New Orleans State of Mind

The Pelicans fired Monty Williams yesterday.  Wouldn't have been a surprise 2 weeks ago but I kinda thought Williams had survived the rough times and was planning on coming back to the Pelican bench next year.  Guess not.   The firing of Williams is a mixed bag: he wasn't the problem but he probably wasn't the solution either.  The roster was a mess this year and the typical injury toll of the NBA hit the Pelicans harder than most this season.  All in all, I thought Williams did well to make the playoffs.

For now only 6 players are signed for next year at a total of $56.2m: SG Gordon (with a player option this summer), PG/SG Evans, PG Holiday, PF Anderson, PF Davis, SF Pondexter.  That leaves only $12m to bring in 9 players (worth noting that they seem likely to go over the cap).  They could perhaps bring back PG Cole, SG Babbitt, C AAjinca, C Withey as low cost bench-filling options.  (I'd say Asik, Fredette, Cunningham, Douglas are off to new locations)  They have only one pick in the upcoming draft: #56.  Not a sexy pick, indeed not someone likely to be on the Pelican roster next fall (I'd look to Europe in hopes of finding talent for the 2016-17 campaign).  They have the 2010 draft rights of Latavious Williams, whose shooting percentage in Spain has been eye-popping over the last coupla years; unfortunately nothing else about his game would suggest he is NBA-ready.

So how do the Pelicans get better next year?  If everyone stays healthy, they should at least be in the running for #8 in the West.  Beyond that, getting rid of Gordon is the only hope of flexibility.

Who's the coach next year?  (Obligatory 1st question)  Does Calipari want this job?  No.  Look, coaching Anthony Davis is a good career move for most basketball coaches but the roster is still a mess with little flexibility in the foreseeable future, the Western Conference is harder than Chinese algebra and a single injury could be career-endingly catastrophic.  Calipari has way too much upside at UK to head for a plucky 8th seed.

I suspect the coach everyone will want this summer is Alvin Gentry (currently bench coaching for the Warriors).  I think Gentry would be a great fit for the Pelicans but he'd also be a great fit for the Cavs and with the anti-Blatt drums a-beatin' in Cleveland, Gentry may well wait for that situation to shake itself out.  Tom Thibodeau has long been everyone's favorite for this job but Thibs may be seeking more than just a coaching gig, that GM chair might suit him too.  GM Demps just sold out Coach Williams after seemingly giving him the dreaded vote of confidence, might Demps be the next sold out?

What does it all add up to?  I dunno.  Regardless of the coach or the GM or any off-season roster adjustments, it feels like the Pelicans will look pretty much the same next year.  Another maturation year out of Davis should raise all boats and if Holiday and Anderson can stay on the court, seems like the Pelicans could be a pretty good team.  Good enough to win a playoff series?  Ehhhh, I can't go that far just yet.  But good enough to get into the playoffs, maybe even sneak up to 6th or 7th and that'd be a pretty good season.  Right now it looks like the Pelicans best chance to get better revolves around what everyone does with their off-season: what if the Blazers go busto?  What if the Mavs can't lure in good free agents?  What if the Lakers flounder for another year?  What's gonna happen to the Spurs?  Otherwise, I don't see how the Pelicans get better.  What they need is to get luckier.  Also its worth remembering they're almost certain to go over the cap next year.  If they wheel and deal well, they might parlay that extra expenditure into something special....or maybe they'll get fleeced by the Sixers again.