Orlando Magic Observations

Coach Scott Skiles announced his resignation from the Magic this morning. I didn't anticipate this move, I'm calling it a shocker. Skiles is a well known prickly pear so unless he's got a gig lined up, I wouldn't be surprised if we never see him again (not big on cultivating warm relationships, they say). And where will the Magic go for their new head coach? Mark Jackson, Mike D'antoni, Frank Vogel, David Blatt, Jeff Hornacek appear to be the top coaching candidates out there but the Magic find themselves in competition with the Pacers, Knicks, Rockets and Grizzlies; Jeff Van Gundy, Lionel Hollins, JB Bickerstaff, Sam Mitchell, Randy Wittman, Mike Dunleavy and Vinny Del Negro are further down the wish list. Gotta wonder if the Magic think they can lure Jay Wright away from Villanova (I doubt it, but the Magic might give it a shot). I dunno, none of those guys look like a fit to me, right now I guess the Magic will promote from within.

(I had planned on doing a team by team analysis heading into the draft and free agency period, so I guess I'll start with the Magic)

The Magic are one of those up-and-coming young teams built around draft picks that struggle to win games in the fourth quarter but, by golly, they play hard and the fans are full of hope for the future. Or that's the narrative anyway. Frankly I'm not convinced. The moves they've made over the last few years have gone under the radar considering the heat and light that Sam Hinkie's Sixers and the similar youth movement in Minnesota have absorbed; but the Wolves have their compass firmly in hand and the Sixers are ready to embrace their future. The Magic, meanwhile, have yet to push forward in a meaningful way.

They sold low on Mo Harkless (just gave him away), Kyle O'Quinn (paid to have him leave town, then paid even more to weakly replace him), Tobias Harris (dumped him just weeks after going all in on him) and Channing Frye (moving him was fine, but did they have to give him away to the top team in their conference?). And what was the deal with claiming Chris Copeland off waivers and then cutting him the next day? (I'm not a cap expert, perhaps it was necessary in some roster sense but not any sense that I know of) Uh...seems like Sam Hinkie could've done all this, no? And now parting ways with Coach Skiles after one mediocre year is something that should be kinda distressing (and it feels like ugly details are on the way).

As of now, next year's starting five looks like: C Nikola Vucevic, PF Aaron Gordon, SF Mario Hezonja, SG Victor Oladipo, PG Elfrid Payton with F Ersan Ilyasova off the bench. (Is that better than the Sixers? Probably but not definitely) The currently signed bench players are all guards: CJ Watson, Shabazz Napier, Devyn Marble.

They've drafted well lately (Aaron Gordon could be the next big thing) and they are currently sitting on #11,#41,#47 in the coming draft. Otherwise, it doesn't feel like they've done much else to build up their infrastructure, on the court or off. That starting lineup is not gonna win games next year and the bench is just non-existent.

The players they'll be giving up to free agency are: PG Brandon Jennings (absolutely will not be coming back), PF Andrew Nicholson (probably not a high priority for the Magic), SG Evan Fournier (could be back but I'm not sure), C Dwayne Dedmon (probably not a high priority for the Magic). The Magic has tons of cap room, they could easily bring in 2 or maybe even 3 max free agents but Orlando has never had success doing that in the past (okay, well, that one year when they got McGrady and Grant Hill), so what is the plan? And now they don't have a coach.

Who are the free agents they could be after? My guess: Chandler Parsons (Mavs), Al Horford (Hawks), Dwight Howard (Rockets) will be the big tickets in their sights. I guess Nicholson and Dedmon would be available if they swing and miss on other big men (maybe Brandon Bass, too). And I'm not sure whether they're into keeping Evan Fournier considering Mario Hezonja will be ready fairly soon; signing Fournier turns them both into instant trade bait. And, yeah, I would expect them to dangle Vucevic and #11 (and Fournier in a sign and trade?) in hopes of luring Cousins out of Sacramento.

I hate to be that guy but...this team is a mess! At least the Sixers are starting to have stuff to build around, the Magic currently feature Ersan Ilyasova as their 6th Man! What kind of youth movement is that? And, okay, I'll admit: Shabazz Napier is perhaps my LEAST favorite player in the league (man, every time I saw him play last year I instantly wondered, 'Who got hurt? Why is he playing?') and he is currently the prize of their bench. The Magic need to hit big in free agency--BIG!--and that's something Orlando has not had much luck with in the past. And I'm not sure bringing back Dwight Howard counts as big. If they could snag Cousins they instantly become the Sacramento of the East but they would still have plenty of cap space for free agents. Does Boogie, no coach and a mediocre youth movement entice any big stars out there? I'm not feeling it.

I like Vucevic, think he's a really underrated big man. I believe Gordon could develop into a serious baller. Oladipo, Payton and Hezonja have shown flashes of being competent NBA players. Beyond that, I don't see much of anything there. And the fact that this is after several years of youth movement planning, I gotta say I am wildly underwhelmed. Sam Hinkie sucked up all the criticism, I guess, because I think the general consensus is that Orlando is a team on the up. It looks to me like a very slow ascent.