2017-18 NBA Playoffs (2nd round)

West
Pelicans-Warriors
The Pelicans were the best team in the 1st round, destroying the Blazers in every way for four straight games. Not much depth (man, Solomon Hill was kinda awful and Ian Clark is more hindrance than help) but their main rotation looks like the best in the league right now. The Warriors don't have anything to stop Anthony Davis (Draymond is not the answer), might lose Klay Thompson's brilliance if Jrue Holiday keeps up his torrid defensive work, won't deter playoff Rondo (doesn't matter who his opponent is), and could be matched if Mirotic can keep up his hot hand. The Warriors never looked into it this season, coasted at the outset and then seriously coasted after it was clear the Rockets were gonna take the top spot. With Durant, Steph, Klay and Draymond they still have enough to be the best in the league but they haven't shown that yet. Against the Spurs Durant was Durant and Klay was terrific but outside of a nice showing from JaVale McGee, the rest of the cast didn't show: Steph hasn't played in almost a month, Draymond is more bluster than brilliance lately, Iguodala is a shell of himself and Livingston is merely competent. I thought the Spurs would wake them up but the Spurs without Kawhi aren't much of a team. So they've continued to coast. The Warriors were my pre-season pick to win it all and my pick again at the beginning of the playoffs, obviously I think they are (or can be) the best. But I haven't seen them play like the best in so long and outside of their main four guys, I have no faith in their bench (and only marginal faith in Draymond or Steph right now), and they did not get the 1st round wake up call I thought they needed. This is tough because I was so impressed with the Pelicans and we're only now seeing what Anthony Davis can do. I gotta go with the Warriors in 7 under the assumption that this is the wakeup call they need (but, man, if Holiday shuts down Klay....whew, this series gets very close).

Jazz-Rockets
I've never had faith in the playoff capabilities of James Harden or Chris Paul and I think without those two at their best the Rockets don't have much else to go on. Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon are solid and have moments of going above and beyond but I haven't been blown away by any of them lately. Gerald Green can fill it up but he can also get over his skis and Joe Johnson frankly doesn't fit the way the Rockets play and I think won't contribute much. I like Clint Capela as much as the next guy but he needs a lot of service from Chris Paul to be really effective and PJ Tucker is a dirty work guy, not a game changer. You may think that after the way they dusted off the Wolves with some truly sub-standard performances from Harden and Paul that my thesis is actually already disproved; but I say no, that just shows what a mess the Wolves are. The Jazz in that sense are the anti-Wolves: they play as a team, they know their roles and no one overdoes it. On their end I'm a little worried about Rubio hobbling out of their last game against OKC, it is Rubio and Ingles as the big brothers that create the framework for Donovan Mitchell to succeed. Favors and Gobert can easily counter Capela and keep Harden honest on the inside. (And I can't help noting Alec Burks lighting it up in his brief appearances in Games One and Six; he's been there so long and fallen so far out of favor, you know he wants a chance to gets some work in) So it comes down to shooting: if the Rockets shoot the lights out, they should win easily; but if they struggle from the perimeter, the Jazz have a real shot. Some are pointing to the regular season dominance Houston exhibited over Utah but I would point out that all four of those games were early in the season before the true emergence of Mitchell, so I don't think they're representative of who these teams are now. I had OKC beating the Rockets in the 2nd round (that was my pre-season pick and my pre-playoffs pick, too), so I'm open to the idea that the Rockets won't move on. My gut is the Jazz aren't quite ready to do it but since this is all about the Rockets and not their opponent, that doesn't even matter. The Jazz just took out OKC--who I already thought was better suited for the playoffs than the Rockets. So I'll take the Jazz in 6. I think Harden and Paul flounder, the Rockets have no second option and the Jazz play their game and succeed.


East
Bucks-Celtics (Game Seven)
The home team has won every game so far. I predicted as much and so I'm not shocked by this development. The emergence of Jaysun Tatum and Jaylen Brown flanking Al Horford has been the framework for the Celtics--and it's a good one! Adding in Marcus Smart gives them a little more grit, should make 2-3 plays that cement the lead. Baynes will reliably contribute. The high risk/reward wild cards are Marcus Morris and Terry Rozer: if they just play hard, they'll be fine but if they try to do too much, they could shoot the Bucks back into the game. The Bucks are Giannis...and I dunno, some other guys. Khris Middleton has played well, Malcolm Brogdon has been good, Tony Snell and Tyler Zeller have been fine but in a Game Seven I don't see them as difference makers. And the surprise contribution of Thon Maker in Milwaukee will not translate to Boston. Eric Bledsoe hasn't been great, not sure that he makes any great improvement in the final game. The Bucks have one move they can make and that is to maximize Jabari Parker. Parker has been good, if inconsistent so far, but if he blows up tonight, he can make the different for the Bucks. Ehh, I'm betting that doesn't happen. I'll go with the Celtics.

Pacers-Cavs (Game Seven).
The Cavs go as far as Lebron drags them. If Lebron gets that vacant look in his eyes, then the whole stadium will feel it. If he's scuffling, if he's passing instead of attacking, if he's lingering on the bench instead of playing his regular 45 minutes, everyone will know and the Cavs will clench up. The Pacers will be liberated and they will run wild. That's the scenario for a Cavs loss. The scenario for a Cavs win is Lebron doing everything and doing it better than the entire other team. If the Pacers just play a smart, consistent game, they will put a lot of pressure on Lebron and that's the very dangerous place for the Cavs: if Lebron has to do it all by himself and he comes up short....man, he ain't gonna be back with the Cavs next year. I don't know who wins this game. I guess I'd go with the Cavs but the nightmare scenario is brewing.