East
1: Heat 94-114 Celtics
2: Heat 111-101 Celtics
Game One....(yawn)....was over before I turned it on, the score only looks close because the Celtics completely stopped playing with, like, 10 mins left. Game Two was maybe the most shocking result of the season. But let's dig into the numbers: the Heat had their best shooting game of the entire season while for the Celtics, Porzingis totally sucked and Payton Pritchard in 20 minutes managed to do...absolutely nothing. And while actually Tatum and Brown were both pretty good in Game Two, the rest of the squad just couldn't get buckets and that's not like this year's Celtics. So was Game Two a fluke or are the Celtics ready to fold? Yeah....I'm going with "fluke". Tyler Herro hadn't had a good shooting night in (seems like) months and as much as I love Bam Adebayo, I think his dominance of Porzingis was likely just a good night that won't be repeated. I had Celtics in 5, which I figured was too much after Game One, but after Game Two I'd say the Celtics are back on the gentleman's sweep path because I fully expect them to outplay the Heat in the next three games.
1: Sixers 104-111 Knicks
2: Sixers 101-104 Knicks
Game One was a hard fought contest but the Knicks were the better team. Game Two was hard fought, too, and though history may well record that the Knicks got lucky down the stretch, I'd say it isn't that simple. Frankly the Knicks should've won and had the game in hand in the 4th quarter, until the Sixers rode a nice stretch to a lead in the final minute, which the Knicks overcame by making the hustle plays (hat tip to Josh Hart) and making the big shots (hat tip to Donte DiVincenzo). So even though MVP candidate Jalen Brunson looks completely fustigated by Tyrese Maxey, the Sixers just don't have enough to compete. The overly maligned Tobias Harris has been awful, the once-promising Buddy Hield just doesn't look like he wants to play, Nicolaus Batum already had an out-of-body game in the play-in (are you really expecting him to have another one of those this year?) and Joel Embiid is fighting too many injuries to be reliable (though he's clearly working his ass off). Maxey has been great for the Sixers but he's pretty much the only one and I don't see how he can do it all himself. This series will still produce tough contests but I like the Knicks to take one of the next two games and have a good shot at wrapping this up in 5 games.
1: Pacers 94-109 Bucks
2: Pacers 125-108 Bucks
Okay, it is officially panic time in Milwaukee. The Bucks have been lackluster all year (hmmmm, well, really only since they mutinied against Coach Griffin to bring in Coach Doc) and with Giannis nursing a calf injury (I thought that was strictly a FIFA injury), the Bucks had better get their shit together pronto if they expect to get past Indy. That said, the Bucks looked pretty dominant in Game One and then utterly incapable in Game Two, so which is it? For the Pacers, really only Pascal Siakim is balling (he's killing the Bucks), but so far they're seemingly steady enough to outlast the schizo Bucks. If the Bucks can last til Game Seven, then hopefully Giannis can come back and make a difference--that's their only hope. I think the listing Bucks can stay even with the Pacers for a while, though they better get their offense in tune if they're going to outscore Siakim, so I will stick with the Bucks in 7 for now (but, man.....they gotta stretch this series to even have a prayer).
1: Magic 83-97 Cavs
2: Magic 86-96 Cavs
Felt like two fairly evenly matched teams going into the series but the Cavs are clearly just a more reliable offense. The Magic are nice but just don't have the firepower to keep up. Again, I expect the Cavs to take one of the next two games and wrap this up in 5.
West
1: Pelicans 92-94 Thunder
2: Pelicans 92-124 Thunder
The Pelicans kinda scared the Thunder in Game One but the Thunder made the plays late to steal the W. In Game Two, the Thunder moved the ball well, got buckets and rather easily outpaced the Pelicans. I think the Pelicans still present some matchup problems (Jonas "FIBA" Valenciunas!) and should steal a game or two, but they don't have the scoring depth (w/out Zion) to hang for long. The Thunder are the better team and should finish this in 5 (or maybe 6) games.
1: Lakers 103-114 Nuggets
2: Lakers 99-101 Nuggets
Oh, man, if the Lakers couldn't pull out Game Two, then I just don't see how they win at all. The Lakers were pretty great for about three quarters, but the Nuggets took over in the 4th and Jamal Murray finished the easy-as-you-please buzzer beater to snatch the commanding lead. So far, Anthony Davis has played pretty great, Lebron started great in the first game and finished great in the second, and the rest of the supporting cast has been pretty good (Hachimura not so much, D'Angelo Russell kinda sucked in Game One but was kinda great in Game Two), but it just doesn't matter. Jokic is so damn good and the rest of the cast knows exactly what they're supposed to do and clearly the defending champs are gonna be a tough out. Feels like another sweep is coming, though I can see the Lakers stealing a home game, I guess (but I'd be kinda shocked if this goes more than five games).
1: Suns 95-120 Wolves
2: Suns 93-105 Wolves
The Sun have no chance. Their only hope was to simply outscore the neophyte Wolves but it ain't happening. The Wolves defense is too much and the offense is good enough to get past the Suns (even if Anthony Edwards struggles as he has so far). If the Suns offense was as good as they think it is, they'd be tough to beat but it isn't and the D isn't noteworthy at all. This looked to me like the classic home-team-wins-all-games kinda series--and it still could be--but I don't see it any more. The Suns swept the Wolves in the regular season but that feels like a rope-a-dope now, the Suns are struggling to even be in these games now. The Wolves will take one of these next two games in Phoenix and finish it in 5.
1: Mavs 97-109 Clippers
2: Mavs 96-93 Clippers
The Mavs simply did not show up in Game One but turned it around nicely in Game Two (especially in the 2nd half). I can't help thinking that the Clippers really are the better team but they're sloppy and Kawhi isn't quite ready to get wins. This should go 7 games, which gives Kawhi more time to play himself into shape. Peak Clippers is better than peak Mavs but the Mavs feel more likely to get closer to their peak than the Clippers; but if the Clippers can keep the series alive, then I think they have the better chance of finding the magic at the bottom of their bag. I initially had the Mavs in 7 but I think I like the Clippers to catch up and over take the Mavs by Game Seven (but if the Clippers don't win at least one of the next two games, this might be done a lot quicker).
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