2019-20 NFL (Wild Card Round)

Bills @ Texans (-2.5)(o/u 43.5)
Two similar teams: good defensive squads with unpredictable QBs. Seems to me like the Texans QB (Deshaun Watson) is the better of the two QBs, while the Bills D is the better of the two defenses. So how does this strength on strength match work? I'm gonna take the home team to make a coupla more plays than the road team, that is I'm expecting Watson to make more big plays than Josh Allen. The Texans have frankly never been as good as it seems like they should be, the Bills are getting to a good place (but another year of deteriorating Pats is the Bills' best bet). This game could come down to turnovers, I could see this being a sloppy contest. I'll take the Texans 20-10 (Texans and the under).


Titans @ Pats (-4.5)(o/u 44.5)
The Titans run the ball well, don't make dumb mistakes (well, since they bench Marcus Mariota) and they have a strong Belichick pedigree, which pretty much makes them the perfect team to shock the Pats on their home field in the playoffs. The Pats D is good but that offense is not classic Pats, if the Titans pass rush can get to Brady then they could be stopped. I don't see this as high scoring game, could be a real slog of a contest. I think this'll be a tough game for Pats fans but I think they pull it out late.  I'll take the Pats 20-17 (Titans and the under).


Vikings @ Saints (-8)(o/u 49.5)
(Hmm...I don't think I saw the Vikings all year long...is that possible?) The Vikings are a good--not great--team and in the playoffs those are the teams I would typically bet on: solid O-line, solid D-line, QB that doesn't make mistakes, defensive backs that make the right play (if not the big play). But the Saints are the Saints, man: big offense, gonna be slinging it around and gonna be trying to make plays on defense (at which I think they'll be successful enough). I like the steady Vikings but I just don't think they've got enough to hang with the Saints at home. The Vikings' best bet is if the Saints are sloppy, muffing plays or turning the ball over (in which case I could totally see the Vikings stealing this).  I think it's close but I gotta go with the Saints at home, Saints 27-21 (Vikings and the under). 


Seahawks (-1.5) @ Eagles (o/u 45)
I always get the Seahawks wrong, I always underestimate what the combo of a good QB/good coach can achieve. But the Seahawks have actually looked more shaky than sturdy this season and I'm a little surprised they're going on the road as a favorite--even against the frustratingly disappointing Eagles. I like the Eagles to play their best game and punch the Seahawks in the mouth. Tough to take struggling Carson Wentz over the always-reliable Russell Wilson, but I just think the Eagles will have a few tricks up their sleeve that the Seahawks don't have. I'll say Eagles 17-16 (Eagles and the under).