2023-24 NBA Playoffs (1st round, 4 games in)

East

Heat 1-3 Celtics

After taking the night off in Game Two, the Celtics are back on track and making it clear that they are vastly more talented than the Heat. Porzingis left Game Four, will it become a problem? (Well, not for this series, but the Celtics need KP to reach their peak) Even without Porzingis, this should be over in five. 

Sixers 1-3 Knicks

The Sixers are such an inconsistent squad, it's hard to see how they have any kind of shot of winning 3 straight. Buddy Hield is completely out of the rotation, (oh--I forgot Robert Covington was even on the Sixers!), Tobias Harris is just inert, Joel Embiid is occasionally feisty and brilliant but more often just hobbled and ineffective, Kyle Lowry is doing yeoman's work (but not much more than that) and this team is pretty much just Tyrese Maxey by himself. The Knicks are rounding into shape (and definitely keeping an eye on that Porzinigis injury), I think this will be over in Game Five. 

Pacers 3-1 Bucks

If you needed any reminder of how awesome Giannis is just remember that if he were in the lineup, the Bucks would be a for-real contender in the East but without him, the Bucks kinda stink. There is no depth, no defense, no reliable scoring outside of Middleton--good god, they've even had to break the emergency glass on Danilo Galinari, a move that does not inspire confidence. Unless Damian Lillard returns, the Bucks have zero shot at winning this series (and even if he does return, they have almost zero shot in this series). The Pacers aren't really doing anything amazing, the Bucks are just that bad. I give the Bucks a puncher's chance in Game Five, but this should be wrapped in six. 

Magic 2-2 Cavs

This one is going seven games and I like the home team to win all 7. In the playoffs, the supporting cast shines in home games (and disappears on the road) and both of these teams need the full weight of their depth to get ahead, so I'm favoring the home teams and sticking with the Cavs in 7.

West

Pelicans 0-4 Thunder

The Pelicans shot their wad in Game One, the Thunder survived and then mushed the Pels like a bug for the next three games. If the Pelicans had Zion, this would've been a bit more of a challenge but without him, the Thunder rather easily outscored them. Now the Thunder get a break while the Mavs and Clippers wear each other out (I think Thunder fans can go ahead and buy their Conference Final tickets).

Lakers 1-4 Nuggets

Yeah, I'm not shocked the Lakers were able to hold on to Game Four, the Nuggets had a pretty terrible shooting night--and still almost came back to win it. And, yeah, I'm not shocked that in two of the four wins the Nuggets needed the final possession  to seal the victory. The Lakers played the Nuggets close last year and played them close again this year. But the Nuggets are too good, man, and though the length of the Lakers was problematic for them, their scoring and overall offensive efficiency is just too much for the Lakers to hang with. That said, the Wolves are going to be a problem for the Nuggets....

Suns 0-4 Wolves

The Suns swept the Wolves in the regular season, including two wins in the last coupla weeks and this felt like it was going to be a dog fight of a series. But....nah, not so much. The Suns are basically just Booker and Durant (just like last year) and without Grayson Allen (yeah, the Suns were toast without Grayson Allen?!??), there just wasn't enough scoring to hang with the Wolves. The Wolves are frankly a fucked-up Frankenstein monster squad, but when they pull it together, they are the only team that can truly hang with the Nuggets and Celtics. They've got long arms, a deep bench, and though the scoring sometimes disappears for no reason, they generally have a good offense, too. They were gonna have to beat the Nuggets at some point, now is the time. 

Mavs 2-2 Clippers

Neither of these teams are good enough to win, they only win when the other team just doesn't show up. The Mavs were utterly useless in Game One, the Clippers utterly useless in Game Three. The Clippers should've won Game Two but fumbled it away, the Clippers had a massive lead early in Game Four and almost gave that away. It's like both of these teams are just waiting to lose and hoping the other team loses first. I still have this going 7 games but increasingly I think the winner will likely get smoked by OKC--a team that knows who they are and will have an extra 5 days or so to prepare for the next round.