Playoff Prediction: Spurs in 5

6.5.14 -- Game 1 tips off in a coupla hours, gotta get this in.

The Spurs have won 8 straight at home since losing Game 2 to the Mavs in the 1st round.  The Mavs beat the Spurs 3 times, something the Blazers and Thunder were unable to do (and I'm guessing the Heat won't either).  But that is a unique grudge match unparalleled with the other opponents (even Lebron).  At this time last year I thought the Spurs were gonna beat the Heat mostly because Tony Parker was playing out of his mind.  I thought Parker was primed to remind everybody that he was winning rings in this league before Lebron and has long been a more bankable winner than most of the big stars of today (Carmelo, Durant, Aldridge, Howard, Harden, Blake & Paul, Steph Curry and co. and on and on).  He won Game 1 in Miami by himself but then tweaked his ankle in Game 3 (3?) and wasn't the same for the rest of the Series. Well, it didn't work out but I'm not ready to say I was wrong.  I've thought it over and I agree with myself...with this caveat: if Parker stays healthy I think the Spurs are actually waaaay better than the Heat.  If Parker is hobbled then its a much closer contest and Lebron alone would be tough to bet against.  A healthy Parker keeps the Spur offense moving and when it moves, they win.  The Spurs generally only lose when they don't play well (except against Dirk for some reason), the Spurs rarely lost this year when they played their best basketball.  With a healthy Tony Parker I fully expect the Spurs to play their best every time they take the floor.

The Heat are a mysterious team to me: so far this year, they have yet to play hard.  Lebron had an excellent year for a basketball player, but for a basketball player named 'Lebron' it was only an okay season.  Of the rest of the team only Chris Bosh made a noticeable jump from last year.  The rest of the supporting cast is still okay, still reliable (if overpaid), can still be very useful in service to a horse like Lebron.  But the team itself cruise controlled right to the #2 seed in the east, breezed through the first opponent like tackling dummies, went through the second playoff opponent like traffic cones and were way better than their third playoff opponent in 4.5 of the 6 games.  Are the Heat rested and ready?  Or does the ease with which they vanquished the pitiful East mean they can fall victim to the slightest challenge?  I think Lebron alone is quite capable of winning a championship and Lebron with Bosh is more than enough.  3 pointers, defense and no turnovers is all those 2 guys need from a supporting cast to go deep in the playoffs. But the Spurs, man....the m'f'n Spurs.  The Spurs are Clubber Lang in this story.  The Spurs can beat the Spurs and Lebron can be there to scoop up a title--it happened last year, it can happen again.  But I don't think the Heat can beat the Spurs.

(Random observation about Erik Spoelstra: I like him. The knee-jerk reaction is to slag him off as lucky, as in the right place at the right time.  He drives a nice car because daddy gave him a nice car, not because he earned it.  But, hey, man, he hasn't wrapped that nice car around any trees in the last 4 years.  4 straight conference titles is getting it done whatever your birthright.  But more than just thumbing my nose at the naysayers, I like him.  I like his style, I like his rotations, I like his understanding of metrics but with deeper understanding of his best players, the guy's got for-real x's and o's out there, he's more than just an ego-masseur, he's not some mealy Medvedev to Pat Riley's Putin, he's bonafide, he's beyond reproach....for now)

Yeah, I think I'm gonna do it: I'm going Spurs in 5.  I think the Spurs win the first two games in San Antonio, the Heat win game 3 in Miami and then it all comes down to game 4; if the Heat win, this series goes at least 6 games, if the Spurs win then I think they take game 5 at home.  I think the Spurs are more likely to win on the road than the Heat are.  There it is.  My initial thought was Spurs in 7 (i'd love to see 7 games of this matchup) and I'm very sympathetic to Heat in 6 (if they win Games 1 or 2 in San Antonio then that's the scenario).  As Parker goes, the Spurs go.  With Parker healthy the ball keeps moving and when the ball keeps moving the Spurs score with great efficiency.  They score more than their opponent.  Even when that opponent is Lebron James and the two-time defending champs.