2018-19 NBA Finals (Game Six)

So far...
Bucks over Pistons (4)/Warriors over Clippers (6)
Raptors over Magic (5)/Nuggets over Spurs (7)
Sixers over Nets (5)/Blazers over Thunder (5)
Celtics over Pacers (4)/Rockets over Jazz (5)

Bucks over Celtics (5)/Warriors over Rockets (6)
Raptors over Sixers (7)/Blazers over Nuggets (7)

Raptors over Bucks (6)/Warriors over Blazers (4)

Then...

Warriors 109-118 Raptors
The Warriors were okay, the Raptors were really good, got big offense from Siakam and Gasol to cover up that Kawhi was actually pretty mediocre for the first three quarters. Good win for the Raptors at home, as I predicted. Some people were so amazed by this result and were quickly selling their Warriors stock, suggesting the dynasty was already over. But why? Shit, man, the Warriors had a long lay off (after dusting off the Blazers) to ponder how to get by without Durant, while the Raptors were starting their first Finals appearance at home after finding themselves in a tough series over the Bucks, arguably the best team in the league. This result was not a shock to me.

Warriors 109-104 Raptors
Warriors bounce back, control the offense, played good defense, got good minutes out of Cousins (good not great, let's relax on his performance) and generally looked like the team that swept the Blazers. The Raptors were not bad, Kawhi was actually pretty good, but the supporting cast didn't shine out big like the game before, so the Warriors were able to build and keep the lead. Again, to me, this was not unexpected: I thought they'd be split after two games, I kinda figured the Raptors would strike first and then the Warriors would strike back, and go on a run...

Raptors 123-109 Warriors
...Expect that the run did not happen. (At least not yet) Klay came up gimpy after Game Two (worth recalling that Iguodala came up gimpy after Game One) and Kevon Looney was announced injured and out for the season. Curry was amazing (47/8/7) but without Klay, the Warriors didn't have enough scoring and were never in this game. The Raptors controlled the tempo from beginning to end, everyone played well, not a dominant performance but a consistent and convincing one.

Raptors 105-92 Warriors
Klay returned and was great, Looney also returned and was fine, but even still the Raptors controlled the ball throughout and the Warriors just could not generate enough offense to get into the game. In the 3rd quarter, Curry went cold, Kawhi got hot and that was pretty much it. The Raptors were crisp and confident throughout. All signs pointing to the Raptors finishing it in the next game.

Warriors 106-105 Raptors
Durant returned and was great...until early in the 2nd quarter when he got hurt again (re-injured his achilles or newly injured his achilles?) and did not return; he only played a few minutes but he was very effective and gave the squad a huge lift. The Warriors held control until late in the 4th quarter, when the Raptors had an offensive flurry and took a 6 point lead with three minutes to go. Suddenly the Raptors went cold, there were a bunch of weird plays from both sides (were you expecting a sloppy over-and-back in the last two minutes of a Finals game?), and the Warriors are still alive. They're depleted but they have announced that they can still win...though Durant and Looney are now officially gone, Cousins was already injured, and Klay and Iguodala have both suffered, as well.

So what happens now?

I say the Raptors win Game Six. A weird wrinkle I hadn't previously considered: both these teams are better on the road. The Warriors were outmanned and abysmal in Games Three and Four, the Raptors were sluggish and sloppy in Games Two and Five. The Raptors fanbase is loud, crazy and obsessed; the Warriors fanbase is grumpy and fickle. I think the Raptors will steel themselves, play their good spread-it-around offense, keep Draymond and Klay in check on the other end and pile on points as the fans file for the exits. I think there's something nerve-wracking about playing in front of your own fans, while being on the road can really bring a team together.

Kawhi is never awful and is pretty much always a great defender but his offense has been a bit spotty, I expect him to be better in Golden State. The infusion of Western conference players (Gasol, Green, Ibaka) has brought the Raptors plenty of confidence on the Warriors floor. I expect Siakam, Van Vleet and Lowry to be aggressive throughout and I would expect Anunoby (probably won't play if Durant isn't in there), Powell and McCaw to make the most of any time they see. I think the Raptors are capable of playing their best game.

Meanwhile, Draymond has been the MVP, Curry has been the other MVP (that one that will get the votes), Klay has been great when available, Iguodala is giving his all....but that's about it. Durant and Looney are both officially not gonna play again this season. Cousins has reminded me of Gronkowski out there: he's still big enough and smart enough to be effective at times, he can still make the right play here and there, but mostly he looks like he's lugging a pullout couch up a flight of stairs; I don't think the Warriors can rely in any way on him having a big game. Livingston has not been a negative but he hasn't been much of a positive either, I don't see how his contribution could raise the level of the team at this point. McKinnie has had nice moments but not enough to make up for the loss of Durant. Bogut is officially shot (*). Jerebko, Bell and Jones have not fared well at all. Curry and Klay and Draymond and Iguodala will have to be absolutely perfect on both ends of the floor and I just don't see how they do it.

The return of Kevin Durant was set up to be a painful gimmick from the beginning. I certainly hope this doesn't do damage to his career but we already know he'll be missing most of next season wherever he plays, so there's nothing good about this for him. He's an athlete, he wanted to play, the team wanted him to play, he tried to play and didn't work in his favor, that's a shame but the blame goes to everyone. It was enough, though, to get the Warriors over the hump in Game Five--even his limited production was better than what McKinnie was gonna do and they held the lead for most of that game. So where do the Warriors get that from in Game Six? The fans? I ain't seeing it. I think the Raptors play a great game and the Warriors look like they're running in sand. Raptors in 6.


(* Do you realize he won the DPOY in the Australian League....this year? He is the reigning DPOY and MVP of the Australian League...man, that don't reflect all that well on the Australian League, does it?)