The #1 Pick

The Wolves are on the clock.  They'll be rolling into next season with the last three #1 picks on their roster (and hoping the next one is more like the last one and less like the previous one).  In this draft the top 6 prospects according to conventional wisdom are (in alphabetical order): Mudiay, Okafor, Porzingas, Russell, Towns, Winslow.  The order in which these top 6 go is still up in the air (I think). Who do the Wolves prefer?

Next year's roster currently has 11 guys at $56.6m.  Three largest contracts: PG Rubio ($12.3m next year, guaranteed $55m over the next 4 years), C Pekovic ($12.1m next year, $36m over the next 3 years); SG Martin ($7m next year, $7.3m player option the year after).  Rubio and Pekovic are solid ballers when they're not hurt....but they're always hurt.  The Wolves want Rubio to be the guy with PG LaVine off the bench and if he's healthy I think that's a solid platoon at PG (but not good enough to make worthwhile trade bait of Rubio).  The Wolves have to get Pekovic to play to get value out of that contract; if he can't play then he gives nothing and no one else wants that contract, if he can play he's a solid C (better than Kendrick Perkins) and maybe a playoff team thinks they can afford him.  Best case scenario in both cases is just good health.  For Martin I'd say the best option is to try and move him; when they got him they needed a veteran scorer, a guy that wanted the ball in his hand, wanted to score.  Now the Wolves are deep into their youth movement and Martin's contract (and game) are sclerotic to the new process at work.  Just one of those things, no one's at fault, the times have simply changes, Martin would be better off elsewhere (Mavs?  Wizards?).

The next two payroll spots go to the last two #1 picks: Bennett (going into his 4th year rookie option year) and Wiggins (the future, doesn't even matter what his contract is).  Bennett will surely get another contract after his rookie deal runs out but he may not be the coveted free agent you would expect a #1 pick to be.  This is basically his last year to shine out and rise above or roam the league in a Thomas Robinson-kinda way; physically gifted enough to be collecting an NBA paycheck (he's not Jan Vesely) but not good enough to make you think he could be a great player (upside: he's not Michael Beasley off the court; downside: he's not Michael Beasley on the court either).  My guess is Bennett is KG's pet project for the next 12 months, Garnett and Flip got one year to figure out whether they cut bait on Bennett or unveil him as the next big star of the Western Conference.  Wiggins, on the other hand, needs more touches, more plays, more focus, more coaching, more money, more everything.  He is the future of Wolves basketball on and off the court, give him whatever he wants.  And then give him some more.

Next is SF Budinger (1 year player option $5m).  I'm not sure whether Budinger has exercised his option or not.  This looks to be a busy summer of player movement not sure if that is good or bad for Budinger's options.  Frankly I think 1 year/$5m is all I'd want to pay Budinger.  So if he stays, fine for the Wolves, that's a decent deal; and if he moves on, the Wolves can feel good that one of their competitors has overburdened their salary cap.  (Sun Tzu would've approved)

Then comes the rest of the youth movement: PG LaVine, SG Muhammad, PF Payne, C Dieng all still on rookie contracts.  I think LaVine is badass in the making (reminds me of a better-scoring Carter-Williams), the next year should be all about giving him room to blossom.  Muhammad has had flashes of nice moments but has yet to string together a single solid season, with good health I'd expect a good maturation season out of Muhammad.  I was impressed at what I saw of Payne (if you lean back and squint I can see some PJ Brown in this guy, some Bo Outlaw, Theo Ratfliff), not much of a scorer but a big time disruptive defender and tough guy presence.  Dieng has generally impressed me too, I think he could become a really solid scorer down low.  If these guys all improve next year, then the Wolves will be pretty good.

PG Brown is set to make just under $1m next year.  He is roster filler: if there are enough bodies then Brown becomes the perfect guy at the end of the bench; if they are too many bodies, Brown's deal can easily be absorbed and discarded.

There are 4 currently unsigned guys from 2015's roster: PF Garnett, SG Neal, C Hamilton, C Onuaku. What's KG gonna do?  He's sucked bad for a coupla years now (gave the Nets a pretty good playoff run in 2014), he ought to retire and rumors are he'll smoothly enter the Wolves front office soon enough; but he's a hometown fave, got a player-coach kinda quality to him, might be the best roster filler in the whole league.  There's no reason for the Wolves to give him more than $1m for 1 year (and he ought to give every penny of that to a children's hospital or something); his presence on the court can provide nothing for the Wolves except just his presence.  An intangible like that is hard to value....but I wouldn't value it all that highly.  So let's assume Garnett comes back for 1 reasonably-priced victory lap.  I think Neal moves on (he's probably most useful to the Spurs, I have no idea if that matches up), his minutes look to be going elsewhere for the foreseeable future and I think the Wolves can do better in the MLE-level-veteran-presence area.  Hamilton actually has pretty good numbers in his limited action and at his price point I'd say he's valuable as bench filler (and trade filler).  Onuaku played this year on a "Hardship Exception" (never heard of it before, don't know what it is, but I notice the Wolves ended the season with a 16 man roster, clearly Onuaku was the extra man) and his very very very limited numbers are kinda scary: 12/14 FGA in 68 minutes over 6 games for $43k (K!  When was the last time you saw a K in a pro athlete's salary?).  I have no idea who he is or if he fits anything about anyone's roster, but the Wolves seem well-stocked at Center and since that #1 pick grades at C (hopefully C+, ha!), it is unlikely that Onuaku makes the cut.

They hold the draft rights to a Bjelica (Fenerbache) and Dubljevic (Valencia) and a coupla other Euros, but nothing in the numbers or relative gossip suggests that either are any more than trade bait.

They hold the #1, #31 #36 picks in the upcoming draft.  (I'll come back to #1)  The mock draft at NBADraft.net suggests that the prospects from #27-#34 are either PF or SG.  They look to be pretty deep at PF but if either of the LSU guys Martin, Mickey are there, I wouldn't be surprised to see them go to the Wolves.  Otherwise I say they'd go for an SG.  #36 is a great place to scoop up potential 1st rounders that slip for some reason (never know, someone like RJ Hunter or Delon Wright maybe) but it'll probably end up going on a Euro player or as trade filler.

The current Wolves depth chart for 2016: PG Rubio, SG Wiggins, SF Muhammad, PF Payne, C Pekovic with PG LaVine, SG Martin, SF Budinger, PF Bennett, C Dieng off the bench.  Add in #1 (C?), #31 (SG?), PF Garnett (or an MLE), C Hamilton, PG Brown and the Wolves got themselves a full complement.

Since they're expecting maturation years out of most of those guys, they're immediate future is hard to predict: some of these guys will have surprisingly good years, some will be surprisingly bad. Either way it's all gonna be a surprise.  And of course the veterans are relying on being healthy, the most unpredictable thing in sports.  So the Wolves are going to be unpredictable next year.  Good teams are generally pretty predictable, the unpredictable teams are the ones that aren't very good. But, they've got trade bait and some cap space, they could be players this off-season.

Trading away Martin would be best (for team and player) and that could happen, he's not horrendously priced, he could be a good 2nd string option on a good team.  I'd say Budinger opting out would be fine for the team, it would give them more cap space to stock the bench.  Trading away Pekovic would be the dream scenario or at least getting a full year of productivity out of him but neither of those look realistic to me (next summer the words 'stretch provision' start getting thrown around).  Unless a great trade opportunity arises, I think for the next year they have to commit to Bennett, Muhammad to see what they've got with those guys; ideally, they both mature nicely and become a regular part of the roster/rotation or they get dealt with next summer.  Likewise with Rubio: if a great trade comes along they can move Rubio but unless a great trade appears, they need him to be healthy and playing.

So who do they draft #1?  Personally I think Okafor will be better than Towns in general but for the Wolves specifically, I think Winslow is the best fit for them or maybe Russell.  The Wolves have pretty good depth at C and in a small ball lineup they'll get C minutes out of Payne, Bennett and (yes, even) Garnett.  So drafting another young C doesn't seem like the biggest need since they're still developing Dieng and they need to get minutes out of Pekovic.  My gut is that Towns will be a bit like Dieng on offense (though from the block rather than the baseline) whereas Okafor will be more like Pekovic (a filler-upper in the middle). Strategically I'm not sure whether a sub should be a complement or a contrast to the starter.  I think Okafor will be a better rebounder but I'm not sure either Towns or Okafor will be better than Dieng or Pekovic (when healthy), at least in the next 2-3 years.  If the Wolves could trade Pekovic then drafting a C would be fine, but he's an albatross that needs playing time.  Hate to say it but the Wolves picked a bad year to have the #1 pick: the top two guys just don't immediately fit with the program.  For the Wolves to draft either Towns or Okafor, its just to groom them for either teams, it wouldn't be to build a cohesive plan around them.

They could go for a PG but they run into the exact same dilemmas as before: a) not sure whether Russell or Mudiay is the better fit and b) they really need their veteran (Rubio) to actually play.  They need to give minutes to Rubio and I think LaVine is already the heir apparent to him, getting Russell or Mudiay would likely just stunt their growth.

They might as well go for scoring depth and for that reason I'd take Winslow.  Also, I think Winslow is the top prospect anyway.  I understand the adoration of Okafor and the promise of Russell but I think Winslow could be pretty good quickly and he could be great over time.  I like Towns but his offensive game is a bit one-note and his defensive game is nice but nothing superb; I like Okafor, great size, good hands, should be a good rebounder, but could be a bit of statue on offense, might not be quick enough to be an effective scorer; Russell has flash, looks to be a good passer, good shooter, but I'm not overwhelmed that he'll be successful at the next level; Mudiay has the experience of playing pro ball, of living the day in-day out grind of it, that alone should give hope that his rookie season could be very productive; Porzingas is a typical European: maybe he'll be awesome, maybe he'll suck, I dunno; Winslow is gonna get his shot, get to the line, he's got a ways to go to be James Harden but that model is working pretty well right now, in the right environment with some luck I think Winslow could be pretty good early and really good eventually.

I know, I know...you don't wanna hear this: I'd trade the pick.  Picking Winslow at #1 would be weird, they've got to take either Towns or Okafor.  But they ought to go for Winslow at a later pick.  I don't think the Lakers move up from #2 (like last year's Wiggins-Parker debate, I think the Lakers take either of Towns or Okafor that is there) and I don't think the Sixers move up from #3 (Sixers move UP?  They want Russell, think they'd settle for Mudiay if they had to).  The Knicks would love to move up from #4 but, man, they got nothing to trade.  If the Wolves can figure out a pick swap with Orlando at #5 or Sacramento at #6 where they end up with Winslow and a bunch of other stuff, I'd say go for that.  Not impossible, I guess the play is to figure out who wants Towns or Okafor enough to pay for it.

I got a feeling Okafor goes #1 to Minnesota (setting up a draft day trade).