The Finals So Far

Tonight is Game Six in Cleveland, Warriors up 3-2, Draymond back from suspension, Bogut out for the rest of the Series. I think the Warriors wrap it up tonight.

Klay has been magnificent throughout the post-season but except for a 25 point performance in Game Four, he's been pretty ordinary (which is to say, way below Klay's ordinary) against the Cavs. Is he just tired from a long season (two long seasons with an appearance for Team USA in there)? Could be. Shooters rely on their legs and his legs must be pretty worn down by now. He's such a phenomenal shooter, just flings the ball toward the basket and expects it to go in. He built his rep on defense, which has been fine but nothing superlative this series. Klay torched the Rockets, carried the Warriors against the Blazers, was legendary against the Thunder, where has his game gone? I think he shows up big tonight, I expect old timey Klay, bombing 3's and running the floor like a champ.

Curry has also been pretty so-so so far in this series. In Game Three the Cavs stumbled onto the strategy of working on the defensive side (I thought it akin to running right at a scary defensive end rather than running away from him), but when the refs swallowed their whistles in the 2nd half of Game Four (and have yet to un-swallow them), that strategy kinda dried up and the Cavs were stuck watching Curry drop bombs on them. Rumors are that nagging injuries (shoulder, knee, thigh) are starting to catch up to Curry and that's probably true. He only needs one more win, though, to get his vacation started. Without Draymond in the last game, the Warriors' defense sagged in the middle and the Cavs were able to get hot, which means Curry has to work more than usual and with less profit. Tonight they'll be without Bogut but that's an absence they can weather a little better (expect to see Ezeli shooting lot of FT's tonight), as long as Draymond's back to plug the lane and get the transition going. Curry needs to hit shots like his old self, if he falters the Cavs will hang around. I think he will hit tonight. I think the Curry-Klay-Draymon trio comes up big back in Cleveland.

Draymond, for my money, was the team's MVP this season: his work on both ends makes the effortless awesomeness of Curry and Klay possible. Without Draymond those two have to work harder on defense and harder to get good shots, they're still good but their ceilings are quite a bit lower. The trouble with Draymond is that his fiery temper is one technical away from getting him run out of this series. In Game Four, when all was lost, Lebron hit the emergency switch (which I think he truly wanted to avoid and realized he couldn't) and got under Draymond's skin resulting in a suspension for Game Five. The Cavs will be coming at Draymon hard tonight--HARD--and he better keep it together. Without Bogut, Draymond will be expected to do even more than usual (especially in the first few minutes of each half) and if he falters the Cavs will pounce. But I think Draymond holds it together, indeed, I think he'll be at his absolute best tonight, leaving the pundits to argue over who was the MVP of this series.

Bogut has been his usual solid self, thought he was particularly effective in Game Two. He twisted his knee in the last game and has been ruled out for the Series. He doesn't play a lot of minutes any more but he still plays good D and is a steadying force. He will be missed though his absence isn't catastrophic for this team. Ezeli isn't as steady, isn't any better as an FT shooter and is more likely to foul out. Draymond and Iguodala will have to do more tonight.

Iguodala has been good but not great. The conundrum of the Warriors series is that really no one has been great so far. They've all been pretty good which has been good enough for three wins out of five but someone will have to be a big dog to get one more win. It might be Iguodala. I think he should mark Kyrie tonight. Let Lebron do his thing and put the clamp on Kyrie, make Love or Jefferson or Smith make big plays. If Iguodala shuts down Kyrie, I think the Warriors win easily. And if Iguodala scores effectively tonight that might be the same thing.

Livingston was just untouchable in Games One and Two and though he's slipped back down to earth somewhat, he's been really good in this Series and really important to the Warriors' chances of winning. The key to tonight's game is Klay and Curry regaining their form and going for big points, but Livingston has a part to play in keeping the Cavs off balance and keeping the scoring going. If Livingston effectively attacks the lane, Klay and Curry will get better shots and the Cav defenders become more foul prone.

Barbosa played great minutes in Golden State but back in Cleveland its up to Varejao to get the important minutes off the bench. Varejao was always a pretty good player (the poor man's Joakim Noah), it was his spotty health (and ridiculously huge contract) that has held him back in recent years. But he only needs ten good minutes tonight to make a big difference. Keeping Love off the boards, getting an extra foul on Tristan, stifling Kyrie once or twice, making a coupla good passes, if he can do those things a few times in this game, it'll have a big impact. Also look for McAdoo to get some important minutes.

Lebron has been great, as usual. That said, I thought he let Game Four get away from him: he attacked the basket well but he was always looking to pass rather than finish and the Cavs did a great job of getting the Warriors in foul trouble in the 1st half (there were a few plays were Klay was afraid to play defense) and then abandoned that aggressiveness in the 2nd half. Weird game. And when it was spiraling out of control, Lebron had to take his opportunity to get in Draymond's head. I don't think he wanted to do it but the chance to get Draymond ruled out for a game or two was too great to pass up, so he let Draymond's typical taunts wind him up when he would normally just ignore them and goaded Draymond into making a mistake. Worth noting that that option is still in the table in tonight's game: one more tech and Draymond is suspended again. I think he'll attack Curry and Draymond as much as possible. And while he'd like to be his playmaking self, I think he needs to score 30 at least tonight. And I reckon he will.

Kyrie was bananas in Game Five, very Klay-like from beginning to end. He knows he can do that so I think he'll try to do it again. Double edge sword: the upside is Klay-like setting records with his efficiency, downside is Westbrook-like overplaying, overdribbling, overshooting and forgetting his teammates. Will we get Klay Kyrie tonight or Russell Kyrie? I'm voting for the latter. I think he gets hot early but shoots himself out and tries too hard, forcing Lebron to pick up the slack. Once that happens, the Warriors go into lights-out mode and finish the game comfortably in the 4th quarter. We'll see.

Love has been much maligned in this series and while he deserves some of that blame, he doesn't deserve as much as he's getting. The consensus is that he's lowering his own value but this is a hot take culture: if he goes for 20 tonight, everyone'll think he's the Series MVP. Love has been generally ineffective on both sides but he hasn't been awful. He's slow on defensive switches and not a great perimeter defender but he's gonna have opportunities to make plays and knock down shots. If he does those things, the Cavs will hang around to the end; if he doesn't, he'll be putting his house up for sale by the end of the week. (Honestly, I say either way, he won't be back next year; he's not a good fit, he never was--in fact, don't you think the Cavs could really use Andrew Wiggins in this series?)

Tristan Thompson has played well this series, showing better footwork and perimeter D than I would've thought possible. His FT% is deathly but he's solid around the rim and I expect him to make plays against Ezeli tonight. The Cavs need everything they can get, Tristan's rebounds and D will be impactful. He'll have to punish Draymond and help Love whenever possible.

JR Smith is a puzzle: he can go from brilliant to non-existent and back as fast as any player I can think of. In Game One he played 37 minutes and had 3 FGA. 3! Dude, what is out there for except scoring? If he's only gonna get 3 shots in 37 minutes then either something is seriously wrong with the gameplan or he's having a monumentally bad night. He was good in Game Three but otherwise hasn't given the Cavs much this series. I expect Lebron to look for Smith early tonight, if he gets going he can be the difference in keeping the series alive. Otherwise, he needs to D up Klay like his life depends on it.

Richard Jefferson has been a surprise in this series, he's a really nifty scorer around the rim. Unfortunately in Game Five he became turnover prone whereas before he was quite sure handed with the ball. He needs to keep his nerve tonight and score points off the bench, because I don't think Lebron + Kyrie will be enough tonight. If he makes buckets, the Cavs will hang around.

Dellavedova was a hero in last year's finals, playing waaaaaay over his shoes and was a top quality agitator for most of that series. This year, with Kyrie back, Delly has mostly disappeared (his agitator role was usurped by Varejao to the tune of Delly getting called for a foul that he was in fact the victim of), but I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a few important minutes off the bench tonight. The attack on Curry and Draymond needs to come from anyone and everyone and Delly can be quite annoying out there, and that'll be his job. He may not score any points but he's got 6 fouls to give and I expect to see him giving them.

A coupla weeks ago I heard David Thorpe on a podcast talk some serious shit about Iman Shumpert's game. I gotta admit ever since then I've watched Shumpert with a different eye. Thorpe's right, dude, Shumpert kinda sucks. He can't even dribble with confidence. His defensive effort is solid but his footwork isn't great and he's not much of a rebounder and offensively he can't be relied on for anything. Seriously, man, watch him. He's pretty terrible. I guess he'll get his shot against Klay but if he's getting torched, expect him to shift over to Ezeli-hacking.

I'm not sure when Mozgov disappeared from the Cavs philosophy but I can't help thinking he's better than they think. He's so far out of the rotation now that I doubt he'll play big minutes ever again but he can agitate and pester, he might get some minutes tonight to hack on Ezeli or frustrate Draymond. And Mo Williams...I forgot about that guy.

I expect the Cavs to return to the strategy of wearing out Curry on defense, to go hard at Draymond early and often and to foul Ezeli as much as possible.

I expect the Warriors to stifle Kyrie, get masterful bench minutes and make buckets.

If both of my expectations bear out, I think the Warriors' scoring will be too much. The Warriors were money night after night this season and though they've been quite a bit less sharp in the playoffs, they're still quite capable of putting up big big numbers. Bogut's out and Draymond might have to tone down his game a touch, but I think the scorers will score and the Series ends tonight.