Playoff Prediction: Spurs over Blazers in 7

5.7.14 -- I never know what to say about the Spurs.  They're the Spurs.  They play their game and some night they just don't have it (notoriously awful on back-to-back nights) but when they bring their A game they win most of the time.  But in the last series against the Mavs, the Spurs pretty much did their thing in game 3 and game 6 and still lost.  Game 2 was one of those 'didn't have it' nights but the other two Mav victories struck me as amazing gut-check basketball from Dirk and co.  (Curious to see which free agents make their way to Dallas this summer)  Does this mean the Spurs can fall to Portland, a team more efficient in its offense and defense than Dallas?  No, I'm expecting the Spurs to beat (just about) anybody four out of seven games, so I'm expecting them to beat the Blazers.

I took the Blazers to get game 7 because Aldridge (underrated for years) and Lillard are better than ever this year and that'll make Ginobli and Parker change up at least a little.  The Blazers (not unlike the Spurs) are the Blazers, man.  They're good but not great every year.  They can score, they can defend, they can rebound, they can move the ball, they can pile up points quickly, they can sneak in at the end and snatch a victory or...sometimes they can't.  But the Blazers are a good team and they're playing well right now, I expect them to acquit themselves admirably against the Spurs.  The supporting cast knows its role, knows how to support and augment its stars.  And the Blazers feel like a team that likes each other, that matters in the playoffs (just ask the Pacers).

Yes, I already let game 1 sneak past me but I figured the Spurs would win at home.  I suspect the home team wins every game in this series.  I'll take the Spurs in 1,2,5,7 while the Blazers stand tall at home.  I was a little surprised at the ease with which the Spurs handled the Blazers but on second thought I can imagine each game being a decisive win for whoever wins.  Back in Portland, I expect Lillard to get hot, the supporting cast to make better contributions and the Spurs to mail it in (oh yeah, the Spurs can mail it in with the best of 'em); but in San Antonio I reckon the Spurs will play crisp basketball and exploit ever opportunity.  So while I expect this to be a long series it wouldn't surprise if not a single game was really competitive.  It may be boring basketball to some but I look forward to it just the same.  I think that's what I think for now.

5.11.14 -- Okay, I was right about the first two games: Spurs smothered the Blazers, neither game was a blowout but the Spurs comfortably controlled both contests.  My assumption was that going back to Portland would be a boon to the Blazer bench and the Spurs would play well, come up short, prepare for game 4.  Instead the exact opposite transpired: the Spurs bench was humming (Ginobli +22, Mills +15, Diaw +22) while the Blazer gave nothing, man, nothing.  If the Blazers can't win at home...well, then...I mean...they're not gonna win a game.  Even with a 2-0 lead I didn't think the Spurs would sweep but now, how can you bet against it?  Aldridge and Lillard weren't efficient but they weren't bad, but without some bench help, the Blazers cannot keep up with the wave after wave of Spurs machine-like offense.

Man, the Spurs are good.  They look like they could do anything anywhere against anybody right now.  They look like they could win an opera.  (Swan Lake?  Not any more, sucka.  Its Spur Lake now)  Send them to Congress, let them solve our problems.  This team is smart--you can talk about analytics or statistics all you want, the Spurs are LIVING it; they're not trying to conform to some statistical model of the world, they're trying to conform to the WORLD.  And they're doing just fine.

I don't see how the Clippers could hang with the Spurs; with the Thunder and Heat its just a matter of riding their stars as far as they take you.  Only unpredictable star power (Lebron, KD, Westbrook really the only three I would even consider) can catch the Spurs off guard.  It won't be a concerted team effort that beats the Spurs, their team is better than yours and you will lose that way; no, only herculean performances by the biggest stars could fell them.  I thought the Spurs looked this good last year but Tony Parker came up hurt in the Finals and Ginobli really wavered down the stretch; but everyone's looking healthy now and the bench is deeper, more effective than last year.  Hard to pick against them at all right now.

(I certainly hope Tim Duncan isn't thinking about retiring, he's still got 2 or 3 good years left.  Also, since I would take whatever the Spurs are rolling off the bench any given night over Jamal Crawford, does that mean Greg Popovich should've won 6th Man of the Year?)