Again: Virginia's stifling defense turns games into soccer matches where the paucity of scoring can keep the outcome in doubt even when it feels like the Cavs are dominating. I liked Oregon, they played with spunk and knocked down shots but Virginia had the better talent and the game plan to weather the storm.
Purdue 99-94 (OT) Tennessee
Tennessee had a really strange run in this tourney: dominating half of each of their games and getting blown out in the other halves. So even though Purdue built a dominant lead in the 2nd half, the Vols were able to rally and send it into OT. But they ran out of gas and Purdue squelched them out fairly easily in the extra frame. Good performance from the Boilermakers, I think they'll give Virginia a good run.
Florida State 58-72 Gonzaga
Gonzaga generally led all the way through but State kept hanging around making this a compelling match. Felt like Gonzaga had the talent and the teamwork to win but the Seminoles hung tight (until about the last TV timeout), so despite the lopsided final score, this was still a tight game with about 5 minutes left. Gonzaga persevered and got it done like a top squad should.
Texas Tech 63-44 Michigan
Well, the Wolverines picked an unfortunate time to have their worst game of the year. They shot so poorly early on that it just killed their offense for the whole night allowing Tech's zone defense to stifle any chance to get a drive-kick offense going, so the hole for the Wolverines just kept getting deeper. Tech was fine but this was about Michigan's inability to score (1-19 from 3 and that single make was the final basket of the game), so it's kinda hard to tell how well Tech will stack up against Gonzaga.
LSU 63-80 Michigan State
In the 1st half State shot the ball really well, never turned it over and got every rebound--the fact that LSU was only down 12 seemed miraculous to me! State held a healthy lead throughout but LSU did hang around and kinda kept it closer than it should've been (yes, 17 was closer than it should've been!). LSU had a good season and a good run through the tourney but they overachieved and a thumping loss to end it all was preordained. State looks solid.
Virginia Tech 73-75 Duke
All I saw was the last few minutes but Tech had their chances to take it and just couldn't convert in the final minute. Duke has the best 2 players in the tournament but that's all they've got, so they're still very much in the hunt to win it all but we'll see if that lack of depth catches up to them.
Auburn 97-80 North Carolina
Yup: Auburn got hot and won big despite losing their leading scorer (Okeke) to a gruesome injury late in the game (weird looking injury: not sure what happened to him but he was clearly in some pain). North Carolina had been playing really well and if they'd stymied Auburn's outside shooting they would've won but once the tide turned on them they were powerless.
Houston 58-62 Kentucky
I really thought Kentucky was the better team but they had a stretch of bad possessions in the 2nd half that made it necessary for PJ Washington (*) to rip the cast off his leg and make plays to seal the W. Houston had an indomitable performance from Corey Davis (man, they kid attacked, attacked, attacked!) but foul trouble and spotty shooting kept them from taking full advantage of Kentucky's anemic offense in the 2nd half.
Elite Eight
Purdue-Virginia (-4.5)
Virginia plays a rigidly disciplined game plan built around stifling defense designed to suck the will out of their opponents; if they had an efficient offense to go with this, they'd be lights out every year, but they don't. And because they sometimes struggle to score, it gives hope to opponents that ought to be frustrated beyond belief. I think Purdue is not dissimilar but they've got an inside-out offense that can generate points from the perimeter--which could be the death blow to Virginia. Both teams rebound well so this game will be about FG% especially from beyond the arc. I think Purdue has a better chance to get hot from outside which should make all the difference. I'll take Purdue in a low scoring contest to win and cover.
Texas Tech-Gonzaga (-4)
I don't know either of these teams that well but my gut says that Gonzaga is the better team with a better sense of self and they've played better teams to get here. Tech has done what they've needed to do but Ohio State and Michigan don't have the talent up top, depth on the back end or game plan that Gonzaga has. I think Gonzaga takes this one fairly easily.
Auburn-Kentucky (-3)
Kentucky has already beaten Auburn twice this season (actually that was Auburn's last L) but the two games were so different that they're not terribly predictive here (except that in both of those games neither side was at full strength which does mirror this contest, as well). The bottom line is if Auburn is coming in without Okeke and Kentucky is coming in with Washington, then it will require an all time 3-point game to pull this out for Auburn to pull this out. Auburn is capable of doing that but I feel like Kentucky is ready for a big Keldon Johnson game and this could be it. I'll take Kentucky to win and cover.
Michigan State-Duke (-1.5)
College basketball, man: Duke has struggled late in two straight games against weaker opponents, so against a top flight squad that's playing well now, they'll finally meet their match, right? Ehh, maybe. Just as likely State gets off to a bad start, Duke's bench comes in and drains 3's and the game's a Blue Devil blowout by halftime. State has had a workmanlike season, started kinda slow, had a bad stretch in the middle of the conference schedule but has built nicely toward the end and is playing really good right now. Duke has been really good all season but somehow not as dominant as it feels like they could've been and has struggled mightily in their last two tournament games. I think State is the deeper team, the more defined team and the team playing better right now. I wouldn't be surprised to see Zion and Barrett blow up but I think State can endure their onslaught and control the ball better. I'll take Michigan State to win and cover.
(*) All season long in mock drafts I've seen Washington pegged as a mid-2nd rounder and I don't get it at all! Good size, good ball handler, scores from all over, smart player, carried a top ten team for long stretches of the season, then plays through pain to make the difference in a tournament game--what more are scouts looking for? I like Keldon Johnson as much as the next guy (he kinda disappeared in this game) but if he's a top ten pick then Washington is a top five pick!
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