2017-18 NBA Finals

Both conferences went to Game Seven this year (for the first time since 1979) and both were decided by....crappy shooting. The Celtics just never got hot enough to hang with Lebron and the Rockets went ice cold in the second half, after over-performing in the first half. And so Cavs-Warriors IV begins tonight. This was my pre-season prediction and my prediction at the end of the regular season, so not a shocker, though the Cavs and Warriors struggled more this season than previous years.

We know what the Cavs are: Lebron and a bunch of other guys (which may or may not included Kevin Love). The Warriors at the top are the same as ever but the back end is not as good as years passed. But the story is still the same: if the Warriors shoot well, they'll probably win; if not, then the Cavs can hang around and have a chance.

The Warriors aren't as deep as previous models, they are dangerously susceptible to injury to one of their main guys (as losing Iguodala against the Rockets showed) but barring that should have enough offense to beat anyone. The Cavs are still figuring it out together (I can see this exact same squad being much better next year, oddly enough) and go as far as Lebron can carry them. He's carried them this far but Smith, Hill, Clarkson, or Thompson will need to score in addition to Love and Korver. I think Love and Thompson are the Cavs' best chance to create mismatches (though not necessarily points). I think the Warriors can more or less shut down Korver and Smith and they can outrun any addition brought by Hill or Clarkson. Draymond isn't as good as past years but Durant and Klay should be enough to outlast the Cavs.

I'll take Warriors in 5.  I like the home team to win each of the first three games, then Golden State to steal Game Four in Cleveland and wrap it up in 5. I'll take Curry as the MVP, with this rationale: in their previous championships it was the third option guy (Iguodala, Durant) that won the MVP's but this is now Durant's team with Klay as the second banana and Curry as the bonus. Curry hasn't shot all that well yet, I think he blows up in this series and reminds everyone he's the king.