2017-18 NBA Preview: Southwest Division

Rockets
PG Paul, SG Harden, SF Anderson, PF Ariza, C Capela
Bench: SG Gordon, SF Tucker/Mbah a Moute, PF Black/Zhou Qi, C Nene/Onuaku

Another one of the numerous notable trades this summer netted the Rockets Hall of Fame PG Chris Paul to go alongside unstoppable scoring machine James Harden. Instantly hailed as a great move, it vaulted the Rockets into the discussion of teams that could go to battle with the Warriors. Ehhhh....I don't see it. I like CP as much as the next guy but I think he and Harden are a terrible combination: they both need the ball all the time and their personalities could not be more diametrically opposed. And if either of them gets hurt, there's no depth behind them (obviously they'd be hard to replace under any circumstances but this lack of depth is kinda scary). And all that said: Paul is getting older, getting more injury-prone and was never much of a presence in the post-season at his best. This is one those moves that seems like a no-brainer at the time but by next summer I think could look like a big ol' albatross. Oh, don't get me wrong, I'm sure they'll figure out how to co-exist but I don't think this makes them stronger in the post-season or the future. It'll be interesting to see what Paul gets out of Capela and I'm curious about Zhou Qi, a completely forgotten Chinese prospect who rocked up and down the 2016 mock draft boards (what if he's Porzingis?). In the end, I'll take them to finish 3rd in the West (and get drilled by OKC in the 2nd round) but I don't see them as a juggernaut in the making. I think they'll get 56 wins.

Spurs
PG Mills, SG Green, SF Kawhi, PF Aldridge, C Gasol
Bench: PG Murray/Parker, SG Forbes, SF Anderson, PF Gay, C Lauvergne

Every year we wonder if the Spurs can keep it going and every year they do even though we think they can't. If Kawhi gets hurt, this team will flounder but if he stays healthy I think they'll be their usual top quality selves. I don't know if Murray starts right away but I'd start Mills, letting Parker get in 15-20 minutes off the bench. Sounds like they're moving backwards but that looks pretty good to me. Aldridge has taken a lot of abuse lately but I still believe in him (the problem is his game was never Pop's game and vice versa), if he can carve out some space for himself he can still pile on points. Pau and Gay round out the veterans, Anderson and Forbes are the up-and-comers, I say pencil them in for 53 wins (and we'll call it a disappointment).

Pelicans
PG Rondo, SG Holliday, SF Allen , PF Davis, C Cousins
Bench: PG Crawford/Jackson, SG Clark/Miller/Moore, SF Cunningham/Hill, PF Diallo, C Ajinca/Ask

Okay, this is it for the Pelicans. They've got til February to figure out what to do with Cousins, which invariable will be trading him (don't ya think?). And if Cousins goes...*sigh*....Anthony Davis should go too. When they first drafted Davis they immediately went into win-now mode which unfortunately did not work and hamstrung their salary cap for years. I'd never suggest getting rid of a great player but even great players need some service and the Pelicans have failed to serve their great players. Now they have TWO great players neither of whom will flourish in what the Pelicans have built. Now is the time to get what they can for Cousins, get the best package possible for Davis (the Celtics still have plenty of worthwhile pieces), stretch Asik and start piling up draft picks to pack around Holliday....oh, wait, that sounds like a terrible idea. Man, the Cousins-Davis thing has to work or this disaster just keeps going. Oh well. Even with all the turmoil I still like the Pelicans to be marginally better. 38 wins.

Mavs
PG Smith, SG Barnes, SF Matthews, PF Nowitzki, C Nerlens
Bench: PG Farrell/Barea/Harris, SG Curry, SF McRoberts/Finney-Smith, PF Powell, C Withey

Why don't free agents want to play in Dallas? Cool city, Dirk's great, Coach Carlisle is outstanding, Cuban's a good owner, history of winning, good fans. Why are they still carrying JJ Barea and Devin Harris? Why is Jeff Withey the best big man they can get? And why did they have to play chicken with Nerlens to bring him back? Weird. Anyway, they've got a good coach, the PG is a rookie but I think he's gonna be really good (either Smith and Carlisle get along famously or they flat fucking hate each other, good fun either way), Nerlens and Powell should make a pretty good combo, and Dirk still has 1-2 good years left in him. I think this team could be kinda fun and if Smith is the deal then they could really take off; on the other hand, they could implode and be truly awful; along with the Pelicans I think they have the widest possible variance in the league. I like them to be slightly better than last year, 37 wins.

Grizzlies
PG Conley, SG Tyreke, SF Parsons, PF Gasol, C Wright
Bench: PG Chalmers/Harrison, SG Baldwin/Selden/Brooks/Zagorac, SF McLemore, PF Green/Ennis/Rabb, C Davis

I dunno, my gut feeling is the Conley-Gasol core is getting too old, Tyreke Evans and Chalmers only make them older, Parsons and Wright don't make them any more efficient and the raft of youngsters are kinda promising but not ready yet. It feels to me like a rebuild year, like its time to start salary dumping and accumulating draft picks. But if the vets stay healthy and the youngsters can get coached up, maybe this team coalesces into something. Hard to imagine the Grizzlies being bad but that seems more likely than them being good. I think they get 29 wins (and make at least one major trade this year).