2017-18 NBA Playoffs (Conference Finals)

East
Cavs @ Celtics
Celtics got the coach (Stevens), the home court, a handful of newly beloved heroes (Tatum, Brown, Rozier, Smart) surrounding an underappreciated veteran (Horford) whose playing his ass off right now and has endured a lot already, they've got a lot of heart, they've got a lot of brains and they're playing on house money with home court; the Cavs got Lebron...whose got the advantage?

Looking back over my picks before the last round I had the Raptors in 7 (ha!) and the Sixers in 6. Well, the Raptors, I mean...that was never gonna happen. Meanwhile, the Celtics outwitted, outgutted, outplayed the Sixers (though the Sixers were the better team in general). The Celtics battled with the Bucks and got the best of the Sixers; the Cavs battled with the Pacers and got the best of the Raptors. Pretty even actually. The Celtics are doing it as a unit, the Cavs are doing it as a one-man show. The lone crazy efficient scoring machine or the coach that plays seven level chess? I gotta go with Lebron. He's the man, still the man, still gonna be the man for 5 more years at least. If Love and Korver both shine out, the Cavs can win in a landslide. But even if its just Lebron on his own, he always wins, so why wouldn't he win this time, too?

That said, the Celtics really do have everything going. Simmons is not Lebron (yet) but Embiid and Saric are a lot more daunting than anything the Cavs are trotting out there; I'm not the coach but I'd make Lebron score every point. Don't let Love or Korver touch the ball, don't let Smith get comfortable, use Baynes to outscore Tristan, work George Hill into the ground, torture Jeff Green on defense. Meanwhile, mark Lebron man-to-man, make him score every point, attack like hell when he's out of the game. The trick is you can't abandon the approach, it's a move toward attrition, thus you have to trust the long term plan even if it looks like its not working (which is how you get crushed in the modern NBA).  Does that win four games out of seven? Probably not but the whole point is to make Lebron outwork even his own unhumanly workload. And what if Lebron re-realizes that the Cavs aren't good enough and starts daydreaming about moving on? Not impossible that the Celtics keep a good groove going and the Cavs fall apart anew. Again: just because they beat the Raptors doesn't mean they've solved all problems. I don't think they're gonna run through the Celtics the way they ran through the Raptors, but they got Lebron.

I'll take Cavs in 7. I like the Celtics to keep some magic going but I can't go against Lebron in a Game Seven.


West
Warriors @ Rockets
Warriors got their groove going against the Spurs, kept it rolling against the Pelicans. The Rockets have the best chance of hanging with the Warriors, but I don't see that happening. I think Durant can outdo Harden, I think Curry can outdo Paul, I think Klay is better than the rest of the Rockets roster, if Iguodala keeps playing smart and Livingston and Looney keep giving good minutes, I don't see the Rockets winning much. The Warriors like to take a road game off but I bet they don't do that this time. I like the Warriors to take Game One and control the series quick like.

I'll take Warriors in 6.