NBA Draft Preview

Before the draft tomorrow night, I wanted to get a few thoughts down on a handful of players. I think there's a good potential for a lot of trades this year (next year too), the rising cap means everybody has more room to wheel and deal and that begins on draft day. The Championship is over but tehcnically the draft is the last business of the season. The free agency period (opening July 7) is the beginning of next season and by the end of July a lot of teams will look really different.

Ben Simmons has apparently been told that he will be Philly's #1 pick. I watched him this year and he is a tremendous talent. He's not a natural born scorer but his instincts with the ball are impeccable and his size will give him a great chance for success at the next level. Comparisons include Lamar Odom, Boris Diaw, Evan Turner. Let's start with those: great handle, can survive in the lane, and a great sense of the game. Over time, though, is ceiling is Lebron James: ball handling big man who can dictate what everyone else needs to do from the point forward spot. Simmons needs to round out his scoring game before we can even begin to compare him to the great Lebron (and we need to see some of that defense too) but when we're talking prospects, why not think big? The downside is that he didn't give great effort at LSU but in his defense, his teammates were not great, his coach is a bit of a doofus and the b-ball culture in general at LSU is so-so (though it ought to be kinda great). Ehhh, I'm not worried about any of that. He was the #1 prospect for the entire season, you can't blame the kid for having his mind on other things (its LSU's job to keep him interested and they dropped the ball, don't blame the kid!). I think Ingram has great offensive upside but I'd go with Simmons #1.

Brandon Ingram attacked the basket really well in college and his 3-point stroke was impressive enough. I didn't watch enough to get a real sense of his defense but he's long and active, he can be taught to do the right things. I think his upside is great (especially early, don't be surprised if he develops faster than Simmons), he just needs to keep growing and getting his reps on the court. It seems like the Lakers love him, I think it'll be a good fit (they are a young squad but I expect them to be busy in July).

Dragan Bender has been rated top ten since last summer without any drop off. I haven't seen him, I know little about him but the fact that scouts didn't waver on him indicates that he must be a legit prospect (especially since foreign prospects often fall off the radar). I've seen him as high as #3 and I suspect the Celtics will take him because he presents tantalizing trade possibilities. I think the basic comparison for Bender is Nikola Mirotic but younger, quicker and probably a better shooter (which puts him in Dirk territory) or maybe something like a cross between Rashard Lewis and Danilo Gallinari, a long lanky wing man that can make plays or fill it up from outside. The Celtics could use that, the Suns could use that at the #4 pick, I don't expect Bender to last long in this draft.

Kris Dunn seems like a solid, though not terribly flashy PG. He's kinda local for the Celtics at #3, he could be groomed to replace Rubio for the Wolves at #5, the Pelicans can use all sorts of help everywhere at #6. I expect he'll be gone by the seventh pick.

Jaylen Brown needs to develop his game but he's certainly a fine athlete and another prospect that didn't drop from lottery range all year long. He seems kinda raw, not sure what he can do right away for some of these teams. I wouldn't wish getting drafted by the Kings on my worst enemy, but they do have Bay Area envy, if the kid from Cal is still there I expect the Kings to jump all over him. I think he's a terrible fit (with or without Cousins) but I wouldn't be surprised to see him go #8, though I have him going #9 to the Raptors.

A quick word on the Kentucky Wildcats: As a Cats fan I started this season with great hope for Skal and Murray and Briscoe. My initial thoughts were thus: Skal kinda sucks, Briscoe is nice but not a solid enough PG to dominate as a freshman, Murray is a nice scorer, solid prospect but not the kinda guy that carries a team, Poythress is an athlete but not very good at basketball, Marcus Lee is a phenomenal athlete but his offensive contributions will be minimal and I like Tyler Ulis but he's a bench player that shouldn't be getting 35 minutes a night. I love my Cats but I saw no scoring and just assumed this team would struggle all year long. Then something happened: hey, man, Ulis can play and when Ulis and Murray were both on, UK was actually pretty good (unfortunately unless they were both playing great, UK wasn't very good). Murray doesn't bomb 3's but he's a great midrange scorer and a smart player (comp: Rip Hamilton), Ulis is a waterbug type that keeps the tempo high and wants to lead a dynamic offense (comp: young Tony Parker), Skal has moments where you see what the scouts saw coming out of high school (nice turnaround hook, decent 15 footer, decent ballhandler) but he doesn't do anything well enough often enough to merit a lottery pick...but somebody's gonna take him I'm sure. I would not put Murray ahead of Buddy Hield on my board but I can see him going #3 to the Celtics (though I would prefer Bender) or #5 to Wolves (though I would prefer Hield), I think he goes #7 to the Nuggets. Ulis to my eye is a late 1st/early 2nd round guy, which is perfect because I think he's better for a good team, I can see him ending up with the Spurs or Warriors or maybe early 2nd round to the Bucks. As for Skal, I'm not sure, he's a project, he absolutely will not contribute in the first coupla years, so who can afford to stash him for a while? I have him going #13 to the Suns (who will dangle him as trade bait).

I kinda love Buddy Hield. He's a little older than the rest of these guys but he knows who he is, he can stroke the 3 and I think he's ready to play right away. I think he's a perfect fit for the Wolves at #5. (Right now Hield in Minnesota is my pick for ROY)

I also kinda love Damontis Sabonis. I don't think he's a star at the next level but I think he's a reliable, smart big man that can pass the ball and be in the right place at the right time. I have him going #7 to the Nuggets but if he's still there at #8 I think the Kings take him. (Also I think he's the perfect fit for the Warriors especially if they let Barnes go. I doubt they'd aggressively move up for a rookie but he'd be good as the future replacement for Bogut)

Marquesse Chriss is kinda the anti-Skal: whereas Skal was the #1 prospect out of high school who underwhelmed in NCAA but people still want him anyway, Chriss was not even in the top 50 who underwhelmed in NCAA...that people still want anyway. I don't get it, I don't see anything there that looks promising to me. I have him going #8 to the Kings, which I think would be disastrous for both. Realistically I think #20 to the Pacers is where he ought to go--though I think he's a reach even there!--but he'll be long gone by then.

I watched Henry Ellenson in the U-17 World Cup a coupla years back and I thought he was a good but not great prospect. I think he's a Zeller: big man, smart, moves pretty well, won't be a disaster but I don't see him as a big star or anything. He can grow into a nice swing man, can score a little, good pick and roll guy. If he can add a consistent 15-20 footer, he could be a useful player. I think he goes #10 to the Bucks.

Of all the guys getting a late push before the draft, I think Wade Baldwin has the highest upside. Smart, strong, good shooter, big kid, I think in the right situation he could really blossom. He's the Justise Winslow of this draft, should be a better scorer sooner. I have going #11 to the Magic but I think he might ought to be higher.

I've yet to be overwhelmed by Jakob Poetl but he's another prospect that stayed in the lottery projections pretty much all year long. He strikes me as a throwback downlow center which seems to be going away in the league, so unless he's a dominant rebounder I'm not sure what he does at the next level. I have him going #12 to the Jazz.

I don't know Deyonta Davis all that well. I was a big fan of his Michigan State teammate Denzel Valentine but while Valentine has dropped on injury concerns, Davis seems steady as a late lottery pick. I have him going #14 to the Bulls.

I just wanted to go over the guys I thought would be the lottery picks but there are a few others that strike me as undervalued: Brice Johnson, Denzel Valentine, Thon Maker, Diamond Stone, Zhou Qi, Isiah Whitehead, AJ Hammons, Wayne Selden and Malcolm Brogdon.

I think Johnson has the widest variance of any 1st round prospect: he could be really great or he could be truly awful (a hard nose defensive version of Michael Beasley, I guess). I think Valentine is going to be great at the next level: big kid, smart, can shoot, good passer, decent playmaker. If he stays healthy I think he can be a really really good player. Maker is a high school kid that no one knows how to value--that caught my attention. Is he the next Hassan Whiteside or the next Andrew Bynum? I dunno, but someone's gonna roll the dice on him. I watched Stone in the last U17 World Cup and I was blown away, that kid could do everything in the lane, not sure why he is more highly touted. If he drops into the 2nd round, someone's gonna get a great value (if the Sixers trade away all their big men, they'd be wise to spend one of those late 1st round picks on Stone). Zhou Qi is a Chinese prospect who looks to be good at everything....and I'm not sure why he isn't more highly rated. The rumors that he's been lying about his age seem to have been debunked. If the Celtics can get him at #35, I think that'd be a great pick. Whitehead impressed me when I saw him with Seton Hall, that kid can ball, he'd be a good pick for the Pelicans with one of their 2nd round picks. Hammons is a boom/bust guy: could be a rock down low for years to come (think what Tristan Thompson just did in the Finals) or he could be a useless malcontent that never really fits in (think Andrew Bynum). For a team that needs size, they should give him a shot. I liked Selden, not a great player, but he could be a reliable role player that does what needs to be done. If he's still around after #50 then I think a lot of scouting departments will be kicking themselves. Brogdon, like Denzel Valentine, is a smart, reliable guy that will be a good player for a good team (he'd be better off not getting drafted and then trying to hook on with the Spurs).