Friday, October 31, 2014

NBA: 2014-15 Regular Season Predictions

Raptors (58) Clippers (61)
Bulls (57) Spurs (60)
Cavs (56) Mavs (57)
Wizards (52) Warriors (56)
Hawks (46) Grizzlies (52)
Hornets (45) Suns (50)
Heat (43) Thunder (48)
Knicks (38) Rockets (45)

Nets (36) Blazers (44)
Pistons (35) Pelicans (39)
Bucks (34) Nuggets (38)
Magic (26) Jazz (30)
Celtics (24) Wolves (27)
Pacers (22) Kings (27)
Sixers (10) Lakers (22)

EAST
Raptors -- I think the Raptors hit the ground running this year (a la the Pacers last year).  The Raptors didn't play their best basketball until the end of the year and they are returning the whole band with a bonus Lou Williams.  I think they win early and challenge for the #1 seed all year.

Bulls -- The Bulls have a lot of question marks but last year showed that they can still win games with virtually nothing at all!  So however this roster turns out I think the Bulls will still win most of their games.  If they really come together, they can win it all; even if they don't come together I think they're top 4 in the East and dangerous in the playoffs.

Cavs -- This is a team built for the playoffs, don't think they're that concerned about seeding.  They'll have their growing pains, Love and Kyrie have to adjust to each other, Thompson and Waiters have to figure out their place, Coach Blatt will have to figure out how NBA teams work (I think the game won't flummox him but how to handle an NBA roster is brand new territory).  They'll be fine come playoff time but they might have some brutally awful moments this year.  I can see the Wizards and Raptors ahead of them going into the playoffs.

Wizards -- They seem best equipped to handle whatever comes along, the seemingly perfect mix of veterans (Pierce, Nene, Butler, Miller), grizzled dirty work guys (Gortat, Blair, Humphries) and young pups on the way up (Wall, Beal, Porter).  If they get the right amount of growth to go with the right amount of expected production, they might win a lot of games in the regular season (though the playoffs will be a brand new learning experience for this crew).

Hawks -- They made the playoffs last year without Al Horford or any expectation of success.  Millsapp's in a contract year, Teague is ready to step forward, Horford wants a big return, Korver didn't make the FIBA squad (is this motivating him?  I thought he should've made it).  They've got a nice core in place (for the East) and they've even got some potential upside.  I think they can find success quicker than the Hornets or Heat.

Hornets -- I like the buzz Charlotte is trying to build, nice for them.  But I'm not sure they were actually any good last year and I'm not convinced they'll be much better.  I don't think they get worse though so I figure 6th is about where they should be.

Heat -- An interesting team, a lot of re-adjusting going on but with plenty of upside.  Chris Bosh is a possible MVP contender (long shot because the Heat will be so far from the top but if his output is truly impressive he'll get consideration).  The Heat have enough vets to get by in the East, could be a surprisingly good team.

Knicks -- Well...somebody had to be 8th.  I think the Nets are a mess, the Pistons aren't going to be consistent enough to win many games, the Bucks will be way better than last year and still nowhere near a playoff race, the Magic are interesting kids but not many wins, the Celtics could be dangerously bad, the Pacers had no offense before but now they've got even less than none, the Sixers don't even wanna win.  So that leaves the Knicks.  They've got Melo and a whole new outlook on the game of basketball but not much else.  They could make deals during the season, I suppose, but really I think Melo and just about any supporting cast should make 8th in the East, so I'll bite.

WEST
Clippers -- I think the Clippers play balls out all year long and take the top spot in the West.  I think the core is in place and they all have great years: Jordan gets a big money deal from LAC next summer, CP3 restores himself as the best PG in the league, I think Blake wins MVP and Doc wins Coach of the Year.  I think they grind themselves down and falter in the playoffs but throughout the regular season I expect the Clippers to challenge the Spurs.

Spurs -- They've mastered the regular season but I think winning the championship is all they care about: part of winning the playoffs is letting the Clippers punch themselves out during the regular season.  Even coming in 2nd will look like a masterstroke.

Mavericks -- This team is perhaps more susceptible to injuries than most but I think barring that, they've got a really good rotation that will win more games than they probably should.  I think they're better than the Rockets and Thunder (two teams that have deviled them over the years), they can still handle the up-and-comers (Suns, Pelicans), they'll feast on the lowlier teams, Pau and Love have moved East, all the East stars stayed in the East, everything's coming up Mavericks!  I don't think they go too deep in the playoffs but this regular season could be a monster for them.

Warriors -- I think they get it all worked out, the defense comes together a little bit more, Shaun Livingston does wonders off the bench, and they win many games.  In the loaded West I'm not sure how deep they go in the playoffs, but I think night in/night out they'll be one of the better teams in the league.

Grizzlies -- The Grizz started so slow last year and still gashed their way into the playoffs.  I expect they'll be better this year, challenge the Warriors for 5th in the West.  This is one of those teams that know who they are, know they fit together, but could probably still use some more offense.  A good team, a hard working, industrious team, they'll be a tough out for anyone.

Suns -- Some say this PG-heavy offense is too unorthodox but I disagree.  I think they are a rhythm team and with an excess of quality PG's they keep humming game after game.  They won't sneak up on people like they did last year but they also come in with a whole new kind of confidence than last year.  I think the style catches on and they ride enough win streaks into the playoffs.

Thunder -- I swear I made this projection before Westbrook hurt his thumb but that only reinforces my worries about their precarious lack of depth.  With Durant instead of Westbrook the Thunder still got W's but with Westbrook instead of Durant I'm not sure that's the case.  They could really struggle until Xmas.  Not unlike the Grizzlies last year, I can see them slowly building up as the season goes on, trying to make some noise in the playoffs (Spurs-Thunder in the 1st round?).

Rockets -- Harden is MVP-capable and Howard is still one of the best at what he does.  Not a fan of the supporting cast or the coach but I reckon they'll win enough to make the playoffs.  And when they'll do, they could overachieve--look out Clippers!

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