2018-19 NCAA Sweet Sixteen

Coming into this tournament it seemed plain that there were 8 teams better than everyone else: I'd rank them Duke, Gonzaga, Virginia, Michigan State, North Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, Michigan. All are still alive, with Duke getting a serious scare from Central Florida (who played the game of their lives) and Kentucky getting a minor scare from Wofford (tricky little team actually). Throw in that the second tier (Texas Tech, Purdue, Florida State, Houston, LSU, Virginia Tech) was solid as well, then the fact that this particular Sweet Sixteen is the highest ranked of all time should not come as a shock to anyone and unless you were betting on serious upsets, no one's bracket is all that busted just yet. Throw in that the two interlopers (Oregon, Auburn) were both ranked in the pre-season top 25 and both just won their conference tourneys, well, this is as chalky as the Flint, Michigan water supply. Now we're ready for some upsets and some god damn good ball games!

EAST
Duke (-8) v Virginia Tech
Tech beat Duke earlier this year in their only meeting so though Duke is loaded with a crop of dudes already vying for next year's NBA Rookie of the Year Award, I expect Tech to come in heads up and balls out. We've seen Duke's fatal flaw already: Zion and Barrett are two of the best players in all of college basketball but the rest of that roster is not so impressive. If Tech can force Duke into plumbing their minimal depth, then an upset would be in the offing. Though Duke really is thin on the backside, I expect Zion and Barrett to have big games (and get all the calls) and cruise into the next round. I'll take Duke to win but Tech to cover.

LSU v Michigan State (-6.5)
LSU is a scrappy team that figures out how to win games late; being the favorite in the SEC tournament doomed them, however, because they're not a strong frontrunner type, rather they are a dangerous underdog type. Now they're back in the underdog role and I expect them to give Michigan State a helluva challenge. State is solid all over, not great at anything but not bad at anything either. If they play their best they should be better than LSU (who are playing with an interim coach and having recently suffered the death of one of their rotation players). This game will be fun for the first 35 minutes, whoever takes over late will steal it. I'll go with Michigan State to win but LSU to cover (oh, don't be surprised if this one goes to OT).


WEST
Gonzaga (-6.5) v Florida State
This is a rematch of last year's Sweet Sixteen match where Florida State blitzed Gonzaga to advance (only to lose to Michigan, who may await again). Gonzaga has won so far by playing their game: inside-out with bigs that can handle the ball and guards that never turn the ball over. State has won by scoring with great efficiency down low (and weathering the breakout of Ja Morant). This game will be a battle down low and I think foul trouble might make the difference, whoever is getting the calls will probably win the game. I dunno....I'll take Gonzaga, I just think there's more star power there and they'll get the breaks. Gonzaga to win and cover.

Michigan (-2) v Texas Tech
Michigan is really good on the perimeter, Tech is better down low. I think Michigan will need to hit 3's to win. Tech will need to slow the pace and score efficiently. Tough call, I'll go with Michigan to win and cover.


SOUTH
Virginia (-8) v Oregon
Oregon is on a ten game winning streak but the Pac-12 was not too inspiring this year and beating Wisconsin and UC-Irvine to get here is not blowing me away either. Virginia's grinding defense is dangerous in that they sometimes forget to score and can be bested by a relatively mediocre offensive output from their opponent. That said, I think UVA will be successful at controlling the tempo and scoring enough to comfortably win. I'll take Virginia to win and cover (in what will likely be the softest game of the Sweet Sixteen).

Purdue v Tennessee (-1)
This is tough to call because both of these squads are so unpredictable: capable of playing letter perfect games and capable of disappearing in the moment. Purdue won a share of the Big Ten regular season title but their out of conference schedule is kinda disappointing; I'm actually more impressed by Tennessee's 2nd place finish in the SEC because the SEC was unusually good this year and a win over Gonzaga, two wins over Kentucky and a hard fought L to Kansas suggest they've worked harder to get here than Purdue. In the tournament, Purdue made short work of Old Dominion and Villanova while Tennessee struggled with Colgate and Iowa. My gut is that Tennessee is the better team but I feel like Purdue is playing better right now. I'll take Purdue to win and cover. 


MIDWEST
North Carolina (-5.5) v Auburn
UNC was kinda up-and-down for most of the year but they're in a real groove right now. Coby White has emerged as for-real baller and he's leading a balanced team with good depth. Auburn is a 3-point shooting team that can beat anyone if they're hitting and lose to anyone if they're not. This game has the potential to turn into a blowout--for either team!--I'll think we'll know by halftime how this game will turn out. While it is certainly possible for Auburn to shock the Heels, I gotta go with North Carolina to win and cover. 

Houston v Kentucky (-2.5)
Houston put up gaudy numbers in their conference but outside of nice W's over Oregon and LSU, they have not played anyone as good as Kentucky this year. If Kentucky had PJ Washington (which I'm assuming they won't), then I would take Kentucky to easily win because I just think they'd enough scoring inside and out to outrun Houston. But since UK will likely be without their best scorer, this game becomes a real toss-up. I'll go with Kentucky (but only because I bleed blue) to win, Houston to cover.


So my potential Elite Eight:
Duke v Michigan State
I think Duke has the better talent but State is the better team. I'd take Michigan State.

Gonzaga v Michigan
This is the game we did NOT get last year. I think Gonzaga is the deeper team and the team ready to move on, I'd take Gonzaga.

Virginia v Purdue
Virginia is rolling right now, I just don't think Purdue could hang with them. I'd take Virginia.

North Carolina v Kentucky
UK beat them earlier this year but UNC is a much better team now and if UK doesn't have PJ Washington, I just don't see how they could hang. I'd take North Carolina.


Of these Sweet Sixteen games, only Virginia over Oregon seems like a lock to me. UNC-Auburn could end up being a runaway (depending on Auburn's 3pt%) but all the other games should be fascinating and down to the wire. The first weekend was kinda anti-climactic but that just makes this weekend all the more captivating.