2017-18 NBA Playoff Predictions

East
Raptors over Wizards (5)
Bucks over Celtics (7)
Sixers over Heat (7)
Cavs over Pacers (5)

The Raptors are notoriously slow starters in the post-season and the Wizards have generally overachieved in the John Wall era. But I think that's ready to flip this year. The Raptors have tightened up and are playing better than ever while the Wizards are wreck that are falling apart quickly. I think the Raptors will come in strong and stay strong while the Wizards come in with empty swagger and look awful on their way out.

If the Celtics had Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward and Marcus Smart to go with the rest of their lineup and the great Brad Stevens to lead them, I'd say they would destroy the Bucks. But Smart is gone, Hayward is long gone and Kyrie doesn't seem likely to return any time soon. So while I still love Stevens' ability to get the most out of what he has left, mostly what he has is an overworked rookie, which is like bringing a wine cooler to the Theta Chi kegger. The Bucks are a sloppy mosh pit of a team and, again, if they were going up against a full Celtics squad, I'd give them no shot at all. But they have Giannis and a bunch of weird athletes. I think the Celtics fight to the end but I'm going with Giannis in Game Seven.

The Sixers haven't lost a game in...like...forever, which is not something we've seen from the Sixers since Iverson (maybe Barkley--hell, maybe Julius!). Simmons has allowed the team to fall into place and they're riding high going into the post-season. But they are still a bunch of untested joes and they'll be starting off without their other MVP, Embiid. The Heat bring in a bunch of hungry veterans and a really good coach, I wouldn't be surprised to see Miami steal Game One and put the pressure on them. From there we'll see what the Sixers are made of. I think the Sixers are the better team and will figure it out (wouldn't be surprised if they destroy the Heat in Game Seven) but it is worth noting that 2 of their last 3 losses were to Miami (and frankly they got lucky to escape with a W the previous time they played Miami).

Lebron tends to sweep through the 1st round but this Pacers team is one of the better teams he's ever faced in the 1st round and this Cavs team is just a collection of guys and Lebron. I expect the Pacers to play the Cavs for about 3 games and then for Lebron to put the hammer down and crush their dreams. We'll see.


Cavs over Raptors (6)
Sixers over Bucks (5)

I want to believe in the Raptors and I think they'll be feeling pretty good when they face the Cavs in the 2nd round. I think they'll win a couple and be competitive but I expect Lebron to find a way and I expect the Raptors not to.

The Sixers will get pushed by the Heat while the Bucks will be playing with house money. But though both of these teams are young and sloppy, I expect the Sixers to tighten up and make their most of their advantages, while the Bucks flounder and flail.


Cavs over Sixers (6)

By the time the Cavs get to the conference finals they will have played their two toughest Eastern opponents in years. They'll be rolling, they'll know what they need to do and they won't be afraid of the upstart Sixers. The Sixers will feel lucky to beat the Heat and overconfident after dusting off the Bucks. They'll play hard, maybe even win Game One in a blowout. Then the Cavs will rear up, cut Simmons down to size and take them in Six (oh yeah, they won't let the Sixers get back home for Game Seven). Cavs rally and cruise back into the Championship.


West
Rockets over Wolves (4)
Warriors over Spurs (7)
Blazers over Pelicans (7)
Thunder over Jazz (5)

The Wolves are...I'll say it....roughly 30 seconds better than the Nuggets. They're lucky to be here and the Rockets will make quick work of them. Not much more to say than that.

The Spurs had their weakest season since before Tim Duncan arrived and the Kawhi turmoil hung over them like last night's fish dinner in a way that we don't generally see in San Antonio. Seems like they'd be easy pickings for the all-world Warriors but, man, the Warriors were quite underwhelming this season. They cycled through injuries like everyone else but their bench is the weakest its been in years, their killer instinct seems to have evaporated and they've been downright bad for the last 3-4 weeks. They still don't have Steph and they haven't looked this vulnerable since Mark Jackson was relying on Jarret Jack. The Spurs are down but they're still savvy and they know that now is their best shot at scoring an improbable upset. I suspect this series will look just like that until Game Seven, when the Warriors will wake up Serena-style and remind everyone they're still the best.

I'm kinda bummed to see the Blazers and Pelicans playing each other in the 1st round because they strike me as the two best chances at scoring a weird upset on somebody else (like when the two kooky NCAA sleeper teams get matched up in the tournament and you're think, 'Man, we could've two good games instead of one!'). Blazers just keep doing it year after year, I'm never sure how and though it felt like this would be the year when it finally fell apart, here they are in 3rd place. The Pelicans finally seem to have found a place where they can make the most of the great Anthony Davis and in the post-season the skimpiness of their bench will be less of an Achilles' Heal. With Holiday healthy and Mirotic in the fold, this is the best the Pelicans have been since Chris Paul left town. But in the end I gotta go with the veteran squad, the unified squad with their long time coach on their home floor though I can totally see Davis having a monster--MONSTER--game. Man, that Game Seven is gonna be a good one!

When the Thunder got Paul George, I thought they were ready to dominate. I thought Westbrook and PG were gonna be great together and bringing in Felton and Patterson to go with Adams, Roberson, Kanter and McDermott was gonna give them everything they needed to challenge the Warriors and Rockets. Then they traded for Melo and I was disappointed: they already had stars, they needed to work on molding their role players rather than trading an aging ball hog. By the end of the regular season they seemed to have (kinda) figured it out but they still lack the dirty work guys--too many chiefs, not enough braves. The Jazz are led by the phenom rookie Donovan Mitchell and likely DPOY Rudy Gobert and a helluva coach in Quin Snyder. Unfortunately, that's kinda all they got: a rookie, a shotblocker and a coach that's never been this far. Ehh, I think this is Westbrook's time. I think Westbrook will not be stopped, George can fluster Mitchell and the rest of the OKC cast is superior to that of Utah. The Jazz have had a fine season while the Thunder have had a shaky one. But I think that flips back here and the Thunder dropkick the Jazz.


Thunder over Rockets (6)
Warriors over Blazers (5)

And the Thunder continues to roll. Okay, I've long had my doubts about the post-season abilities of Chris Paul (too intense to play the same team over and over again--and then a better team over and over again after that) and James Harden (too flaky, when he has a bad night, he tends to run and hide) and Mike D'antoni (he'll have no buttons to push when his two stars disappoint). Until those guys actually do it, I remain skeptical regardless of how good they were in the regular season (shades of the 2014-15 Atlanta Hawks--yeah I said it). The Thunder will play with fury and anger, Westbrook will fustigate CP, PG will give Harden all he can handle, Melo will finally feel at home knocking down 3's on Trevor Ariza, Adams will show Capela how it's done and everyone will wonder why the Thunder weren't better all year long. I like OKC to finish them at home in Game Six.

Once the Warriors find themselves in an old fashioned dogfight with the Spurs, the Blazers will seem like easy pickings. The Warriors will regain their old form of piling up points in a hurry and the Blazers will be backpedaling quickly. I like the Warriors to find the groove right away.


Warriors over Thunder (7)

If this post-season goes the way I've described it so far, then god damn, won't this series be the shit?!?  (Damn, I really hope I'm right!) The Thunder won't be afraid of the Warriors and after they've dusted off the Rockets, they'll be delighted to get back to the old days of going toe-to-toe with the best of the bunch. But the Warriors by this point will be back and just like old times, they'll drop a bomb on them in Game Seven. Warriors back to the Finals for the 4th straight year.


Warriors over Cavs (4)

Huh....didn't realize that's where I was going when I sat down to do this preview. Yeah, I think the Warriors will get pushed by the Spurs, find their groove against the Blazers, get tested again by the Thunder and find their groove again against the Cavs. I think the Cavs will work harder than they've worked in years past--and this could be the sunset of their Eastern dominance--but I think they, too, will overcome the hurdles and get back to the Finals. And this nightmare season of struggling Cavs and frail-looking Warriors will be back to where we always knew it was gonna go.


And, yes, I'm still cleaving pretty close to my pre-season picks. I had 6 out of 8 in each conference: Hornets and Pistons instead of Sixers and Pacers in the East; Nuggets and Clippers instead of Blazers and Pelicans in the West. And my pre-season final four was Cavs, Celtics, Warriors, Thunder; unless Kyrie and Smart return--which isn't impossible--I'll go ahead and air brush the Celtics out of the picture. The regular season played out kinda weird but I still see the same horizon I saw back in the beginning. We'll see.