The Bucks finished off the Hawks after Trae Young was hobbled by an ankle injury (thought he moved well and made plays in Game Six but he couldn't score at his usual level and that was the end of that). The Suns finished off the Clippers after it became clear that Kawhi Leonard was not coming back (Paul George was masterful, but missed FTs in Game Two and a weird scoring drought in Game Four was the end of the Clippers).
I gotta say I was skeptical of the off-season moves these two teams made last summer. The Suns picking up Chris Paul just felt like CP's next move, not something the Suns were doing to make a big difference. The Bucks paid a massive amount to bring in Jrue Holiday, a guy that I always thought was a nice but probably overrated because of his injury history; my thought at the time was why not pay half as much for Denis Shroder to perform the same job? Well, clearly I was wrong about Paul, he is without a doubt the reason the Suns are here; and Holiday goes a long way to making the Bucks a deeper, more reliable squad. So, belatedly I gotta say: these were the two best moves of last summer, right?
In Game One, Giannis played despite fears that he'd be out (*) but he looked strong, if not terribly decisive. What jumped out at me early on was the way the Bucks were switching Brook Lopez; the danger there was not how he marks Chris Paul and/or Devin Booker, but that switching him high takes him away from Deandre Ayton and that's not gonna work. You can't have Jrue Holiday or PJ Tucker marking Ayton down low, that has to be Lopez. So I'd be surprised to see the Bucks doing that high switch going forward. I think they'll slip into a zone-type D with Tucker chasing Booker and Holiday marking Paul. We'll see.
Paul was magnificent in the 3rd quarter of Game One and that was the difference in the game. Also, the way he kept finding Ayton rotating to the basket just piled on the lead. Man, I've been so blown away by Ayton this post-season, he's been phenomenal and gives the Suns a whole new dynamic that they didn't have all year long. I thought Cam Johnson was great, too. Booker was fine, the fact that he didn't have to take over is where the Suns are at their best (when Booker goes for a quiet 25, that's when the Suns destroy people). Crowder wasn't great but defensively he put in good work and he's still a necessary part of this squad. Mikeal Bridges played hard and is a good looking rotation guy. Dario Saric got hurt which isn't a killer except that it suggests they'll be needing more minutes of Frank Kaminsky, which is not a good thing. The Suns are in a good rhythm, they know who they are and I think they're a good bet to win 3 of the next 6 games.
The Bucks started off okay but lost their way early in the 3rd quarter and it highlighted exactly what their problem is: their offense bogs down from time to time and they lose their flow. The makeup of their Big 3 is awkward: Giannis seems like "the guy" but he's such a unique attacker that its hard to build around him, Middleton is a filler-upper but not enough of a playmaker and Holiday is too spotty a shooter to be a CP-type ball control guy. Don't get wrong, there's loads of talent there and they can still win the Championship. But when they start spinning their wheels, there's no clear way to get back on track. Indeed, cranking up their defensive intensity is probably their best way to get offense and that might be their be strategy.
The Suns are probably the better team but they're definitely the more cohesive team. The Bucks need to find their defensive identity (Lopez needs to mark Ayton, Holiday needs to clamp down Paul, otherwise a zone-ish defense would give them a rebounding edge) and they need to make FTs. Can they do it? Ehh, I still think they push the Suns to seven games but you gotta like CP and Booker locking it down at home.
My pick was Suns in 7 and after watching Game One, I'll stick with that.
(*) Look, that hyper extended knee moment Giannis had in Game Four against the Hawks looked awful but there's two ways to look at: 1) on the one hand, what you saw lasted a half a second, not that big a deal; 2) on the other hand, Giannis is a 7' 300 pound man and perhaps it only takes a half a second to end his career. I was never worried, that kinda stuff happens all the time, it feels weird--and it could be dangerous--but generally it's not a thing and bad ass athletes just move on.
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