Playoff Prediction: Heat over Pacers in 6

5.19.14 -- The Pacers are exactly where they expected to be all year long.  They really stunk up the joint for the last coupla months of the regular season, played some uninspiring ball against the Hawks in the 1st round (good in game 6, really good in game 7, otherwise...meh), were good enough to beat the Wizards (only played really well in game 6).  Though they haven't dressed too impress in a while, how can we even be sure the Pacers have any clothes at all?

All right here's the scenario: the Pacers gut it out against the Heat, do what they have to do against the Spurs/Thunder, hoist the trophy and write books about how they had it together the whole time.  Could be.  Could be they've just been coasting to this point because they knew they could.  The Wizards played two truly horrible games (3 & 6) and failed to make the most of their chances down the stretch in two others (2 & 4).  Now the Pacers played well in game 6, played their game as well as they have since the All-Star break.  But otherwise I thought the other 5 games were about the Wizards.  When the Wizards figured it out and had their game on, they trounced the Pacers.  And when the Wizards couldn't get it together, the Pacers were able to pull it out.  The Pacers bested the Wizards on veteran smarts.  They bested the Hawks on pure talent because the Hawks (w/out Al Horford) just don't have enough to really challenge even in the East.   Will either of these elements impress the Heat?  No, I don't suppose it will.

The Heat are in a groove these days but they haven't had to play great.  The Bobcats were the perfect 1st round tune up (hard working, athletic but not a lot of talent) and the Nets had one game of hot shooting but not much else to challenge the defending champs.  So we haven't seen the Heat really play their game yet, aren't they coasting just like the Pacers?  I mean, the Pacers dropped a few along the way (haven't even played well at home) while the Heat are 8-1 but have the Heat really had to work any harder than the Pacers did to get here?  No.  And this Heat squad doesn't strike me as good as last year.

I think Bosh is the only Heat player that took a step forward this year, maybe Birdman Anderson.  Lebron is great but this was not one of his better career years.  Wade (*) is good for a handful of 20-footers and some bashing into somebody for free throws but he's also good for bad turnovers, cold streaks and tight hamstrings.  Chalmers hasn't gotten demonstrably better over the years, he's still a nice helper of a player but not one with any some veteran danger about him, you know?  (Chalmers is not the guy in the R-rate movie, he's the guy in the PG-rated movie, you feel me?)  Battier, Ray Ray, Rashard and Haslem are all just about done.  Is anyone expecting anything out of Oden (is he even on the roster now?) or Beasley?  I thought they played well with James Jones, but I'm not sure he matches well with the Pacers.

So its up to Lebron and Bosh to carry this team with a supporting cast that is the same as last year (but older).  It won't be easy for the Heat but I think the Heat supporting cast will enough highlights to under gird Lebron's efforts and Bosh's heroics.  That said, the Pacers are pretty much the same as last year too.  The Pacers had their chances last year, not sure they'll get as many chances this year.  I think Lebron and co. can get enough past the Pacer defense to keep the lead and the momentum.

The Pacers took game 1 and looked good.  I thought the Heat made some moves that played into the Pacers' hands (Spoelstra tried to play defense instead of offense, don't think that's how the Heat beat hte Pacers) but I expect the Heat to take that first shot like a boxer that likes to get hit a little bit.  If the Pacers play perfect every night, I think they are thick enough to beat the Heat; but I think they have to play perfect every night to win 4 out of 7.  I think the Heat win 4 of the next 5 games.

* Personally I think Dwyane Wade's game is a snooze, I think he's been wildly overrated most of his career, and just for good measure I don't like him, though I rarely have opinions on personalities of any kind.  And he beat Kentucky in the tournament, okay there's that too.  But his game is jump shots and free throws.  Yawn.  I'm not even into his highlights, they remind me of Jim Edmonds: hot-dogging lucky shit more than gifted athletic displays.  I'm not like this, normally I don't have any kind of feelings for celebrities.  They're just clusters of electrons on a screen to me, I like the sports, I like the art of it but I am not one to be overwhelmed by the artists themselves.  So I rarely love them, I rarely hate them.  But, yeah, Dwyane Wade, I don't like that guy, I don't like his game and I think at this point he's that most annoying combination of unreliable and bulletproof.


5.28.14 --  Well I picked the Heat to win 4 of the next 5 after game 1.  If I'd thought it through I would've picked them to win game 5 back in Indy.  This one's on target.  The Pacers are good but not great, the Heat are not quite great but clearly better than the Pacers.  They can't stop Lebron, they can't stop Wade, they're not even stopping Ray Allen; meanwhile, Rashard Lewis is stopping them...I mean come on now....

Can the Pacers come back and win 3 of the next 4 games?  No.  Flat out no.  Not gonna happen.  By far that would be the biggest NBA upset I've ever seen.  I'll take the Pacers to win game 5 back in Indy but I fully expect the Heat to contest that game and then crush them in game 6 back in Miami.