2017-18 NBA Predictions

MVP

Westbrook (Thunder), Harden (Rockets), Paul (Rockets), Butler (Wolves) and Towns (Wolves) all got paired with teammates that would seem likely to diminish their MVP credentials. While Lebron (Cavs) got even more limelight for himself, Blake Griffin (Clippers) has more burden to shoulder, Giannis (Bucks) is still the man on his team, and I think Kawhi (Spurs) has a big year ahead. Some edgy choices could be Jokic (Nuggets), Wall (Wizards), Kemba (Hornets) and don't be surprised if Lonzo (Lakers) gets some love and I'm curious to see how Porzingis (Knicks) blows up.

The talk is that Lebron is hot to win another MVP and though everyone says that every year, I think he's got a good shot this time. As the class of clear candidates dwindles, unless someone emerges as an obvious winner, I think the vote tends toward Lebron.


Rookie of the Year

In addition to the 2017 draft picks that will debut this year, there are a handful of notable picks from previous drafts that should debut this year as well. 2016: Simmons (Sixers), Yabusele (Celtics), Korkmaz (Sixers), Zhou Qi (Rockets), Zizic (Cavs), Zagorac (Grizzlies), Nader (Celtics); 2015: Dakari Johnson (Thunder), Osman (Cavs); 2014: Bogdanovic (Kings). And there are always another handful of undrafted rookies that will appear.

There are different ways that rookies can bust out. Some guys will clearly show themselves to be top quality NBA talent regardless of their position, some guys will make overwhelming contributions to bad teams, some will be reliable rotation players right away, some will pile up highlights without necessarily proving themselves to be worthy rotation guys. Personally I think the ROY Award is a forward-looking rather than backward-looking award meaning that I'm more interested in finding which players show themselves to be better for the future as opposed to which rookie just had the best season; so for example, I would've chosen Embiid (Sixers) over Brogdon (Bucks) last year. Yes, Brogdon had a fuller season, played more games, piled up more stats, contributed more to his team; but, who cares? Brogdon didn't make the All-NBA team, didn't lead the league in anything, didn't guide his team deep in the playoffs, so what difference does it make that he played more games than Embiid? When Embiid was on the court he showed me that he has a greater potential to be a great player than Brogdon (I like Brogdon and he had a hell of a year, he's not a bad choice), so I would've awarded the ROY to Embiid.

I'd say the clear favorites are Simmons (Sixers), Bogdanovic (Kings), Ball (Lakers), Fox (Kings), Isaac (Magic), Smith (Mavs), Monk (Hornets), Mitchell (Jazz), and of course everyone has their eye on Kuzma (Lakers). I would also add Jackson (Suns), who I thought was the best pure prospect in this draft, and Tatum (Celtics), who probably won't get votes but I expect him to be an important contributor on a top team. And the crazy long shots I got my eye on are Ivan Rabb (Grizzlies) because I think he could be such a perfect fit that he's kinda of a badass by year's end and Zhou Qi (Rockets), simply because I'm intrigued by the wide variance of opinions on his talent going into last year's draft.

I'll take Simmons (Sixers). I think that kid is going to be the creamy center of an exciting young team and he'll take the Sixers however far they're gonna go. Getting to the free throw line will help him develop a jump shot.


Defensive Player of the Year

This category should still be dominated by the usual suspects: Gobert (Jazz), Deandre (Clippers), Draymond (Warriors), Kawhi (Spurs), Drummond (Pistons), Whiteside (Heat). If you're looking for a newcomer: Sefolosha (Jazz), Giannis (Bucks), MKG (Hornets), Noquiera (Raptors), wouldn't be surprised to see Davis (Pelicans) become more of a defense-first guy.

I think Kawhi will have a big year, I'll take him for DPOY.


6th Man of the Year

I looked over the guys last year that played the most minutes and had the most games played while starting less then half of their team's games. I think there's a pretty good chance that the 2017-18 6th Man winner comes from this list of players (and their current teams): Marcus Smart (Celtics), Eric Gordon (Rockets (2016-17 6th Man)), Brandon Ingram (Lakers), Allen Crabbe (Nets), PJ Tucker (Rockets), Wilson Chandler (Nuggets), Nik Stauskus (Sixers), Tyler Johnson (Heat), Jamal Crawford (Wolves (2015-16 6th Man)), Tim Hardaway (Knicks), Dario Saric (Sixers), James Johnson (Heat), Austin Rivers (Clippers), Jameer Nelson (Nuggets), Andre Iguodala (Warriors), Lou Williams (Clippers (2014-15 6th Man)), Jordan Clarkson (Lakers), Terry Rozier (Celtics), Jason Terry (Bucks), Willie Cauley-Stein (Kings), Kelly Olynyk (Heat), Shaun Livingston (Warriors), Norman Powell (Raptors), Sam Dekker (Clippers), Kelly Oubre (Wizards), Jamal Murray (Nuggets), Enes Kanter (Knicks), Willy Hernangomez (Knicks), Justin Anderson (Sixers)

There hasn't been a rookie to win since Ben Gordon in 2005 and the only three rookies that seem like possibilities to me would be Jonathon Isaac (Magic), Malik Monk (Hornets), Donovan Mitchell (Jazz).

I think a lot of these guys will move to the starting lineup (Ingram, Crabbe, Hardaway, Saric, Rivers, Murray, either Kanter or Hernangomez, and maybe Cauley-Stein, possibly Isaac and Monk, too). Of the three previous winners I expect Eric Gordon to get lost in the shuffle, Crawford and Williams to have not particularly noteworthy seasons. Iguodala and Stevenson pretty much deserve it every year and have yet to win, I expect this year to be similar. I don't expect the Nuggets vets (Chandler, Nelson) or the Sixers youngsters (Stauskas, Anderson) to move the needle. I expect a lot of guys to play plenty of important minutes but never catch the eye: Clarkson (Lakers), Tyler Johnson (Heat), Terry (Bucks), Olynyk (Heat), Powell (Raptor).

I'll go with Marcus Smart (Celtics). He'll play a lot, he'll be integral to the rotation, he'll make a lot of highlight plays and he'll be contributing to a very good squad but he probably won't start many games. (Terry Rozier (Celtics) is a good choice for all the same reasons; keep an eye on Mitchell (Jazz), he won't start but he'll play a lot, could really make them a better team and get consideration, I kinda like Oubre (Wizards) and Dekker (Clippers) to make worthwhile contributions off the bench too)


Coach of the Year

The season could go so many ways, its hard to tell which coaches will make the biggest contributions (and who will get the credit). So I'll pick a candidate from each conference.

If the Nuggets make a big move this year it'll be based on how Mike Malone (Nuggets) juggles the various lineups he could field. If he's got a deft touch, the Nuggets could be the big surprise of the West.

Likewise for Steve Clifford (Hornets) in the East. The Hornets are a bizarre collection of players but if Coach Cliff can get the pieces to cohere, the Hornets might be way better than they ought to be.


Executive of the Year

This is a dual between Sam Presti (Thunder) and Danny Ainge (Celtics). Presti pulled off two of the most amazing trades in recent memory in a span of two months! (Personally I think the second trade was unnecessary and could shatter the team, but we'll see) If the Thunder are as good as they can be, I don't see how anyone other than Presti wins this. That said, Ainge pulled off a hell of a trade himself and is fielding a roster entirely of his own making. If the Celtics finish 1st in the East (which I think they will), a lot of the credit has to go to the fine roster construction of Danny Ainge.


Post-Season Prediction

Celtics over Pistons; Warriors over Jazz
Raptors over Hornets; Thunder over Wolves
Cavs over Bucks; Rockets over Clippers
Wizards over Heat; Spurs over Nuggets

Celtics over Wizards (in 7); Warriors over Spurs (in 7)
Cavs over Raptors (in 5); Thunder over Rockets (in 6)

Cavs over Celtics (in 6); Warriors over Thunder (in 7)

Warriors over Cavs in 5