East
Sixers - Wizards. If the Wizards play their absolute best game, I don't think they win more than one game. The Sixers are not exactly a juggernaut, but they can defend and score enough to knock around a half-assed squad like the Wizards. Sixers in 5. (1 Game in: yeah, that's still what I think; Beal and Westbrook can get hot and steal a game but I can't see any more than that)
Nets - Celtics. The Celtics were sub-par this year, largely (I think) because of an unreliable PG (Kemba) and a 2nd string that simply couldn't keep pace. The Nets have scoring on top of scoring and the Celtics will be without their most important wing defender (Jaylen Brown). Nets in 4. (1 game in: dude, the Celtics shot the lights out in the 1st half and still lost by double digits...yeah, Celtic perfection might cover the spread but ain't gonna win a single match in this series)
Bucks - Heat. Last year, I liked the Heat and I was right; but this year, the Bucks are coming in underrated and the Heat are coming in overrated. The Heat have been okay this year but Adebayo has not taken a leap, nor has Herro, and while Dragic looks ready to play, not sure about Butler or the rest of the bench. The Bucks, on the other hand, look stronger on both ends of the court and are flying under the radar (though Giannis just as easily could've won another MVP this season). Won't be a walkover, but I like the Bucks to be the better team throughout. Bucks in 6. (2 games in: yeah, not surprised the Heat came in hard the first night (but came up short) and limped out in game 2 (and got drilled; I like the Bucks Game Four and finish the series back in Milwaukee))
Knicks - Hawks. This'll be the fun one! Two teams that haven't made much noise in a while, both on the rise, neither is really ready to win but both are gonna be tough outs--almost a shame they're facing each other (like when two spunky underdogs accidentally get paired together in March Madness). Should be a rock fight from start to finish, I like Randle to rise above and seal Game Seven. Knicks in 7. (1 game in: nice little upset for the Hawks in Game One, but I still see it going seven, so not a shocker)
West
Jazz - Grizzlies. I would've given the Warriors a puncher's chance to really fluster the Jazz, but I don't see the Grizz getting much done. The Grizzlies have a nice toughness and depth but they're real green, man, none of those guys have ever done anything. Beating the Warriors was a nice biscuit for them, but I don't see them giving Utah much to worry about this year. Jazz in 5. (1 game in: The Grizz keep it going! I like the effort, they caught the Jazz flat footed and showed off some real firepower. The Grizzlies are already better than I gave them credit for, I can see them winning another game, but in the end the Jazz are still the better team and should shine out; I'll change it to Jazz in 6)
Suns - Lakers. Yeah, I know Lebron is awesome and Anthony Davis at his best is maybe the most un-guardable player in the league and they're the defending champs and, you know, Lakers...yeah, yeah, I get all that. But neither Lebron, nor AD is at full strength, the legendary Lakers home court advantage can't be nearly as great as usual and the rest of the supporting cast is really thin this time around. I don't see what Andre Drummond is supposed to do for them (*), I don't see Kuzma. Mntrezl, or KCP being a difference maker, and as much as I love Caruso (love that guy!), he's not enough of a factor to make up for a soft night from either of the big stars. The Lakers have no margin for error and do you really wanna face Chris Paul in that circumstance? I like Devin Booker to go off, the Suns have the better supporting cast, the surer PG and the home court advantage and honestly I'm not sure the Lakers have 4 really good games in them (yeah, it takes 16 to win a championship...I don't even see 4). I'll take the Suns in 7 (feels like a sucker bet). (1 game in: a little surprised at how thoroughly Ayton dismantled AD but not at all surprised that the Lakers couldn't get going. Wouldn't be surprised to see a repeat in Game Two; I'm sticking with the Suns in 7)
Nuggets - Blazers. The Nuggets without Jamal Murray should still be good enough to get past the Blazers. Lillard, McCollum and Melo/Simons/Powell can definitely go off and finish games, but I think the Nuggets rotation headlined by MVP Jokic will be enough to get by the Blazers. I wanna say Nuggets in 6, but I like the home court to hold, so I'll say Nuggets in 7. (2 games in: a little surprised the Blazers took the first game simply because I thought the home team would dominate--and they may have just stolen the series right there; but I had it going 7 and they're both good teams that can get hot at any moment, so I'll stick with Nuggets in 7 (although clearly I got more doubt than I did before))
Clippers - Mavs. Fun series! Last year, the Mavs just weren't ready for the Clippers and frankly that dynamic should not have changed. But Luka just continues to put his stamp on the league and the Clippers are quite capable of Clipping, so this series is definitely worth keeping an eye on. Wouldn't be surprised to see the momentum in this series go back and forth throughout. I'll stick with the vets with the home court. Clippers in 7. (1 game in: not shocked by the Mavs stealing Game One, I think the game was closer than it looked and that the Clippers tried to experiment on D and it didn't work. I can see either team winning but this doesn't change my original thought; I'll stick with the Clippers)
(*) Why didn't they take a run at Blake Griffin? Was Blake set on the Nets or did the Lakers truly think he was washed? At the time, the Lakers were still on course to play the Clippers in the second round, why not roll in with Blake in a Laker uni? What revenge: the Clippers made the recent moves possible by cutting bait on Blake and exiling him to Detroit, for Blake to reappear with Lebron and AD would've been the ultimate kick to the crotch, no?
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