NBA Draft

What to write about the draft....?  My head is still swimming by Embiid's broken foot sending shockwaves through the draft.  This draft is so deep that the consensus #1 pick is scaring people away (for the second season in a row...hmmm....).  So much drama at the top, fantastic!  I see trades, trades, trades.

I will reiterate my initial suggestion to the holders of the #1 pick, the Cleveland Cavaliers, to trade down and to keep trading down until the offers stop.  Picks are worth more than they've ever been worth before--the pick itself is potentially more valuable than the player one could draft with that pick--seems the way to maximize value is to trade it rather than use it.   Trade #1 to Milwaukee for #2+, trade #2 to the Sixers for #3+, trade #3 to the Magic for #4+, trade #4 to Utah for #5+ and so on and so on.  Also worth mentioning that just about everybody on the Cavs roster is available, including sign-and-trade deals with Deng and Hawes.  The Cavs have so many options that undoubtedly they'll blink, choose Jabari Parker and call themselves geniuses for not 'over-thinking' the draft.  Oh well.  The draft is deep enough that the Cavs could trade down and still get solid additions to their roster.  They could completely re-design their roster with just one pick.  This is the equivalent of one of those internet stories about trading a toothpick for a condo.

Also the suggestion I'm making applies to each pick, though not each team is in the same situation as the Cavs.  Example, the Bucks supposedly really want Jabari Parker and for a while it looked like #1 would be Embiid to the Cavs and the Bucks would get their guy with their pick.  But now that the Cavs are off Embiid, if they grab Parker then the #2 pick isn't as attractive to the Bucks as it was because they didn't have Wiggins ranked as high.  The Sixers at #3 want Wiggins, why couldn't the Bucks leverage the Sixers for #3+?  And again: if Wiggins is gone at #3 then the Sixers could trade down for someone else.  And again: if the Magic can't grab Exum, maybe they can trade down.  The dropping of Embiid is a ripple through the entire market in a way that Noel Nerlens last year was night: the trade for Nerlens at #6 also netted the Sixers the #10 pick this year. The #6 pick in this draft could bring a king's ransom.

In my mind this draft is giant trade wheel but assuming no trades are made, I guess it'll go like this: Cavs take Parker, Bucks take Wiggins, Sixers take Embiid, Magic take Exum, Jazz take Gordon, Celtics take Vonleh, Lakers take Randle, Kings take Payton, Hornets take Smart, Sixers take Saric, Nuggets take Lavine, Magic take Hood, T-Wolves take McDermot, Suns take Young.

I love Cleanthony Early, I saw some early mock drafts that had him falling to the Spurs at #30--god help us if the Spurs get a talent that good that late in the draft!  I'm also intrigued by TJ Warren and Tyler Ennis, they seem pretty low for their talent level.  Also Jarnell Stokes, James McAdoo and PJ Hairston in the second round?  And I was impressed with Johnny O'Bryant at LSU, another one that could fall late to the Spurs.

This could be a monumental draft, one of those drafts that produces 20-25 guys that are legit players in the league and I don't mean Hall of Famers or even All-Stars, but there could be a lot of dudes that have long careers playing professional basketball.  It is important to remember that most of the guys that will get drafted Thursday night will not be getting paid to play basketball in 3 years.  But this could replenish the talent pool in a way unfathomable.

And I can't imagine a trade-free draft night.  Impossible.  Too much volatility introduced by Embiid's bad foot.