94 NBA Debuts in 2020-21. 21 played over 1000 minutes, 27 played fewer then 100 minutes. 22 averaged more than 20MPG, 9 averaged over 10PPG,
This rookie class looks to me like a lot of mid-level talent but not a lot of obvious stars. I think this class is going play a ton of games in the future, but probably not a lot of All-Star Games. That's not bad, the world needs good basketball players the same way it needs great ones.
My criteria: ROY, to me, is a forward-looking (as opposed to backward-looking) award. So, for example, in most of these Awards I have an obsession with Minutes Played (*); but with Rookies, I don't give a shit how many minutes they played. I care about who seems to be the most promising prospect going forward. This is pretty much pure eyeball test because I don't really care about the stats on rookies. How many of these rookies got MVP votes? (Zero) How many of these rookies single-handedly dragged their teams into the playoffs? (Zero) How many of them led the league in anything? (Zero) So...what does comparing their stats tell us? (Almost Zero) The question is who has the best chance to be a bust out superstar? This year, I thought that was a pretty easy call.
Rookie of the Year: Anthony Edwards (Wolves)
Edwards is still very raw but his potential left the Wolves feeling optimistic at the end of the season when, frankly, not much good happened (and they've probably already given away their lottery pick). His athleticism is something unseen before and if Minnesota wasn't such a gloomy organization (**), I think we'd have seen a lot more of him in the general NBA buzz. The way he gets to the rim is something to behold, man, and he's got at least 3-4 more years of getting better at that! Clearly he hasn't actually played much basketball in his life--and I think that's great! He's raw but he doesn't have bad habits! He can be trained to be something unworldly (get to work on FT%, my man, you're gonna be at the line an awful lot). Yeah, the Wolves have pretty much botched everything the last few years and picking a project at #1 was not a guarantee, but I think Edwards has amazing upside and he's my pick for ROY.
I'll take Tyrese Halliburton (Kings) next. Yeah, yeah, I like LaMelo Ball (Hornets) as much as the next guy, he's got a lot of upside as a playmaker and just a fun watch on the court. But I've got doubts about his ability to be a consistent force, I think it's going to take him a while to settle in to being a reliable player and the way the Hornets have managed rosters over the years, I got a bad feeling he might not ever get there. And head-to-head, Halluburton is a much better shooter and has a better asst:to, though LaMelo gets to the line at a much better clip and is a better rebounder. I like both of these guys, I think they're really similar players but I think Halliburton actually has a better chance to be the better player.
I'll take Immanual Quickly (Knicks) next. As a rook, I thought he handled himself well as a playmaker and is clearly gonna be a good scorer. (The Knicks movement for all Kentucky/Duke guys is probably not a bad idea for them)
I'll round out my top five with Patrick Williams (Bulls) is definitely a player--again, though, probably not an all-star, just a reliable down low guy for many years to come. Probably not gonna be the biggest number hanger but he's the kinda guy other guys are gonna wanna play with.
A few more nice rookies: RJ Hampton (Magic), Alkesej Pokusevski (Thunder), Saddiq Bey (Pistons), Precious Achiuwa (Heat). And I'm not out on James Wiseman (Warriors), I think he can still be a really good player but it might not be for Golden State (if he'd had Klay Thompson....oh, we could've gotten a real look at him). Not a bust, clearly has talent on both ends, but he's young, a bit of a project, I think he's still got a ton of upside and Steve Kerr will hopefully be the guy to get it.
Not sure about: Cole Anthony (Magic), Malachi Flynn (Raptors), Tyrese Maxey (Sixers), Devin Vassell (Spurs), Dani Avdija (Wizards), Desmond Bane (Grizzlies). They all had moments of looking good but then again...not. Hard to tell which is these guys will bloom, which won't, or which will need a change of scenery. Although I can proscribe a change of scenery for one player already: Obi Toppin (Knicks). I thought he looked kinda nice and there's definitely potential there, but it ain't gonna be with NYK (unless they move on from Julius Randle--which can totally happen, btw, don't underestimate the Knicks' ability to outsmart themselves). (***)
Two from my blind spot: the Cavs are in my blackout zone and I didn't watch much Rockets this year, so Isaac Okoro (Cavs) and Jae'San Tate (Rockets), nice to meet you. Nice stats, Okoro in particular really looks like a promising member of the Cavs core (moving on from Kevin Love has got to be their priority for the summer) and, well, the Rockets will likely suck at everything for the next coupla years, so Tate will probably neither add nor subtract from that going forward (which makes valuing his on-court play virtually impossible); is Tate built to dominate a crappy team or is he legit good and stuck in a soul-sucking situation? I dunno, could go either way.
And there's a batch I'm little more muted on: Theo Maledon (Grizzlies), Payton Pritchard (Celtics), Jaden McDaniels (Wolves), Chuma Okeke (Magic), Facundo Campazzo (Nuggets), Isiah Stewart (Pistons), Killian Hayes (Pistons), Aaron Nesmith (Celtics). I can see them all becoming reliable rotation guys but I predict zero all-star appearances from this batch.
(*) Yeah back in the day I took Joel Embiid over Malcolm Brogdon....and I really like Brogdon! But I got no regrets, Embiid looked to be the better player at the time and he has become the better player in the years since. That's what I'm talking about: these rookie stats have come and gone and made no difference to anyone, this award is about tomorrow not yesterday.
(**) I still blame Thibs. Flip Saunders (RIP) was building something and Thibs turned it into nothing.
(***) Displacement is what brought Randle to NYK (Lebron pushed him out LA and Zion pushed him out of New Orleans) seems only fitting that he's gonna push Toppin out to find his space.
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