Active players that have previously won the 6th Man Award: Ben Gordon (2005), Mike Miller (2006), Leandro Barbosa (2007), Manu Ginobli (2008), Jason Terry (2009), Jamal Crawford (2010, 2014), James Harden (2012), JR Smith (2013).
Harden (Rockets) has long since moved on from his 6th man duties. Gordon (Magic), Miller (Cavs), Barbosa (Warriors) are deep on the bench of talent-rich squads. Ginobli (Spurs) could get some votes but realistically the Spurs are a cohesive unit with no cog more important than any other. Terry (Rockets), Smith (Knicks) are likely to get good 6th Man type minutes, could get hot, could some votes. Crawford is probably a good bet to repeat as he'll be performing the exact same role on what I think will be an even better team.
Just to look for new possibilities, here are the active players that have received 1st place for 6th Man in the past: Hedo Turkoglu (Clippers), Andrei Kirilenko (Nets), Mo Williams (Wolves), Kyle Korver (Hawks), Nate Robinson (Nuggets), Anderson Varejao (Cavs), Paul Millsap (Hawks), Taddeus Young (Wolves), Lou Williams (Raptors), Taj Gibson (Bulls), Jarret Jack (Nets), Kevin Martin (Wolves), Ryan Anderson (Pelicans), Markieff Morris (Suns), Reggie Jackson (Thunder), Vince Carter (Grizzlies).
Turkoglu, Kirilenko, Jack, Martin, Williams, Robinson don't look to get 6th man type minutes. Korver, Millsap, Young, Gibson, Morris are starters these days.
Keep an eye on Varejao, Anderson, Jackson and Carter. Varejao could be a steadying force for the struggling Cavs. Anderson is a helluva player, could be a star coming off the bench for the Pelicans. Jackson might get too many starting minutes to get his proper time off the bench. Carter will be asked to do the same thing he's been doing for the Mavs, should flourish in Memphis, could well nab himself a tasty accolade near the end of his career.
Other notables that have received top ten votes in the past: Channing Frye (Magic), Jose Calderon (Knicks), Chris Andersen (Heat), David Lee (Warriors), Grievius Vasquez (Raptors), Dion Waiters (Cavs).
Frye could be the veteran leader that pushes the Magic into the top 8 in the East. Calderon should feast off the bench for the Knicks. Andersen has a few more years left in him, could be indispensible to winning Bosh an MVP. Lee is a forgotten man in Golden State, he could remake himself coming off the bench for a good squad. Vasquez will get a lot of important minutes with the Raptors this year, could be great. If Waiters gets with the plan, he could have a career year.
Other notables that have never received votes before: Shaun Livingston (Warriors), Gerald Green, Isiah Thomas (Suns), Amare Stoudamire (Knicks).
I think Livingston could really shine off the bench in Golden State. Green and Thomas will be both get big minutes and plenty of focus for the Suns this year. Stoudamire could end his time in New York as an overpaid punchline or he could embrace his bench minutes and look forward to the future with a brilliant year in limited time.
Best bet is Jamal Crawford (especially since my narrative is a dominant Clippers season). But I like the Warriors to go far, so keep an eye on Livingston or Lee.
(One wacky suggestion: Watching the Orlando Magic it is clear that Tobias Harris can play and is ready to take a step forward. While I think he can play just fine with Payton and the starters, I think Harris could be even more valuable coming off the bench, dominating the offense as a 2nd teamer. Also, considering that he did not get his extension picked up, that seems to make him a trade candidate which could find him coming off the bench for a playoff team (Rockets? Knicks?). So while he doesn't look like a 6th Man type guy right now, by the all-star break I think Tobias Harris could be an off the bench badass)
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