2018-19 NCAA Final Four

Texas Tech 75-69 Gonzaga

Tech plays some good D, they're sneaky good with the ball and when they're hitting 3's, they're pretty goddamn good. That said, I still thought this was Gonzaga's L more than Tech's W. Gonzaga's offense just spun in circles throughout the 2nd half after a pretty good opening. I think it was less about Tech's defense, which was fine, and more about Tech's offense being able to keep pace in a way that caught the Zags off guard. Gonzaga should've won this game, they were the better team but their offense fell off and ground to a halt right as Tech made its move. Tech moves on, but again: they caught Michigan unable to knock down shots and then Gonzaga unable to put together a consistent game, so is Tech really this good or are they just catching bad nights from superior teams? Tech certainly doesn't suck, they deserve to be here, but its still hard to tell how good they really are and if they're really capable of giving Michigan State a game. We'll see.

Purdue 75-80 (OT) Virginia

Good game! Purdue's Carsen Edwards was money all night and he alone kept Purdue's offense afloat in this game, where Virginia shot well but didn't exactly play their best defense. Back and forth action, both teams raining 3's, felt like Purdue was gonna close it out, but UVA tied it up late on a full court pass and amazing finish (wow! That pass and finish should become one of the iconic images of the tourney for years to come, especially if UVA wins it all). In OT, Purdue kinda ran out of gas and Virginia pounced on their chance. Good W for Virginia, gotta feel bad for Purdue who had this one in their grasp.

Auburn 77-71 (OT) Kentucky

As a Cats fan this one was frustrating. If UK makes their free throws, they win this game easily. Auburn was already deep in foul trouble before halftime, felt like the opportunity was there for UK to exploit that with their size down low, methodically send all of Auburn's players to the bench, make free throws and salt this game away. But instead Auburn was able to get easy shots in the lane over and over again (how? UK's size advantage was massive) and Kentucky just couldn't figure out how to counter. Auburn's MO all year long has been their 3-point shooting but that's not what won this game for them, here they were more effective at knocking down 15 footers and getting to the foul line. And even as poorly as Kentucky played, they were able to get the game into OT, where they had chances to control the action. Yeah, I know this sounds bitchy but Kentucky really should've won this game and while Auburn played really well, even that was predicated on Kentucky failing to take advantage of their size. (Still don't understand the mock drafts: how are you watching this UK team and thinking that Keldon Johnson has more upside than PJ Washington? Based on what?)

Michigan State 68-67 Duke

Fun game! Duke had been playing with fire all through this tournament to the point where you wondered whether they would eventually get burned or that they were so destined to win it all that it didn't even matter if they played shaky. It was the former. Duke had been leaving the door open and Michigan State was the one that stole it late: nailed the big shots when they had to and kept Zion away from the ball for the last few minutes and that was it. This Duke team was wildly unbalanced, that #1 recruiting class was all by themselves out there and the tourney struggles finally caught up to them. This Michigan State team is not flashy or wildly talented but they're deep and well-disciplined and PG Cassius Winston controls the ball as well as anyone I've seen in this tourney. I think they're the team to beat from here.


Final four:
Auburn - Virginia (-5.5)

Same as ever for Auburn: if they're hitting 3's, they can beat anyone; but if they're not, they can lose to anyone. That said, that game plan really only played out against North Carolina: Kansas was not at full strength and frankly Auburn handled them pretty easily and Kentucky was a familiar opponent (those division/conference teams make for anything-can-happens kinda contests) who bungled their chances to put Auburn away. But against UNC, Auburn scored, scored, scored and buried the Tar Heels in a way that could happen again to UVA. And UVA's defense does kinda allow that to happen: they dominate the top of the lane but can be beat over the top from the wings. I think Virginia has enough offense to counter Auburn's scoring and keep from getting buried. I like Virginia to play solid defense, knock down enough perimeter shots to match Auburn's attack and to hit their free throws down the stretch and pull away late. I like Virginia to win and cover.

Texas Tech - Michigan State (-3)
These are two workmanlike teams that have done what they needed to do to get this far. Tech will lock down the lane on defense, but I like State's chances to drive and kick (which Michigan couldn't do at all against this Tech squad) and to maintain their consistency in the 2nd half (which Gonzaga couldn't do either). Tech will stay close, they're savvy, they play together and I think they'll knock down enough shots to keep this one close throughout and I think they'll even have a chance to win it late. But I like Winston to keep his cool and make plays throughout that give State the upper hand. I think this one goes right down to the final play. I'll take State to win, but I like Tech to keep it close.