NBA ROY Update

52 rookies have debuted in the NBA this year.  Right now Julius Randle is still tied for 19th in MPG for rookies, so who are the 19 ahead of him?

Bogdanovich (30.5), Jabari (28.6), Nerlens (27.4), Wiggins (26.9), Payton (24.8), Papanickolau (23.4), McDaniels (23.1), Napier (20.6), LaVine (20.5), Smart (20.4), Rudez (19.9), Exum (18.7), Ingles (16.3), Stauskus (15.6), Anderson (15.4), Hood (15.2), Gordon (15.0), Harris (14.5), Black (14.0)

Bogdanovich is for real, he's a little older, shooting 47% from the floor, not exactly re-inventing basketball but he's holding his own there....and the Nets are a trainwreck.  I fully expect Bogdanovich to keep playing healthy minutes and being a worthy contributor.

Jabari is a heck of a player, confident out there, looks good on offense, struggles a bit still on D, but with Giannis and Sanders out there with him, his D can be masked.  His minutes will probably increase as the year wears on and he gets used to NBA grind.  All of these rookies (the Americans, anyway) will hit the rookie wall some time between January and March.  Parker is getting a lot of minutes, how will he respond to the wall?

Nerlens is gonna get as many minutes as he can stand.  He's gonna be a great shot blocker, not sure yet that he'll be great at anything else (and with the endless stream of undrafted rookie teammates, pretty sure Philly won't be great at anything this year).  I picked Nerlens to be a ROY co-winner because I thought he would be a bright spot in a horrible Philly season, could still happen but that season is looking even more horrible than I imagined and Nerlens might find himself swamped out there.

Wiggins will probably increase his minutes by the end of the year.  The Wolves are a team in flux and Wiggins is the rudder, all the upcoming roster moves (and there will be more) revolve around him.  Again, rookie wall, how does Wiggins respond?  I don't think Wiggins wins ROY but I do think he gets minutes and plays well, but not enough wins or highlights to get votes.

Payton played well while Oladipo was injured, now we'll see how he transitions to coming off the bench, which will probably be his normal role this year.  I picked Payton as a co-winner of the ROY and I think I'm sticking with him for now.  He's played well, his asst-turnover ratio is really good for this point in his burgeoning career, I think he'll have enough highlights, positive moments and the Magic are a fun team to watch.  I'm sticking with Payton as ROY.

Papanickolau is the big surprise to me, didn't see this guy coming.  But he's pretty good out there, handles himself well, not lighting it up but not overwhelmed either.  With the Rockets strange rotation, I reckon he keeps getting minutes and opportunities.

McDaniels hit the ground running, showing some high flying skills and a fearless attitude early in Philly.  But, like Nerlens, I think his team will be so desperately bad that I think he gets worn down by the end of the year.  Even if he maintains his minutes and performance, I just think all that losing will be really draining and he has very little chance of getting a lot of ROY votes.

Napier looks like he belongs on the Heat already, he is steady with the ball and that's exactly what a veteran squad wants to see. I think Napier keeps getting good minutes, I think he plays well and while I don't see him making a run at ROY, I think he'll be a respected player in this league for the foreseeable future.

LaVine is a surprise to me in how many minutes he's averaging considering how long it took him to get on the floor.  He's asst-turnover is pretty fantastic for his limited minutes and I reckon he'll keep getting run in that rotation.  Again, the Wolves have a lot of pieces to move and I don't think LaVine will be one of them, but you never know, he could be in a different jersey by year's end.

Smart has been hurt, so his numbers have frozen lately.  He hustles like a champ and definitely has an NBA body, not quite sure yet about his game but then again not sure about anything the Celtics are doing, still plenty of time for him to blossom.

Rudez should probably get even more minutes in the depleted Pacer rotation.  He's a little older, a veteran, should make the most of his playing time on a bad team.  Doesn't seem like a candidate for ROY because hard to imagine he'll contribute enough to make the Pacers viable, but he'll play and get respect.

Exum will probably be getting more minutes by the end of the year.  It feels to me like Trey Burke is the odd man out in Utah (or maybe Kanter) and that would mean more time for Exum.  He's playing well in limited time, I expect he'll get better.

Joe Ingles is a bit of a fly in the buttermilk for the Jazz: he's playing more minutes and giving more production than I think anyone ever expected he would, thus he is clogging the guard rotation even more than it already was for the Jazz.  I keep waiting for Ingles to drop off but so far so good for the veteran Aussie PG.

Stauskus has yet to impress me but he is still getting playing time.  While everyone is suddenly on the Kings bandwagon, I am not.  I think they're playing the best basketball they're gonna play all year and I wonder whether that means more time and opportunity for Stauskus or less. Not sure where he goes for the rest of the year.

Kyle Anderson will get minutes in the Spurs rotation because everyone gets minutes in the Spurs rotation.  And he'll be good in the Spurs rotation because everyone is good in the Spurs rotation.  Frankly he won't have enough opportunity to win ROY but he should keep getting minutes.

Rodney Hood, along with Exum and Ingles, is another rook fighting for time in that Jazz rotation. He's currently shooting 26% from 3 and I can't help be feel like Hood is another odd man out in Utah.

Aaron Gordon just got hurt for the Magic, out at least a few weeks.  Too bad, he was having fun out there and really just starting to get his feet wet.  Oh well, perhaps being in and out of the lineup will help him sneak past the rookie wall.

Joe Harris....I don't know who that is.  Plays for Cleveland?

Tarik Black is getting Dwight Howard's backup minutes in Houston.  Nice work if you can get it.

PJ Hairston (Hornets), Gary Harris (Nuggets), James Ennis (Heat) and the McDermott/Mirotic platoon look to keep getting minutes and opportunities too.

Still haven't seen Adrien Payne (Hawks) or Mitch McGary (Thunder). They fighting injury concerns or what?  I know that Jerami Grant (Sixers) is coming off an ankle injury but I full expect the Sixers to throw him in for yet another debut soon enough.