Sixers 106-102 Heat (Sixers up 3-1)
The Heat stole Game Two in Philly by playing suffocating defense that caught the Sixers off guard. In Game Three, the Sixers returned the favor and took the control back. The Heat all year long have been built on a weird lineup that can emphasize different aspects on different nights but in the playoffs you have to be who you are and the Heat aren't really anything. The Sixers have a clear strategy built around the Simmons-Embiid-Saric lineup and they can replicate their effort each night in a way that allows the supporting cast to make the necessary contributions. The reinvention the Heat go through night after night can create surprises but in the long run won't defeat a better team in a series. They've got a good coach and a lot of veteran savvy but their inability to produce consistent results dooms them in the post-season. That said, I was surprised that the Heat came up short in Game Four, I thought they'd take it. But the Sixers bullied their way to a victory and the veteran savvy of the Heat were powerless to stop it. Normally young teams don't advance in the playoffs but the recent Warriors-Cavs dominance has created a vacuum for anyone to step up. Simmons and Embiid and Saric look fully capable in the suddenly winnable East. I fully expect the Sixers to win Game Five back in Philly and finish this series.
Blazers 102-119 Pelicans (Pelicans up 3-0)
Blazers 123-131 Pelicans (Pelicans 4-0)
Man, I hope you had Jrue Holiday on your all-defense team because he suffocated Damien Lillard in this series. Throw in that McCollum was mostly invisible til Game Four and there's just no way for the Blazers to steal a win. The Pelicans don't have a great deal of depth but the Rondo-Holiday-Mirotic-Davis line is playing really well right now. (Gotta figure the Warriors will take the Pelicans but this might be that kick in the ass that I thought the Spurs were going to give them) McCollum finally showed up in Game Four and the Pelicans kinda got sloppy down the stretch but the Blazers just didn't have enough to get anything done in their series. When you don't have the best player, then its tough to win a series. But when you don't have the four best players, man, it ain't even a series any more. Davis is the man--that's undisputed--and Rondo and Holiday were the 2nd and 3rd best (take your pick) with Mirotic close behind as #4. I've long thought that if Rajon Rondo is your fourth best player then you can win a championship, I wasn't really thinking of the Pelicans as a contender--but I am now. If Mirotic keeps up his shooting, then the Pelicans are for real. They will give the Warriors something to think about and if the Rockets are gonna fumble with the Wolves and the Cavs are struggling against the Pacers...then...shit...yeah--the Pelicans are a legit contender to win it all. It'd be pretty crazy, that isn't how the NBA works but they are fucking ballin' right now and no one else has shown up yet. (Pelicans-Sixers final? I'm down with that)
Warriors 110-97 Spurs (Warriors up 3-0)
Warriors 90-103 Spurs (Warriors up 3-1)
The Spurs are done. I thought they'd have a game plan that would take advantage of how poorly the Warriors finished then season, but the Warriors are not playing poorly any more (though they still have room to get better). Aldridge is not built to carry this kind of load, Gay and Pau are playing okay, but the perimeter scoring and the transition defense are just not there for the Spurs. And they don't have the depth necessary to throw waves of bodies at the Warriors. The Warriors still need to go up a level but this series isn't in danger. I was surprised that the Warriors let Game Four slip away--Klay was finally mortal and Manu was the old time Manu--you'd think with the Pelicans stomping their way through Portland that the Warriors would want to get the Spurs series over with. But then again consider this: without Steph they are in serious danger against the Pelicans so perhaps letting this opening series drag on is their best move to get Steph back. Look, with Steph I'm confident the Warriors will have enough to outscore most everyone they play, but without Steph they're vulnerable--especially to the Pelicans. Look, man, Draymond is the dominant presence he has been, Iguodala is a shell of himself, Livingston is merely competent off the bench and there's no one else that's gonna step up. Durant and Klay and Steph is still good enough to win it all but without Steph they'll need Klay to be perfect. Are you betting on perfect considering what Holiday just did to Lillard? I expect the Warriors to win Game Five surely by muscle memory but if they stop and think about it, they may let the Spurs win another game or two just to get closer to Steph's return.
Cavs 90-92 Pacers (Pacers up 2-1)
Cavs 100-104 Pacers (Series tied 2-2)
This is the most even series out there. The Pacers are a tight, well-controlled team and at their best they're probably better than the Cavs; the Cavs, like the Heat, have to figure it out night after night and pushing Lebron into the red for 48 minutes a game is their best bet to win games. The key for the Pacers--and this is not a good thing--is Lance Stephenson. When Lance plays...uhh....good?....then they can throw the Cavs off just enough to get a lead or erase one; but when he's awful, which is most of the time (outside of fearlessly punching Lebron James in the head, does he have any basketball skills at all?), he fumbles away whatever advantage the Pacers might have. Benching Lance gives them no wild card but bringing in Lance could kill their momentum. It's a tricky recipe for the Pacers and Lance is the salt: too little and they are bland, too much and the meal is ruined. Which is why I still gotta go with the Cavs. But the Cavs have hardly been dominant or even clearly better than the Pacers which should give the rest of the East hope. I was not one who thought that Lebron was on his way out of Cleveland but Brian Windhorst's recent comments are salient: the earlier the Cavs bow out, the more time Lebron has to consider his options. The Cavs need to keep winning just to survive as a franchise. (Man, they gave away Kyrie last year and now their hero is on his way out, too? Any Patriots fans deeply regretting giving away Garropolo after watching this Cavs-Pacers series?) I still like the Cavs to pull it out in 7 but, man, they look weak. And would they rather see the Raptors or the Wizards?
Raptors 103-122 Wizards (Raptors up 2-1)
Raptors 98-106 Wizards (Series tied 2-2)
The Wizards have at least one or two good games in them and the Raptors are susceptible to crises of confidence. So while the Raptors have been the better, deeper, more complete team in every way so far, this series isn't over because the Raptors are quite capable of gacking this up. I thought the Wizards turned their home court advantage into an opportunity to thug their way back into the series--and the refs let 'em do it. Man, the refs went after Gortat in Toronto but then let Morris bully them back in DC. The refs have already lost control of this series which means the Raptors have to do this by themselves. Upside: if they man up, play their game and beat the Wizards they will be primed for a boost of confidence going into the next round; downside: if they get lost in their own heads and let the Wizards get past them then no one will ever believe in them ever. (Boy, a Raptors-Cavs series will have a real creepy air of apocalypse hanging over it, no?) The Wizards play nasty but that's pretty much all they got (although that act may give the Cavs fits if it comes to that). All they can do is keep swaggering and hope the Raptors blink. This is going seven games, I'll definitely take the home team in Five and Six. Game Seven is probably up to the refs.
Celtics 92-116 Bucks (Celtics up 2-1)
Celtics 102-104 Bucks (Series ties 2-2)
I thought the Bucks would make this series a slopfest and that could be their chance to get by the Celtics. But frankly after the first two games I didn't think the Bucks were savvy enough to even do that, whereas the Celtics are more resilient (Al Horford is their rock) than I gave them credit for. However, back in Milwaukee the Bucks showed that they can indeed muddy up the field and slog their way past the Celtics. They kinda did that in Game One, if they can do it in Game Seven, they'll be moving on. For the Celtics, I've been blown by Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum--they're giving the Celtics faithful plenty to be excited about and with the possibility of Marcus Smart coming back, the Celtics could be in business. I think Smart becomes the wild card, if he can return I'd take the Celtics to move on; but without him, this is a coin flip. Again, I'll take the home teams in Five and Six and then Game Seven is up to the refs.
Rockets 105-121 Wolves (Rockets up 2-1)
Rockets 100-119 Wolves (Rockets up 3-1)
Chris Paul was awful in Game One, James Harden was awful in Game Two...and the Rockets were still up 2-0. Do you see this works? In Game Three the Rockets completely bottomed out and let Derrick Rose walk all over them. But in Game Four they rode one good quarter to control of the series. Oh, man, this series is so annoying. The Rockets haven't bothered to play their game yet (I wonder if they will) but the Wolves suck so bad that the Rockets are still on the brink of winning. (Man, don't you kinda think the Nuggets would at least be more fun to watch?) This is that classic lame-ass 1st round match in an otherwise stellar post-season campaign so far. I assume the Rockets will fuck around and still thoroughly whip the Wolves in Game Five.
Thunder 102-115 Jazz (Jazz up 2-1)
Thunder 96-113 Jazz (Jazz up 3-1)
The Thunder do sometimes slip Raptors-like into self-abnegation rather then swagger and when their shooting dries up, they can really scuffle out there. The upside of a player like Russell Westbrook is you can rely on him to do what needs to be done; the downside is when he doesn't get it done, there's nowhere else to go. Suddenly the Thunder are in a deep dark hole and have yet to do any of that "meshing" we've been assuming they would've done by now. The Jazz, on the other hand, are on cruise control. I watched the Jazz a lot this year and when Gobert came back into the lineup around the all-star game, the Jazz settled into Mitchell as the leader with Rubio and Ingles as the big brothers that provide the structure. Since then the Jazz have been killing everybody with consistency and efficiency. I thought the Thunder would solve the Jazz playing them night after night but...uh...nope, it's the other way around. The Jazz are savvy, man, Mitchell is something brand new and the Jazz know how to ride a rookie. Thunder are at the end of their rope now, could be this is the moment they get their shit together but I'm dubious. I think its over for the Thunder, we hardly knew ye. I'll take the Thunder to bounce in Game Five, but I reckon the Jazz will be ready in Game Six.
Rank 'em
1) Pelicans (daaaaaaaaaamn!)
2) Sixers (sloppy but getting it done, Simmons-Saric-Embiid are ready to win now)
3) Jazz (playing their game their way and its working)
4) Warriors (not a strong 3rd place, incidentally, considering how bad the Spurs are)
5) Rockets (kinda playing like shit, series should be over already and Rockets haven't even started)6) Pacers (they haven't panicked, they're looking pretty good)
7/8) Raptors/Wizards (home team wins all seven games, I'm guessing)
9) Celtics (impressively pulling it together without key players)
10) Bucks (in the slop they're better than the Celtics, keep sloppin' to get ahead)
11) Cavs (still trying to figure themselves out, Pacers might be the kick in the ass they need)
12) Heat (playing hard but not getting lucky and the Sixers are readier than we thought)
13) Thunder (still convinced they'd destroy Utah if they just do it...but I'm giving up on that)14) Blazers (dude, they ran into a buzzsaw)
15) Spurs (yeah, I put the Spurs behind the Blazers, because winning one game took everything they had and still needed the other team to not show up)
16) Wolves (the Rockets are giving them a chance and I still don't believe in them)
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