East
(1) Heat 100-121 Cavs
(2) Heat 112-121 Cavs (didn't watch)
The Cavs are just better than the Heat. I like this Heat roster, I think they'll be much better next year as the new looks coalesces and the Jimmy Butler-tantrums fade into the past. But for now, they're just not as good as the Cavs. I'll take the Heat to win one in Miami. Cavs in 5.
(1) Magic 86-103 Celtics
(2) Magic 100-109 Celtics
The Magic have no offense. Tough squad, a lot of ballers, they play hard and I like the general composition of the roster, but, man, they got nobody to get buckets. I'd give the Magic a gentleman's sweep but I just don't think the scoring to take even a single game.
If I were the Celtics, I'd give Tatum another night off in Game Three and KP the night off in Game Four. Their offense might scuffle a bit, but I doubt the Magic would outscore them in either contest. Celtics in 4.
(1) Pistons 112-123 Knicks
(2) Pistons 100-94 Knicks
The Pistons had Game One in hand when they went into a monumental collapse, the Knicks had a 21-0 run and stole the game. Knicks fan rejoice, NBA nerds comforted that their presumed outcome came to pass but...let's be honest, folks: the Pistons were the better team and the collapse was their own doing. If the Knicks think they deserved to win, I don't think I agree. And if they think they are the better team, I'm positive I don't agree.
Game Two was much closer to what I think this series is and will be: the Pistons controlled the tempo, scored at will, flustered the Knicks at the defensive end and basically showed how smoke-and-mirrors the Knicks have been all year long. The Pistons are getting hot at the right time and I think the Knicks are riding for a fall.
Its still even enough that it'll go back and forth for a while, but the Pistons are the better team, the more complete team, the team that knows who they are, the team on the rise. Knicks fans are staring down the barrel of a major disappointment. It's happening. Pistons in 6.
(1) Bucks 98-117 Pacers
(2) Bucks 115-123 Pacers (didn't watch)
The Pacers are better than the Bucks. They just are. They're deeper, they're more variable, they've got more scoring, probably even better defense. The Bucks have Giannis but they don't have much else. I like the Bucks to steal one, maybe even two back in Milwaukee--and even then, only if Dame Lillard can really be big time. I'll take Pacers in 5.
West
(1) Grizzlies 80-131 Thunder
(2) Grizzlies 99-118 Thunder
Jeez, that first game was depressing. Out of respect for the Grizzlies organization, I think I'll be skipping the rest of this series. The Thunder are really good, the Grizzlies are in disarray--there's no way this goes 5 games! Thunder in 4 (do we really need two more of these games? I'm ready to say Thunder in 2).
(1) Warriors 95-85 Rockets
(2) Warriors 94-109 Rockets
Game One of this series was the only one that gave me pause. I thought the Rockets were primed to stomp the shit out of the Warriors, but instantly I saw that these youngsters probably aren't ready to play cohesive winning ball over a bunch of badass oldheads just yet. These two played a coupla weeks ago and the Rockets tooled them, made me feel that the Rockets truly were the better team, the better athletes, the harder workers and that their 2nd place finish was not a fluke. But all it takes is one game of Steph Curry calmly controlling the action and getting his shots while Rockets go whizzing past to make me reevaluate what I thought I knew.
Adding Jimmy Butler gave the Warriors a new life, a new purpose, and that's super. But I wasn't convinced that they were ready to win it all (of that I am still not convinced). The Rockets are upstarts but they're long, athletic and they bust their asses, and those qualities are still much more impressive to me. They don't have the savvy to simply dismiss a pack of crafty veterans but if Draymond thinks riling up their youth is a good strategy....oh, I don't think agree.
My initial thought was Rockets in 5: they'd dominate the first two games, fall asleep back in SF, then pull it together again and just athleticism their way to two more quick wins. I still think the Rockets win this and the plan is still in place, but I think the Warriors are more savvy than I gave them credit for and are going to will this Rockets squad into a smarter crew (for example, I think the Rockets will be smart enough to not let this go a Game Seven). I'll say Rockets in 6.
(1) Wolves 117-95 Lakers
(2) Wolves 85-94 Lakers
My initial thought was that these two are actually pretty evenly matched, this will be a tussle of a series and I was gonna go with Lakers in 7 because...well, they're the Lakers, they have all the luck that Uncle Sam can muster.
I think I still that. The Lakers with 2 months of Luka and just a single full season with Coach Reddick haven't matured just yet, they've got a lot of talent but they're still rough around the edges and they haven't congealed around Luka enough to be truly dangerous (yet). It is possible that they grow into their dangerous selves over the next few weeks but I suspect it'll take a full year for them to be truly ready (so....next year, Laker fans).
As for the Wolves, they're good but strangely disappointing and yet it feels like they're coming together at the right time. The way they dominated Game One was intriguing and the weird adjustments the Lakers made to take back Game Two suggest that the Lakers know the Wolves are better. But the Wolves were confused by weird zone defense looks and probably a little satisfied with the victory in Game One, so they let Game Two get away from them.
I do think the Wolves are the better team and they should win. But I'll stick with Lakers in 7 because they're the Lakers and they'll figure it out.
(1) Clippers 110-112 (OT) Nuggets
(2) Clippers 105-102 Nuggets
I thought the Nuggets got lucky in Game One. They were able to sneak back into it late by forcing James Harden to be a closer (he is not a closer) and reminding Kawhi that he is rusty and not ready to be a closer yet either. And then they got lucky knocking down shots in OT. But it was clear to me: the Clippers are the better team and should be up 2-0 heading back to LA.
Worth repeating, though: Harden is not a closer and Kawhi is probably not ready to do much swashbuckling in the 4th quarter. The key for the Clippers is to build big leads and hold them. Frankly, I think they can and I think they will. Great as Jokic is, he can't do it alone and increasingly he looks more and more alone out there.
Nuggets in 6
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