Playoff Prediction: Heat over Nets in 5

5.5.14 -- The Nets swept the Heat in the season series and while that is a generally predictive stat I'm not buying that the Heat are that much worse than the Nets so I'm inclined to throw out this fact as an outlier.  The Heat could easily win the next four games and the Nets could easily look horrible in all four.

The Heat smoked the Jefferson-less Bobcats in four games.  An easy call: the Heat are the defending champs, the Bobcats are the spunky upstarts.  Without Big Al the Bobcats just did not have enough scoring to even compete a little bit with the Heat, so the Heat took the opportunity to rest by dispatching the Bobcats quickly.  The Nets, on the other hand, went 7 games with the Raptors (both teams exactly the same amount of points over 7 games) and still had to pull it out on the last play of the last game (if Patterson gets that loose ball instead of Lowry, I think he gets a better chance to get past Pierce; obviously the play was drawn up for Lowry and he'd put all that work into getting to the basket you can't fault him for not dishing--and Patterson's look wouldn't have been ideal--but I think Patterson could've gotten around Pierce whereas Lowry was stuck going straight into him), in a series that was a text book example of veteran smarts sneaking past the young talented newcomers; I thought the Raptors had enough to get by the Nets and I was almost right.  It took every ounce of energy the Nets could muster to best the Toronto Raptors, does anyone think they can muster enough to beat the Heat?  "Mustering" is relative: each game is its own environment and how teams/players react is based on what they're encountering in each specific ecosystem.

When the Nets made their big move last year bringing in Pierce and KG, I thought it was a disaster for the team; I thought that Pierce and KG were both done or at least enough past their primes to make the deals nothing but ruinously expensive.  Pierce surprised me this season, being a lot more of an effective floor leader than I would thought him capable; and KG, well, he's good in the playoffs.  Are the Nets wildly better than last year?  No but they are better.  They're also older in the good ways and the bad ways.  And this is the match-up the Nets were built for.  The Heat, though, are the defending champs and even though they haven't looked as dominant this season, they haven't had to.

Pierce is the bedrock leader of the team and he's a good one to have going into a tough playoff series.  KG is done (has been done for a while) but in a game-to-game situation he can still be effective (came up big in game 7 against the Raptors).  Deron Williams has moments where he looks like the old Deron but just as often struggles with his shot and his defense.  Joe Johnson is a filler-upper that can occasionally look unstoppable but he's also slow and prone to cold streaks.  Alan Anderson is the wild card on this team: he's not as good but he's young and feeling himself and could create a big difference because his unpredictability.  Andray Blatche has his moments but against some rotation of Lewis, Oden, Anderson, Bosh he's gonna have to play a lot of defense and probably won' get much of the weak-side action he needs to make plays.  Livingston is the guy that could really shine out in this series; up against Chalmers and Beasley he'll get chances to make plays and be pesky on defense.  Kirilenko disappeared against the Raptors, is he rested and ready or out of the rotation?  Marcus Thornton had a big game 7 but I don't see that happening again.  I've never been impressed with Teletovic, never seen enough of him to really know his game.

Is all of the above enough to beat the Heat?  No.  To me the one to keep an eye on is Shaun Livingston, he will either make a big difference off the bench or...he won't.  If he gets eaten up by Beasley and Chalmers then he will have accomplished nothing; but if he comes in and moves the offense, then he could keep the Nets in games that they might be falling out of.

I'll take the Nets to take game one in Miami.  I'll take the Heat in the next four games.  Heat in 5. The Heat are faster, smarter, more efficient than the Nets.  When it comes time to win I think the Heat will step up and handle their business and the Nets won't be able to hang.