Looks like Trump is comfortably ahead. But wait: this is a Caucus. You don't just hide behind a curtain for 2 minutes and yank levers and whatnot. In a caucus you actually have to go show your face and convince your fellow citizens which megalomaniac used car salesman should be the leader of the free world. How you respond to a poll question over the phone or on-line doesn't indicate that you'll actually show up for the process or that you'll have the stones to make passionate pleas for clowns like Donald Trump (*) once you get there. The flavor of the month might be Fruit Stripe gum long before the big day arrives. And, indeed, Iowa has a solid history of throwing surprises at the last minute. I'm not at all convinced that these poll numbers are really indicative of how it will all turn out.
Republicans
Trump 28%
Cruz 23%
Rubio 15%
Carson 10%
Paul 5%
Christie 3%
Kasich 2%
Fiorina 2%
Bush 2%
Huckabee 2%
Santorum 2%
Donald Trump has pretty well held the lead on the Rep side since late summer. Do the people that say they support Trump actually like the guy? Its not a guarantee. Some people enjoy his brand of tomfoolery well enough during the preliminaries but may have no interest in seeing him become president and bidding up his price right before the market opens doesn't mean his IPO will take off. I don't think it will. I've long thought that Trump doesn't even want to be president and has been waiting for the electorate to get rid of him. But, again, his show entertains people and even his enemies have reason to leave him in the game so--to Trump's great surprise--the people still seem to like his spiel. But the run up to the election has its own momentum and I think Trump is kind of a patsy for the machinations of others. The fact that his popularity has stayed high regardless of his increasingly crazy talk is shocking (perhaps sobering) to those of us that figured he was just a flash in the pan. But I can't help thinking that Monday is the end of his run. I say he gets around 22%, finishes 3rd and limps into New Hampshire.
Ted Cruz has a consistency to him, a natural mode of thought and speaking that makes him a pretty solid Republican. But he's combative, an entitled upstart who has rankled his Congressional colleagues, couldn't win a Governor's race in Texas, doesn't have any particular expertise that would earn him a cabinet post and has no real qualification for political office save a megalomaniac desire to win elections. His ceiling is Vice President, don't you think? Look at the guy, he even LOOKS like a Vice President! I'd say his game is nuzzling up to Trump in order to earn enough unique support to add to Trump from the bottom of the ticket. I think his calculations will surprise even himself. I say he gets 27% and wins Iowa on Monday. His own success will surprise him because if he does surpass Trump, he'll have to turn to the rest of the Republican field and will look less and less like a viable candidate. A win in Iowa could actually throw all of his plans into disarray.
Marco Rubio is the guy the real Republican insiders want. They find Cruz to be an annoying jackass, Trump to be a Democrat accidentally let into the big house and Bush to be...well, a Bush. The real Republican insiders are pleased to have Paul Ryan as Speaker of the House and are itching for Trump and Cruz and Bush to just go away so that we get the Rubio show against Hillary. So far the voters have not bought that script and the insiders are biting their nails in hopes that Rubio pulls it out in Iowa. I think once the caucus gets going Trump will fade and Rubio gets a boost. Not enough to win but enough to propel him on to New Hampshire. Trump is the fly in the ointment, Trump is the one giving Cruz credence. If Rubio can get between those two, he's got a real shot to build support beyond Iowa. I say Rubio gets 22%, finishes 2nd (a dead heat with Trump would be a big victory for Rubio).
Remember Ben Carson? Seems like his 15 minutes were up a coupla months ago though he's had a bit of boost recently. The very public nature of running for office seems like more than that guy could stand. He's got enough to go to New Hampshire but if he pulls less than 10% in both of those races, I suspect he rides off into the sunset. I think Carson gets a minor surge (from folks that want an outsider candidate that isn't Trump) that fades, tops out at 9%.
Rand Paul never really got going this time around. The Trump phenomenon was not something he anticipated, I think he was prepared to present himself as the outsider compared to Bush and Christie and Rubio but Trump sucked up his oxygen, he had nowhere else to go. I'm a little surprised he's still around, sometimes its better to disappear than stick around and be defeated (hey, Bobby Jindal and Tim Pawlenty can come back in the future without a shellacking in Iowa on their resumes). Frankly, Paul was always running against Hillary and never properly settled into the Republican milieu. I think Paul misplayed his hand, didn't correct for the change in conditions, isn't really right for a cabinet post, hasn't raised his stature in the Senate and probably only lowers his chances in New Hampshire by getting drubbed in Iowa. I doubt he gets 5% and the only way he comes back in 2020 is by making himself an even crazier Libertarian-type outsider (which could work if Hillary's the incumbent).
Chris Christie never took off in Iowa but he probably fancies himself a New Hampshire man anyway. If he can stay ahead of Paul and Bush, then that's good enough to re-start him in the next race. Christie definitely has cabinet potential and (I dunno) perhaps this can raise his profile for a run for Congress out of New Jersey. He's got aspirations that go beyond just running for president so I suspect he keeps running until he can align himself with the winner or the party itself or the New Jersey party apparatus. If he gets 7%, he would call that a huge victory and charge hard into New Hampshire. I don't think he gets there but he'll keep going anyway. I say Christie gets 4%.
John Kasich...I dunno who he is. He's governor of Ohio, maybe thinks he can run for Senate or thinks he can get a cabinet post. His ambitions have to be larger than just running for president, so like Christie, if he can top 5% and/or sneak ahead of Paul, he'll pat himself on the back and keep charging until somebody somewhere gives him a job. I'll say he gets 3%.
Carly Fiorina is auditioning for a cabinet post or maybe a Senate run. (Personal aside) Here in Kentucky I continually ponder the future of John Calipari (waaaaaay more important than the President of the USA to me). Cal gets rumored to all sorts of NBA teams and I am convinced none of those (for now) are right for him and he won't leave Kentucky; but, he has to do this dance to keep his profile high enough to get an annual raise and to keep him in line for the job he really wants, which I think is Team USA. Fiorina, likewise, has to do these things to seem vital, to look important and connected. Does she want Barbara Boxer's senate seat? I dunno. Does she want to be Marco Rubio's VP? I dunno. Does she want to be Trump's Labor Secretary? I dunno. Does she want to be the next CEO of Yahoo? I dunno. But she must want something apart from being President of the United States and this run in Iowa is all about keeping her profile high enough to get her another job/post down the line. I doubt we've seen the end of Carly Fiorina but I'd be surprised to see her in Republican debates after New Hampshire. I suspect the 2% of this poll is solidly for her and I think they're not for Trump or Cruz or Rubio or Bush or Christie or Paul, so I reckon she'll keep that 2% but I don't see her support growing.
Jeb Bush is just waiting for the right moment to show off that he's an actual adult amidst a bunch of right wing loud mouths. I lived in Florida when he was originally running for governor and I found him to be quite a strange candidate, certainly not like any Republican I'd ever seen. That was before his bro became president and turned the family name to mud. Jeb doesn't particularly impress me as a candidate but nor does he repel me. Unfortunately for him I think this is the end of his political career. No one wants him for VP and he doesn't seem to be auditioning for a cabinet post, so if he doesn't make it to the Florida primary (March 15) then I don't think we'll ever see that guy again. That said, this leads me to think that he's in it for the long haul: he's got money, he's got a fair amount of campaign infrastructure and he's already picked his fight with fellow Floridian Rubio that'll be tough to back down from. I think he's in it to win it and I think he will hang around through February. So while it would be nice for him to win Iowa, losing isn't necessarily a deterrence to him. Bush gets 4%.
Mike Huckabee is a previous winner of the Iowa Caucus, winning back in 2008. He rode his victory in Iowa to...well, nothing....and then into a show on Fox News. If you can't beat 'em on the campaign trail, get yourself a cable show and keep the mud slinging going year round. Since he won here before, I guess he thought he could win again or at least get high profile enough to score a VP nod (or maybe just get a better time slot on Fox). Huckabee has tried to cozy up to Trump but I don't see how he fits into Trump's puzzle, so I think the next time we see Huckabee in Iowa it'll be as a correspondent for Fox News rather than a candidate. I say Huckabee tops out at 2%. stealing the last of the Santorum crowd.
Rick Santorum is the defending champ in the Iowa Caucus, surprise winner back in 2012. Its true I can't stand any of these guys but I can't help but acknowledge that I loathe Santorum more than the rest and I'm more than a little pleased that the voters of Iowa have not fallen for his insufferable petulance a 2nd time. Whew! Hopefully he'll go back to Pennsylvania and just be a regional disaster instead of a national one. He's too self-obsessed to be a cabinet officer and I don't see this as his return to Congress, so I suspect (and hope) that this is the last we'll see of Santorum. As for his result, I don't guess he tops 1%.
Cruz 27%, Rubio 22%, Trump 22%, Carson 9%, Bush 4%, Christie 4%, Paul 4%, Kasich 3%, Fiorina 2%, Huckabee 2%, Santorum 0%
Poll from Real Clear Politics, Friday, Jan 29:
Democrats
Clinton 48%
Sanders 40%
O'malley 7%
I'll admit: since roughly this time in 2012, I've thought Hillary Clinton would be the next president. When the Republicans couldn't come up with anyone better than Mitt Romney, it seemed to me that Clinton was the obvious choice for 2016. She's faced a surprise challenge from Sanders but I suspect that will only make her stronger in the long run. The Dems and Reps are all backwards at this point: Republicans tend to choose the dullest guy that came in 2nd last time while the Democrats love to chase after rabble rousers with no history. But this time around, the Dems have (seemingly) settled into the rather dull, establishment candidate while the Reps are clutching at weirdos coming out of the woodwork. Yeah, I'll say it: Hillary is a boring candidate and her relative lack of rabble-rousing-ness is surely the underlying problem with her campaign. That said, I think the Left will continue to line up behind her as the first Tuesday of November approaches. I think Clinton supporters will turn out (and Sanders supporters won't), I think she surges to 50% which would look like a massive victory.
Sanders is the fave of lefty college kids who don't know how anything actually works. Sanders's blather is particularly galling to me but everyone thinks he's in touch and forward thinking. (Sanders taps into the irrational belief people have that government actually does stuff when I'm convinced it really only un-does stuff; but that's my personal prejudice) If the kids turn out, Sanders could get up toward 40% but I suspect that doesn't happen and he struggles to get 35%.
O'Malley...I don't know who he is...I'm more familiar guys at the end of the Denver Nuggets bench than I am with the lower level functionaries of the Democratic Party. I assume he's merely here to audition for a cabinet post or just to get some buzz going for the next time around. The conspiracy theory is that Clinton needs O'Malley to siphon support from Sanders, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him bump up to 10%. But higher than that seems virtually impossible.
Clinton 50%, Sanders 35%, O'Malley 9%.
(*) I don't mean to pick on Trump, I don't like any of these people. To me this is all about as interesting as Div. III hockey, I see no one to love or admire here, just a collection of teams I would never spend a minute watching on a Saturday afternoon. But this is my country so I'm supposed to pretend like this stuff matters and the only way I can do so is to handicap the race (despite my ignorance of how these races have gone to this point). The President of the United States is a position of vast responsibility and very little power, can't for the life of me figure out why anyone would want the job (the ultimate dead end job, if you think about it). But every 4 years we manage to belch up plenty of self-aggrandizing exaggerators that need your love. I'd recommend just jerking off and ignoring this nonsense--your government would be a lot better off for it!--but no one ever takes my advice. Oh well.
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