Atlanta Hawks Observations

The Hawks went off last year but still got swept by the Cavs in the playoffs; this past season the Hawks were still good (but not as good) and still got swept by the Cavs in the playoffs. The initial murmurings were about 'blowing it up' and starting over. Could happen, but look at the roster for 2017-18: the only player signed as of now is Walter Tavares (for $1m) with a $21m player option for Paul Millsap (who could probably get more than that by then). Blowing it up? Uh, they're kinda already blown up: if they did nothing at all this team would just disintegrate on its own. So what exactly are they doing this off-season? Short answer: I have no idea. Two years down the line is such a mystery that their options for this summer are virtually infinite but whatever they do it must provide future salary certainty.

For next year they currently have: C Tiago Splitter, PF Paul Millsap, SF Thabo Sefolosha, SG Kyle Korver, PG Jeff Teague with a bench of Dennis Schroeder, Mike Scott, Tim Hardaway Jr, Lamar Patterson and the aforementioned Walter Tavares (remember: of all these players Tavares is the only one signed beyond next season). Largely bringing the band back together would mean Splitter taking up more of Horford's minutes and Sefolosha sliding into the Demarre Carroll--I mean, Kent Bazemore--spot. Schroeder, Scott and Hardaway reprise their roles in the rotation. That's what happens if they make no moves at all...which pretty much cannot happen...so this depth chart will invariably be updated by Nov 1.

Their current free agents: Al Horford (high priority, I would assume they'll throw everything they have at getting him signed long term), Kirk Hinrich (a candidate for retirement), Kent Bazemore (he's gonna get paid this summer, not sure if Atlanta will be his cash register of choice), Mike Muscala (I'd say very good chance he returns as he is cheap enough to bring back in case their more ambitious free agent choices fail to pan out), Khris Humphries (personally, I still think he's still got a coupla good years in him but with Splitter back from injury, I doubt he'll be back in Atlanta).

Atlanta, like everyone else in the league (except Cleveland), has no shortage of cap space. They are legitimate players for any and all free agents. As I said above, I assume #1 will be re-signing Horford. They chose not to deal him at the trade deadline (but also chose not extend him last summer) to maintain maximum flexibility but I still think he's an integral part of their identity and is still young enough to deserve the top dollar he's gonna get somewhere. After that its really hard to tell where they go: will they extend Teague and/Schroeder? If not, will they trade Teague and/or Schroeder? Will they pay Bazemore or let him walk? Do they think Sefolosha is a long term replacement for Bazemore (I'd say no but I also think Bazemore is kinda overhyped and not as irreplaceable as some may suggest)? Would they like to upgrade their bench depth or do they think Tavares will be ready to play next year? They still hold the rights to Barcelona's Marcus Eriksson and Olympiacos' Dimitrios Agravnis, are they fool's gold or trade bait or future roster taker-uppers?

They have #21, #44, #54 in the upcoming draft which would hopefully give them depth for the future. Those 2nd round picks are probably best served in looking for Euro players that could be brought back for 2017-18 (like Eriksson and Agravanis). Whereas with #21 they'd like to get a rotation player that could compete with Schroeder or Sefolosha or Splitter....but which one? C Diamond Stone, a guy that looked to me like a sure future top 5 pick just last summer in the under-17 FIBA World Cup, might still be there. Or maybe SG Caris Levert to take Korver's spot. Or maybe PG Tyler Ulis to give the Hawks even more options in trading Teague/Schroeder. Do they just take the best available or is there a strategy at work? Or might they dangle some of those picks to the Nets or Knicks, both apparently eager to get back into the draft; but, if they do trade those picks, what do they get? Are they looking for a starter or some bench depth or future picks? Who knows? This team is a total fucking black box!

I'd say their top flight free agent of choice ought to be SF Nicolas Batum: a defensive crazy man who can knock down 3's, currently plays for a division rival and would be the perfect replacement for Bazemore. (Unfortunately I kinda think Batum is gonna be the belle of the ball this summer, one of those dudes that is needed by 30 teams and may well collect the biggest paycheck of all) Rumor has it they want Dwight Howard, would they give him more then 2 years? Are they willing to let Horford walk (and then Millsap next summer) just to overpay Howard for 2-3 years? I dunno, they might. I would think SG/SF Gerald Henderson might be a nice player off the bench for them or maybe SF Jeff Green, both of whom should be reasonably affordable. But are they planning on re-signing Korver or Teague or Schroeder next summer? I dunno.

Salary certainty for the future, something they've avoided in recent years, is the real centerpiece of this summer's activities. Because the Hawks have no future, its hard to predict their present. If they don't take a hold of their future, it'll take hold of them.