2017-18 NBA (Awards and pre-season predictions)

MVP
Lebron James (Cavs). In 2015 and 2017 I thought the MVP should've been James Harden because he is the most efficient scoring machine the league has seen in ages. That guy either makes the pass, gets his shot or gets fouled--if you don't foul him, he's just gonna beat you. I'm not a huge fan of his game (I've warmed to him some, used to find him incredibly boring to watch) but he's successful and I think controls a game as well as anyone over the last few years. This year he seems very likely to finally get his much-deserved MVP after guiding the Rockets to the best record in the league.

That said...my pre-season pick for MVP was Lebron James and I'll stick with that. Lebron played all 82 games for a rag-tag team that entered the season after trading away its 2nd best player (for a...bag of magic beans), endured injuries to most of the rest of the supporting cast, had a major upheaval at the trade deadline and even lost their coach for a stretch in March. Meanwhile, Lebron had one of the finest years of his career and held the team together, readying them for a run through the struggling Eastern Conference. In raw numbers, Lebron was one of only three players in the top 20 in Rebounds, Assists and Steals, led the league in Minutes Played, 2nd in the league in FGA (shooting at 54%) and compared to Harden had more Assists, Blocks and and fewer Personal Fouls (oh, and check out my Defensive Player of the Year blurb down below). In short, he played a fuller, more complete season than Harden on a much shakier team. Harden had the better team record but then again Harden had the better team (adding Chris Paul while Lebron lost Kyrie Irving). Yes, we're in a stretch when frankly Lebron and Harden both deserve the MVP pretty much every year. But this year I'd take Lebron James. 2nd: James Harden, 3rd: Anthony Davis (Pelicans), 4th: Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks), 5th: Damien Lillard (Blazers)/Donovan Mitchell (Jazz).


Defensive Player of the Year
Anthony Davis (Pelicans). Led the league in Blocks (by a laaaaaaarge margin!), led the league in Steals + Blocks (only player with over 300), 6th overall in Defensive Rebounds (5th overall in Total Rebounds), 3rd overall in FTA (shot 83%), had a solid Asst:TO rate and was not near the league leaders in Personal Fouls. Played a high level all year long on both ends of the court. 

My pre-season pick was Kawhi Leonard (Spurs), of whom I wrote: "I think Kawhi will have a big year, I'll take him for DPOY". Yeah, uh, wrong on that one. But I also wrote: "Wouldn't be surprised to see (Anthony) Davis become more of a defense-first guy" in mentioning him as a possible DPOY pick. Oddly, of the others I mentioned in my pre-season blurb, only Drummond and Antetokounpo were worthy of mention. I thought the other usual suspects all kinda fell to the side this year: Rudy Gobert (Jazz) played too few games, Deandre Jordan (Clippers) had nice numbers but nothing superlative, Draymond Green (Warriors) was off the leaderboard in most of the crucial stats, Hassan Whiteside (Heat) seemed to complain more than play this year. I think Gobert will win but, I dunno man, he didn't play enough. Davis carried his team, I'd reward him first.

1st team all-defense: G: Ben Simmons (Sixers), Victor Oladipo (Pacers), F: Lebron James (Cavs), Anthony Davis (Pelicans), C: Andre Drummond (Pistons)

2nd team all-defense: G: Jrue Holiday (Pelicans), Josh Richardson (Heat), F: Paul George (Thunder), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks), C: Joel Embiid (Sixers)


Rookie of the Year
Ben Simmons (Sixers). Its easy to say it was a two-man race this year but...no...it was Ben Simmons all the way. He led all rookies in Minutes Played, Free Throw Attempts, Rebounds, Assists, Steals, and was top 4 in Blocks and Field Goal Attempts. No one else even comes close. Let me state for the record that, for me, the ROY is a forward-looking rather than backward-looking award, meaning that I think the award is not who had the best rookie season (which was Simmons, incidentally) but who showed the most promise for future badassness. Considering that Simmons is already better than the rest of his class--and he can't shoot worth a shit!--I'm convinced that he still has great room for improvement (indeed, as great as this kid was this year, he deserves to be publicly flogged for his truly abysmal free throw shooting, Coach Brown needs to convince him that he's hurting his team by being so awful at so basic a feature of the game). And leading the hapless-for-as-long-as-anyone-can-remember Sixers to 3rd place in the East is a staggering achievement. Honestly, even considering anyone else would make you look foolish in front of your children.

But for those that want to reach for Donovan Mitchell (Jazz) instead, let me say: 1) No, Simmons was better; 2) Yes, Simmons is a rookie (not even sure what that line of thinking was meant to yield); 3) considering that I see this award as forward-looking, I'd be more inclined to put Mitchell lower on my list rather than higher. In ranking the rookies this year I came up with a clear top 9 (and then a tie for 10th):

1) Simmons (Sixers), 2) Mitchell (Jazz), 3) Jayson Tatum (Celtics) (really impressed with his effort, his demeanor, his skills and his chances to get even better), 4) Lauri Markkanen (Bulls) (I waaaaaay underestimated this kid, good skills all over the court, good head on his shoulders, important leader on a bad Bulls team), 5) Kyle Kuzma (Lakers) (dang, that kid can score, gonna get better too), 6) Bogdan Bogdanovic (Kings) (I loved this kid's feel for the game, I kinda think if he was swapped with Tatum on the Celtics this year, there wouldn't have been much difference), 7) Dennis Smith (Mavs) (yeah, his defense is kinda terrible, he shot too much, he tried to do too much, but he was all alone on that team but he can put on a show and I think he's got room to greatly improve his efficiency and leadership), 8) Dillon Brooks (Grizzlies) (must admit: I didn't watch the Grizzlies once this year, my take on him is completely based on his stats, which were solid but I gotta give him an Incomplete on the eye test), 9) John Collins (Hawks) (man his team was terrible but he showed flashes of a young Dwight Howard, great rebounder, good shot blocker, decent offensive game, I think he's gonna be good). And at 10th I had a toss up of: De'Aaron Fox (Kings) (had moments this year which suggest he could be a real crafty PG), Josh Jackson (Suns) (I thought he was the best pure athlete in last year's draft and he kinda showed that, just needs to learn to shoot better and he'll be all right), Lonzo Ball (Lakers) (went from overrated to underrated and back again a few times this year, the hype that surrounded him led to unrealistic expectations and a poor sense of evaluation, but in the end I think he's gonna be pretty good and a Laker for a long time), Frank Nkilitina (Knicks) (not great season but tantalizing to be sure, he looks like a defensive wizard, could turn into a version of Donovan Mitchell which the Knicks sorely need).

Let me return to my Mitchell screed above: as good as Mitchell was I think he's much closer to reaching his full potential than anyone else in my top nine and he's on a more complete team than any of those other guys, too. So not only was Mitchel not the best this past year, I'm not completely convinced he'll even be in the top ten of this class when all is said and done. Dang! Kinda seems like I hate Donovan Mitchell, don't I? Not at all, I love his game actually, I just think the hype in his direction isn't nearly as deserved as it seems. Mitchell had a great rookie year and he was as important to his new team as any rookie (well, any rookie not named Simmons). But I think the Donovan Mitchell we've already seen is the Donovan Mitchell we're going to get. And the Utah Jazz may well have peaked in this incarnation--indeed, it was the unexpected contribution of Mitchell that made this Jazz team as good as they were--so are we sure that Mitchell will get better? Or that the Jazz will get better? No and no. I'm inclined to think that Tatum has room to get better on a team that will play for championships, I think Markkanen and Collins have the potential to carry even heavier loads going forward, Smith could still turn into a super star and Kuzma and Bogdanovic have great room to get better as their teams get better (ditto with Fox and Ball and Nkilitina). So in that sense, rather than putting Mitchell ahead of Simmons, I'm more inclined to put him behind everyone else. (Yeah....I said it)

I mentioned most of these guys in my pre-season blurb, where I took Simmons as the winner. I also mentioned Jonathon Isaac (Magic) who was hurt for much of the season and Malik Monk (Hornets) who was a serious disappointment. But I failed to mention Markkanen, Brooks and Collins, who were all much better than I anticipated. Pretty good rookie class considering I never even mentioned Jarret Allen (Nets) or Bam Adebayo (Heat), who both had fine rookie campaigns.


6th Man of the Year
Lou Williams (Clippers). Wow....just wow. No idea Lou still had it in him but he was as money off the bench as anyone in this league. Got himself a long term contract out of it, too. I didn't see it coming but, frankly, he's the obvious choice. I'd have to say Will Barton (Nuggets), Kyle Kuzma (Lakers), Bobby Portis (Bulls), Eric Gordon (Rockets) and Marco Belinelli (Hawks/Sixers) are the only others even worth mentioning and none of them merit consideration ahead of Williams.

My pre-season pick was Marcus Smart (Celtics), with suggestions to keep an eye on Terry Rozier (Celtics) and Donovan Mitchell (Jazz). Smart was in and out of the lineup all year long and did not put up particularly notable numbers. But in my defense let me suggest that Smart is the ultimate 'eye test' player: he doesn't put up big numbers and isn't a very good shooter but when you watch the Celtics they certainly look better when he's in there. (PJ Tucker (Rockets) has a similar effect: the box score doesn't show much but your eyes will see the difference he makes) Curious to see what the Celtics do with Smart this off-season; surely they'll let him go but, man, I think they'll miss him if he's not there next year.


Most Improved
Victor Oladipo (Pacers). This one is an easy call. Trading Oladipo for Paul George seemed like the steal of the century at the time, but that apparently inspired Oladipo to remake his game (and his body!) and after a few intriguing but frustrating years in the league, he finally had the bust-out season that he looked capable of when he came out of Indiana back in the day.

I didn't research this category much and I didn't do a pre-season pick for this but I'd also suggest another ex-Russell Westbrook teammate: Taj Gibson (Wolves). Yeah, Taj probably played too much but he does a lot for that team and still has more left in the tank than I would've thought.


Coach of the Year
Dwayne Casey (Raptors). Last year the Raptors played well and remolded their roster to finally go toe-to-toe with their hated rivals, the Cavs. The result: the Cavs whipped them in 4--and none of the games were close! It was as severe a thrashing as I can recall: the Raptors rolled in with maximum swagger and firepower and got treated like an extra in a Scorsese film. The salary cap was maxed in a way that allowed for no movement last summer, too, since the team that got rolled had no choice but to run out the same zombies chasing the same ghosts. And yet, Coach Casey managed to get his team to a whole new level with just the right mix of strategy and encouragement and a deft handling of the best bench in the league. I was never terribly impressed with Casey but this year I thought he elevated his game and brought his team to a whole new level and though there are a lot of good choices this year, I really that Casey had the single biggest impact on his team's success. (Now...what happens when Lebron comes to town this year...?)

This is a tough category because there were a lot of coaches that really had great years. I suspect Brad Stevens (Celtics) will win, but Quin Snyder (Jazz) will get a lot of love, as will Nate MacMillan (Pacers) and Brett Brown (Sixers) and Terry Stotts (Blazers). Of course, Mike D'antoni (Rockets) had the best record and though perennial favorite Gregg Popovich (Spurs) had his worst season in as long as anyone can remember, he may actually have been more impressive this year than ever before.

My pre-season picks were Steve Clifford (Hornets) and Mike Malone (Nuggets) on the thinking that their teams could make big moves. In the case of the Hornets...I dunno, I just had this weird premonition that the Dwight Howard thing was gonna work (I know, right?) and that Clifford would look like a genius. Didn't happen, in fact Coach Cliff got fired today (hey, better than hanging around Dwight Howard for another year). As for the Nuggets, they had moments of up and moments of down and one could argue they did make the playoffs: their 82nd game was a win-and-in contest that didn't fall their way. But though the Nuggets have pieces and a great home court advantage, expecting them to go deep in the Western Conference was a bit of a chimera on my part. I certainly don't think Malone will get any Coach of the Year votes but I don't expect him to get fired either.


Executive of the Year
Daryl Morey (Rockets) (with Danny Ainge (Celtics) a very close 2nd). Bringing in Chris Paul was a masterstroke and he's the one that did--and getting it done required a million little moves that are long since forgotten. But it was the move that elevated his star to MVP-level and his team to the best record in the league. Kudos, gotta give up to the best.

I figured this award would be a race between Danny Ainge (Celtics) and Sam Presti (Thunder), though I gave Ainge the edge because he was fielding a top notch squad entirely of his own making whereas Presti made (I thought) one trade too many. Speaking of, doesn't Kevin Pritchard (Pacers) have to get some votes here? 4 of their 6 top scorers weren't on the roster the year before and swapping Paul George for Victor Oladipo didn't seem like a great move at the time but it sure made the Pacers a better team. I was impressed by Koby Altman's (Cavs) moves at the trade deadline and with Neil Olshey (Blazers) not making any panic moves (sometimes you've got to trust what you've put togeter).