Australian Open

The Australian Open is maybe my favorite tennis event of the year. Unfortunately, on the East Coast its on at 3am making it tough to watch live and tough to stay away from to watch tape delayed; fortunately, I've been putting my insomnia to good use and I got to catch the semifinal matches.

Djokovic over Federer in 4 sets
Man, Federer is only slightly worse than his decade-ago peak when he flat mooshed everyone he played (except for Nadal in Paris). Nadal stepped up his game and Federer went from penceled-in champ of every Grand Slam to quarterfinal-at-best also ran....except that he didn't. Federer is still easily a top 5 player in the world of tennis and he still mooshes most everyone he plays to breeze into the semifinals. Swept Berdych (#6), crushed Goffin (#15), dropped a single set to Dmitrov (#27), Federer is still rolling, man, still beating top ranked talent with ease. But Djokovic is a robot, gets to every ball, as smooth as Federer in his prime with the athleticism of Nadal in his prime. The first two sets went to Djokovic without much effort and it looked like the rout was on. But Federer finally snuck a break in the 3rd and the fans went nuts (tennis fans always love the guy they forgot to love at his peak). But, man, I ain't gonna lie: even when Federer got his break, I still thought Djok would break him back and take the tiebreaker. Fed held on but couldn't get it going in the 4th. Djokovic is the man right now, he doesn't dominate exactly, he wears people down with his grueling intensity. Federer is still mostly untouchable (Wawrinka and Murray can push him but no one else really) but he can't beat Djokovic, who's learned everything about being the best from Federer. Even though Federer probably won't win another major, he's still piling up impressive wins, going deeps in all four slams year after year even after Roddick, Davydenko and Nadal have long since fallen back.

Murray over Raonic in 5
Tennis is a game of inches. The match took almost 4 hours but it all comes down to 3 games: Murray dropped his 1st serve handing the 1st set to Raonic; Raonic had a brain freeze in the 2nd set, which propelled Murray back to form; Raonic lost his cool in the 4th set, which gave the momentum back to Murray. Raonic couldn't make a push in the 5th and Murray put it on him. The other 4 sets were basically a draw. Raonic impressed me but he let Murray get into his head when he challenged a call in the 2nd set, even though he won the call (seemed like he won every replay challenge in this match), Murray complained about Raonic's slow poke challenge and Raonic never quite seemed the same after that. Murray is a solid player but not vastly better than Raonic and if Raonic can keep his head together (always a tall order for tennis players), he should surge up to the top five this season.

I gotta go with Djokovic in the final. Murray's length will keep him in the match but Djok gets to every ball--EVERY ball--and I just don't think Murray has enough to knock him off. Then again, Murray only needs to capitalize on 3 or 4 chances and the Slam is his. I'll say Djokovic in 4 sets.