Playoff Prediction: Spurs over Thunder in 7

The Spurs play the best kind of team basketball and when facing another team (say, Pacers or Clippers) I think the Spurs would beat any of them in 7 games, there's not a 'team' in the world that could best the Spurs right now.  But I think the Spurs are susceptible to star power, to one guy going above and beyond the Spurs' rational estimates, one guy so efficient that he carries his team to victory.  The Thunder have two guys like that, the Heat have one (yes, one, did I stutter?  2005 Dwyane Wade's not walking through those doors, folks), so I won't say it'll be a cakewalk for the Spurs.  The two squads in the world that could compete with the Spurs are both still out there. Durant and Westbrook are the holders of all future in this series.  The Spurs will be predictably brilliant, but if Durant and Westbrook both get hot, they can outrun the Spurs.

I started to take the Thunder in 7.  Tough to go against the Spurs--I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Spurs win in 4--but I think in the final moments of the final game the Thunder have the two guys I'd rather have at the close.  The Spurs are a machine, a unit that thrives on doing the little things, capitalizing on the most opportunities; but they're not 'clutch', they don't have a bunch of guys that can take over a game.  The Spurs grind, they do what they do and they do it again and again with better efficiency and consistency than anyone else.  They already treat every possession like a hunk o' gold, they can't want more than they already want (the Cordelia of the NBA), they don't have another gear to go to (I would say the same of Chris Paul), they're already at 11, there's no higher 11 out there for that push over da cliff.  When the chips are down, I'm taking Durant #1 and Westbrook #2.  That's why the Thunder would win in game 7.

Wait....Serge Ibaka's out.  That changes things.  Ibaka's absence means 2-3 extra offensive rebounds for the Spurs, one or two Spur shots that don't get blocked, one or two drives to the basket that don't get contested.  The Spurs will maximize those marginal opportunities.  Ibaka's 10-12 points on the other end are now in the hands of (rookie) Steven Adams or (*shudder*) Jeremy Lamb or (*SHUDDER*) Derek Fisher. That could be the difference between the Thunder raging back in the 4th quarter or being down by 20 or  it could draw the Thunder into a free throw shooting contest which would be disastrous to their offensive and defensive flow.

The Thunder can be there in game 7--they could even pull it out.  But without Ibaka I think the Spurs have too much for the Thunder to keep up with.  Spurs in 7.


5.28.14 -- 2-2 after 4 games.  The Spurs dominated the first two games in San Antonio (w/out Serge Ibaka), the Thunder dominated the next two games in OKC (w/ Serge Ibaka).  The outcomes are not surprising, save that the Spurs just handled in back-to-back games which hasn't happened in a while; they did drop games 2 & 3 against the Mavs but in those games I'd suggest that the Spurs played well, Mavs played better, but the Spurs never really looked in either of the last two games against OKC.  That said, not a real shock that its 2-2 after 4, so folks that are changing their picks based on early Spur momentum or recent Thunder momentum.

We all remember two years ago when the Spurs went up 2-0 then dropped 4 straight to OKC.  But that OKC team had James Harden (who was money in that series) whereas this current OKC squad has a rotation of Jeremy Lamb and Caron Butler.  The Spurs, on the other hand, are wiser not older with a better bench.  This is one of the Series where the home team dominates because the bench is more effective at home and the refs are a little more friendly to the home squad.  I wouldn't have thought that would've swung so many 20-point victories but oh well, these are two well-oiled offenses and when given those two hometown factors, I guess efficiency just busts out.

Resting Ibaka for the first two games looks now like a marvelous gambit: hey, the home team is probably gonna win anyway and since the Spurs are rolling, why don't we just give 'em those games and see if we can't play with their heads a little bit.  Ehh, I'm not sure the headgames really hold up against a disciplined veteran squad like the Spurs (but I'm in awe of trying to play Jedi mind tricks on Coach Pop...yeah, good luck wit dat) but giving Ibaks a week off in the middle of the playoffs looks like a pretty good idea.  Ibaka looks good out there, good footwork, good on-ball reaction, looks sparky around the rim.

Am I changing my pick?  Well, my pick was predicated on Ibaka not being there in game 7, but I'll stick with the Spurs in 7.  I'll stick with the home game dynamic.  Seems like its holding up well so far.