Sixers-Hawks. The Hawks ripped through the Knicks in impressive fashion. Trae Young wrecked shop better than I ever would've expected (I was not a fan going into the 2018 draft). Always loved Bogdanovic and for the first time all year I see how he fits in that lineup. Thought Deandre Hunter took a step forward, so did John Collins. Capela is a presence down low, Galinari and Huerter are a potent bench, and Lou Williams makes for an interesting break-glass emergency piece (a sexier one, too, than Rajon Rondo, right?). The Sixers have big defenders (Simmons and Thybulle) to throw at Trae and a scoring trio in Embiid-Harris-Curry that is light years beyond anything the Knicks had going. Look. man, I hate to be that guy: but would you rather Ben Simmons or...Shai Gilgeous-Alexander? That's not as easy a question as it should be and that's tough for a #1 seed looking to make a run. (*) I like the Hawks, they're really well constructed and while they're newbies, the Sixers haven't won anything either. And they've got the wild card of Embiid's health: if Embiid misses games, I think I would expect the Hawks to win those games. The difference btw these two teams isn't that huge for a #1-#5 seed. I'll take the Sixers in 6 (--with the proviso that Embiid is healthy; if Embiid is out, the Hawks can absolutely steal this).
Nets-Bucks. The Nets scoring potential is awe-inspiring but I'm not particularly impressed with any other phase of the game: so-so rebounding, defense that disappears, rookie coach, a lot of stars with more history of blame-shifting than winning, a shallow fan base (**). The Bucks have been swimming upstream against the media expectations and this year has blessed them with a) their most complete roster and b) their lowest finish in 4 years. I think the Bucks are ready to win and the Nets are ready to lose (and then pretend like it don't matter). I'll take Bucks in 6.
Jazz-(Clippers/Mavs). Game Seven tomorrow! I really like the Jazz, I think they've got all the intangibles and are really built for success (in the post-Lebron world). I'll re-examine this matchup tomorrow.
Nuggets-Suns. This'll be good. The Nuggets are without Jamal Murray, but Jokic has hit another level (wow, didn't know that was possible!), Porter and Aaron Gordon have formed a nice tandem, Astin Rivers has been a plus and not a minus and the rest of the cast (Campazzo, Millsap, Monte Morris, JaMycheal Green) have pitched in nicely. I think Coach Malone has done a great job molding a team around Jokic, beating the Blazers is not a toss-off, that team can hang with anyone. The Suns didn't have to face a full strength Lakers squad (but, for my part, I always thought they would've beaten the Lakers anyway) and they'll get a Murray-free Nuggets squad. Booker is a star, a bright shining star, and Ayton blew me away with his play against Anthony Davis. Jokic is a totally different animal, but suddenly I like Ayton's chances to not get thoroughly smoked. I think the wild card for the Suns is Cam Payne: can he keep up his good play with and without Chris Paul? Becase I doubt Chris Paul plays all seven games, so it could be up to Payne to be a difference maker. You know what? I'm going with the Nuggets at home. Jokic is really good, their home court advantage should come in handy and I don't think the Suns are ready just yet (***). I'll say Nuggets in 7.
(*) Yeah, I'll say it: I'd rather have Anthony Edwards going against Trae than Ben Simmons. Yeah, I know he'd go 11-30 for his 26 points but he'd bust ass and he'd get to the rim. Simmons is afraid of scoring, he's a great defender and a high level playmaker, but he's not the guy in the R-rated movie, he's the PG-13 guy and this is the playoffs, man, I need a guy that can make a fuckin' FT once in a while.
(**) You know the conspiracy theory has always been that the NBA wants NY and LA in the Finals every year to guarantee great ratings. But if we got Nets-Clippers, isn't it possible that could so alienate those key markets that it's actually the worst possible matchup from the League's perspective?
(***) When CP opts out and leaves the Suns with a gajillion dollars, I could see a supporting cast of Mike Conley, Evan Fournier, maybe a flyer on Marvin Bagley take shape. Or how about Lonzo Ball, Kelly Olynyk and Lauri Markennen instead?
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