2019-20 NFL Over/Unders

Ahhhhh....football.

Here's my methodology for the last few years: before the season I pick a winner for each of the 256 regular season games (straight up, no spreads). Last year I did much better picking pre-season winners (153-101-2) than I did picking in-season games against the spread (108-144-4--ouch!). Not sure why, probably just a weird fluke and this season should swing back the other way (right?).  Doing this exercise produced some results I think others would find weird (I did, others probably would, too), but it is what it is. Curious to see how these predictions hold up.


AFC EAST
(11.5) Pats (11-5) (under)
(4.5) Dolphins (7-9) (over)
(7.5) Bills (6-10) (under)
(7.5) Jets (3-13) (under)
Hot take: I think this is Tom Brady's last year (with the Pats, anyway). I think the Belichik-Brady years finished with another division win and a run into the playoffs (eh, I don't see them going as far as usual this year). 2nd hot take: The Pats trade for Jimmy Garoppolo on Draft Day 2020.
Everyone is expecting the Dolphins to suck and they may be right but I still don't see that division as anything too hard for the Dolphins. And just because the GM wants to lose doesn't mean the players do.
I have the Bills falling just a bit short (again) of their usual 8-8. The O-line is still a problem, the skill players don't look any better than last year and the QB is still a question mark (though a more optimistic one than they've had in eons). The Bills will be the regular ol' Bills (but once Brady's gone, they could be poised to finally be good next year).
The Jets, man, are the Jets. The belief that they've solved their problems is as misguided as ever.


AFC NORTH
(8) Ravens (13-3) (over)
(5.5) Bengals (10-6) (over)
(9) Steelers (10-6) (over)
(9) Browns (7-9) (under)
I like the Ravens this year. They know who they are on defense and if Lamar Jackson has a good year, this team could be really good.
Yeah, here we go: I got the Bengals winning 10 games and making the playoffs. Why? I dunno. I ran through the games and just figured the Bengals would win more than they lose. I'm probably way off on this, we'll see.
Steelers feel like they're trudging to the finish. Feels like Ben is just about done, I can even see Coach Tomlin moving on. This team needs a shot in the arm, not sure where it comes from.
The Browns are overrated. I get it, the team that finished well last year is the team everyone expects to take off the next year. But I think the Browns have one more year of floundering before they'll be ready to take off.


AFC SOUTH
(8) Texans (9-7) (over)
(7.5) Jags (8-8) (over)
(7.5) Titans (7-9) (under)
(9.5) Colts (2-14) (under)
I dunno....the Texans? I'm not in on any of these teams, feels like the Texans should have the best defense (yeah, feels like that every year) and they do have a potential superstar QB (he played all last season, so why didn't they take off then?), so they have the goods to make a move in this division. Are they gonna do it? I dunno....is someone else gonna do it?
The Jags are the team that could be wildly better than we think. They had a weird good run two years ago then disappeared last season, could be a reappearance year for the Jags. That said, I'm not banking on it (I just think it could happen).
The Titans are the classic 8-8 kinda squad, I don't see them overachieving but I don't see them totally bottoming out, either.
I was not as high as everyone else on the Colts before Andrew Luck checked out and while I've actually been reasonably impressed by Jacoby Brissett, I think the Colts O-line is gonna struggle and that defense is not good enough to carry a weak offense. I think the coach is on the hot seat, the fans revolt, I can see this team unraveling badly this year.


AFC WEST
(10.5) Chiefs (14-2) (over)
(10) Chargers (10-6) (push)
(7) Broncos (4-12) (under)
(6) Raiders (4-12) (under)
I'm kinda stunned that the over/under for the Chiefs is 10.5...10.5? Dang, they're gonna have ten wins by the end of September! Okay, not possible, but I'm all in, these guys are the real deal, they will take all comers in the AFC.
The Chargers are still good enough to hang around and steal games again. The D is pretty good and Rivers is still Rivers, so I expect them to get W's.
I think the Broncos'll suck. Feels like they'll be rebuilding their defense and offense at the same time, which is a tough way to go.
The Raiders will suck, too. I think Coach Gruden will bungle through this year, then make a serious run at being good next year (and likely fail) and then head back to ESPN.



NFC EAST
(10.5) Eagles (11-5) (over)
(9) Cowboys (10-6) (over)
(6.5) Redskins (7-9) (over)
(6) Giants (4-12) (under)
I see the Eagles bouncing back and having a good year. Feels like Wentz is ready for a bust-out season and the Eagles are still good on both sides of the ball.
I think the Cowboys will be pretty good but not good enough.
I was surprised how many W's I had the Redskins getting, just seems like they ought to be worse than this.
The Giants will keep trying to work Eli Manning, it will keep not working, then they'll reach for the rookie QB (which also won't work). I actually have three teams worse than the Giants but these guys feel like a good candidate for #1 pick.


NFC NORTH
(9) Bears (11-5)
(9) Vikings (10-6)
(9) Packers (9-7)
(7) Lions (6-10)
I just got a feeling about the Bears. I like that D, I think Trubisky is ready to level up again, I think they're the best in a tough division.
The Vikings had their shot last year and they didn't show up. Yeah, I got 'em winning 10 games but I don't have 'em in the playoffs.
The Packers could be wildly different from my pre-season pick: I can see them going nuts and being good or going nuts and being terrible. We'll see.
I don't hate this Lions team but I don't have high hopes either. That said, winning 6 games wouldn't be bad for Detroit.


NFC SOUTH
(10) Saints (12-4)
(8) Panthers (10-6)
(5.5) Falcons (9-7)
(6.5) Bucs (5-11)
The Saints worry me: I have them winning 12 games and cruising through that division but I can see them taking a big step backward, too. I'll stick with them to keep it going but when the wheels come off this team, it'll make for an ugly crash.
I got the Panthers in the playoffs...not sure why.
I'm a little surprised their o/u was so low, this team was built to go 8-8, don't ya think?
I'm not in on the Bucs, man, you can have them.


NFC WEST
(10) Rams (13-3)
(8.5) Seahawks (6-10)
(5.5) Cards (5-11)
(8.5) Niners (3-13)
Rams are ready to bust out, last year was just a taste, I think the Rams (along with the Chiefs) will be the buzz team this season.
I'm surprised I had the Seahawks winning as many as 6 games because they rely much too much on Russell Wilson pulling it out of the fire and I just don't think that's a winning strategy. But I don't care for the rest of the division, so that helps them a lot.
The Cards are just built to be terrible this year (rookie QB, rookie coach, over-priced defense) so winning 5 games actually feels like a great season for them.
Some are saying the Niners are ready to take over but I already hot-taked my belief that Jimmy G heads back to New England next summer and I think that comes from a disappointing, injury-filled season with San Fran.


Playoffs
Pats over Bengals; Chargers over Texans
Bears over Cowboys; Eagles over Panthers

Ravens over Pats; Chiefs over Chargers
Eagles over Rams; Saints over Bears

Chiefs over Ravens
Eagles over Saints

Chiefs over Eagles