Spurs-Thunder Game Six

Oh, man, today is one of those very rare days when I wish I had cable. There are so few things that the television offers than I need to have right then and there. Either I find a friend (too many poor life choices for that to happen), go to a sports bar (among the worst experiences American culture has to offer) or sit around and wait for the replay (which gets harder and harder as the playoffs wear on).

Game One was a walkover, Thunder never showed up and the game was over pronto. Game Two ended with one of the crazier plays I've ever seen. Games Three, Four and Five were back and forth affairs where no one got the upper hand til the final moments (Thunder flailed down the stretch in three, the Spurs flailed down the stretch in Four and Five). If the Spurs don't show out tonight, this could be the end of an era, if the Thunder don't this could be the end of their era, too. Tonight's game could be extremely pivotal for the future of the Western Conference.

People are lamenting the decline of Tim Duncan, even suggesting this could be the end of his career. After 18 years of being the Man, this year Duncan moved to the supporting cast and his performance in this series has been....well, let's say invisible. Look, man, he's developed a lot of habits over the years and to be moved to another position isn't easy. This is akin to a shortstop moving over to 2nd base: he can still play but he's got to think backwards at all times, not exactly the best position for his success. As for his retirement, for years now I've thought that at the end of each season Tim looks around and thinks, 'Can I win a championship with this bunch of guys?' As long as the answer is 'yes', he'll keep coming back. But this season the calculus could be different: 'Can these guys win a championship with me?' If the answer is 'no', then Duncan will ride off into the sunset; but I don't think he'll reach that conclusion. Indeed, the worse he plays I suspect the more inspired he is to return. Granted, next year he'll be performing a role similar to what KG is doing in Minnesota these days, but at least he'll have a real understanding of what that role is. I think if he comes back next year he will be more relaxed and he'll know what he has to do to contribute whereas now he's still figuring that out (also he'll know its his last year). I don't think its fair to say he's under performing, I think its more accurate to say we no longer know what his performance is supposed to be. Right now he reminds me of John Wayne in She Wore a Yellow Ribbon: not ready to go, not ready to stay either, caught in the lurch of transition.

Tony Parker, too, is going through some changes. For years he's been running the offense, flinging the ball around and looking to get his mid-range jumper. Now he has to readjust to Aldridge's ball stopping game and Kawhi's need to go me-first at times (I don't mean to sound pejorative, they're both great players and this is how they play). In Game Three Parker was successful at taking what the defense gave him and knocked down open looks, a strategy which disappeared down the stretch in Game Five. He used to lead but now he has to wait for Kawhi to establish himself and for Aldridge to find his proper spot. Parker can still be a top quality PG but it won't be the PG he's been for all these years. And when he struggles, we think he's done but I don't think that's quite accurate.

Manu Ginobli looks closer to done to me than the others. If he comes back for one more year, he couldn't play more than 10-15MPG at best and even then he'd have to be more of a shooter and less of a distributor. He'll be in assistant coach mode rather than get-it-done mode. That's just what is available to him now and if he wants to be an asst in this game, he'll be back.

Which brings me to the Spur that I think has been the real disappointment of this series: Boris Diaw. He's a cerebral player, crafty on offense, sticky on defense and just generally in the right place at the right time. Regardless of what's going on, his game should be pretty consistent; instead, he looks confused out there. Bringing in Aldridge has thrown the machine out of whack: the center of the offense has shifted and the supporting cast has an array of new expectations. They're all smart, capable players and they'll figure it out...over time. But the time is up, they don't get to lose any more games in their experimentation. The last 4 games have been close til the end, the crafty veterans can still get it done. Holding back Durant and Westbrook is like catching a falling knife and the machine can't wobble any more; Diaw is the one that needs to keep everyone in tune.

It seems like I'm condemning Lamarcus Aldridge. Not at all! Dude's a badass! That said, his presence alters the gameplan; over the course of the 82 game season, more often than not the team was able to find a way but in the playoffs, everything tightens up and we're seeing that the Spurs machine isn't firing at its best right now. In the first two games, Aldridge pretty much had his way (with no help at all from the refs). Since then he's been off his game and I have a strange word of coaching advice: do NOT work for your shot. Do NOT work! Dude, you're seven feet tall, you can knock down 15 footers all day and no one can guard you. Just do that! Quit trying to move, don't overthink it, don't show off and tune out your teammates. Get to your spot, demand the ball and shoot your patented uncontestable jumpers. (If that don't work....I can't help ya)

Kawhi Leonard is such a monster out there. But marking Durant night after night is taking its toll: Leonard's 3FG% is under 30%, he's not getting to the FT line as often as his counterpart and his asst:to (17:11) is fine but not exactly MVP-ish. His D is still top quality but offensively the Spurs all need to be more precise. The Spurs are getting killed on the boards: Kanter-Westbrook-Adams have 46 offensive rebounds while the Spurs have 37 meaning Kawhi needs to make the shots he takes.

David West....I love the dude and he is younger and cheaper than Duncan,..but...he's the one that's got to go. He's the one that keeps Duncan from falling into the proper support role for Aldridge and gets between how Diaw and Ginobli support Parker and Kawhi. Before Aldridge got there, West's contribution would be perfect, just the thing the pre-Aldridge Spurs needed. But now, he clogs the middle without getting enough rebounds and pushes everyone else into the roles they haven't yet conformed to. With the Pacers I thought he was the true MVP of the team and I think he's totally capable of being that lock down (on and off the court) presence every team needs....but the Spurs don't need it. West and Duncan have to figure out how to co-exist.

Danny Green either shoots the lights out and he fades badly. Also, I feel that more than anyone his hard work is not getting rewarded: notice how many times he almost gets the steal, almost gets the rebound, almost makes the defensive stop. He's not playing badly, he's just not getting lucky out there. Patty Mills, too, is playing hard but not quite making the difference he wishes he could.

As for the Thunder, well, everybody is playing their own game. Adams is Adams, Durant is looking very Durant, Kanter is playing the way Kanter plays (incredibly efficient shooter, underrated rebounder and better D than usual), Roberson is pitching in and not trying to do too much; even Waiters is playing really solid D and not shooting his team out of games. Ibaka has been a nice contributor (overly maligned these days, I think) and while he's not the monster presence that he has been in the past, he's still knocking down shots and playing good D. (They still haven't figured out what to do with Cameron Payne, which feels like an opportunity missed, but he's a rookie on a team of badasses, perhaps its just as well he gets a good view of the action)

As for Westbrook, man, the good Westbrook is great and the bad Westbrook is awful. The easy commentary is that he needs to shoot less or stop being so aggressive but I would suggest...uh, no. He's not a bad passer....but he makes bad passes. The idea that he's gonna pass better than he shoots....uhhhh....not sure that's true. The best Coach Donovan can hope for is to soften some of those hard edges (take it easy on the 3's, Russ, okay?) but, dude, you've just gotta let Russ be Russ and live with the results.    

It felt like in Game Five, the refs came back to calling it tighter which should've helped the Spurs...but it didn't. Adjusting to the refs is something you would expect the veteran outfit with the hall of fame coach to do better...but the Spurs are the transition team while OKC is the squad with the clear co-leaders and all the momentum. OKC is the team that knows who it is and just has to go out and play while the Spurs are the team are figuring it out as they go.

Just because I love basketball, I'll take the Spurs to win tonight. But OKC is quite capable of vanquishing the Spurs (and giving the Warriors a severe kick to the shins). Could go either way. And I'll just have to avoid the internet til its over. :(