2018-19 NBA Playoffs (2nd Round)

(Bucks in 4; I said Bucks in 4)
Pistons 86-121 Bucks

Pistons 99-120 Bucks

Bucks 119-103 Pistons

Bucks 127-104 Pistons

There was no way--NO WAY--the Pistons were going to beat the Bucks anyway, but without Blake Griffin for 3 games (and then a weird hobbling shell of him for the 4th), there was no way the Pistons were even going to have a moment of looking like they could win a game.  None of these games were close and that was as good as it was ever gonna get for the Pistons. The Pistons are an okay team, they're an 8th place in the East kinda team and I wouldn't be surprised to see them between 7th-9th next year, too. 

(Raptors in 5; I said Raptors in 4)

Magic 104-101 Raptors

Magic 82-111 Raptors

Raptors 98-93 Magic

Raptors 107-85 Magic

Magic 96-115 Raptors

DJ Augustin! Man, he was phenomenal in Game One! And I gotta say for one game the Magic did look pretty good: road-block defense that really fustigated the Raptors and good ball movement leading to good shots on the other end. But...that was pretty much it. Once Kyle Lowry got back to being better than DJ Augustin, the Raptors rolled with ease. There was a hot second of worry in Toronto but that didn't really last long. I was more impressed in general with the Magic than I expected to be, they're gutty, good team defense, play hard, but just don't have the depth or star power to be a higher up team in the East; but I think they're improvement was legit and I think they can continue to be better than the Hornets, Heat, Pistons, etc., next year.


(Sixers in 5; I said Sixers in 5)
Nets 111-102 Sixers
Nets 123-145 Sixers
Sixers 131-115 Nets
Sixers 112-108 Nets
Nets 100-122 Sixers
This series showed us the high and low of the Sixers: Game One was a lot of standing around waiting for someone else to get it done and sloppy defense in the face of a scrappy team that has nothing to lose. But Game Two was the exact opposite: tough team defense and everyone contributed on offense and that's when the Sixers are at their best. I still want to see the Sixers do this a little more consistently before I'm ready to think they'll go deeper, but they've got the talent to do damage. The Nets are a spunky little team, came up well this year, if they can draft well and make a nice move or two in the summer, they might be ready to move up (say, if Kawhi splits, if Kyrie splits, if the Sixers strike out, or if someone gets hurt) next year.


(Celtics in 4; I said Celtics in 7)
Pacers 74-84 Celtics
Pacers 91-99 Celtics
Celtics 104-96 Pacers
Celtics 110-106 Pacers
I thought the Celtics would win but I thought the Pacers would push them, force the Celtics to man up and be as goo as they're supposed to be. Well, credit the Celtics for not waiting for tragedy and coming in ready to play in Game One. The Pacers have played well since Oladipo went down and I thought they could continue that intensity against a waffling Celtics side, but the deficiencies finally caught up to them and the Celtics took advantage. The Pacers are still in good position to be in the top five in the East next year and they've got moves to make, I can see them leapfrogging toward the top.


(Warriors in 6; I said Warriors in 4)
Clippers 104-121 Warriors
Clippers 135-131 Warriors
Warriors 132-105 Clippers
Warriors 113-105 Clippers
Clippers 129-121 Warriors
Warriors 129-110 Clippers
Bwa-ha! The Warriors had to play six games to get past the Clippers...something about that just makes me giggle. The Clippers were strangely good this year and when they recognize that they've got nothing else to do but play hard, they're not a bad team. The Warriors seemed to forget that in this series. They built up the big lead in Game Two (yeah, even I stopped watching) and then just sat there stunned while the Clippers came back and took the game. And in Game Five, the Warriors had one of those moments where all the stars kept waiting for someone else to do all the scoring (also, where was Steph in the last 5 minutes? Everyone's chucking up desperation 3's and no one's giving Curry the ball? WTF?) and then they took the lead back near the end...and than promptly stopped playing, allowing the Clippers to steal another one. The Warriors have a Federer-like tendency to occasionally zone out and give up points when it seems like they ought to be crushing and the Clippers have a tendency to just be a thorn in the side of superior foes, in this case it turned an easy sweep into a 6-game slugfest. Oh well, the Warriors are still really good. The Clippers had a great season and have a lot of room to make moves this summer--they could be really good really fast next year.


(Nuggets in 7; I said Nuggets in 6)
Spurs 101-96 Nuggets
Spurs 105-114 Nuggets
Nuggets 108-118 Spurs
Nuggets 117-103 Spurs
Spurs 108-90 Nuggets
Nuggets 103-120 Spurs
Spurs 86-90 Nuggets
The dynamic at work here is that the Nuggets are a young team that have good talent but aren't really sure what they're doing and that the Spurs are a veteran squad loaded with savvy but maybe a step slower on the court. That played out in both teams stealing games they should've lost/dropping games they should've won. I think the Nuggets were the better team and deserved to win but the Spurs pushed them hard because they've got the smarts to hang....until the end of Game Seven....when the veteran Spurs stood around and watched the clock run out instead of....well....anything would've been better than just standing there powerless. Weird finish for the Spurs but I expect them to be good again next year because they're the Spurs (but the Mavs, Grizzlies and Lakers will be coming and the Clippers might much better).


(Blazers in 5; I said Blazers in 7)
Thunder 99-104 Blazers
Thunder 94-114 Blazers
Blazers 108-120 Thunder
Blazers 111-98 Thunder
Thunder 115-118 Blazers
I thought this was a classic 'home team wins every game' series and it stayed that way until the Blazers took over the series by winning Game Four and from there you just knew OKC was gonna flounder. The Blazers looked good, they know who they are (re: Lillard and his supporting cast) and they play their roles effectively. This is not a great team but they stick together, they've got good depth and when Lillard is unstoppable mode, they can win games they're not supposed to. The Thunder should be better than they are--should be better than the Blazers--but OKC has never been comfortable just being Westbrook's sidekicks. Not sure where the Thunder goes this off-season, feels like its time to make some major moves.


(Rockets in 5; I said Rockets in 5)
Jazz 90-122 Rockets
Jazz 98-118 Rockets
Rockets 104-101 Jazz
Rockets 91-107 Jazz
Jazz 93-100 Rockets
Yeah, the gentleman's sweep was what was supposed to happen. The Rockets have too much scoring, the Jazz don't have enough. The Jazz are still on the proper path: they're getting better coalescing around Donovan Mitchell and I think Coach Snyder is still a good fit for what they're trying to do. But to go deeper in the post-season, they need another big time scorer.


(I was traveling for most of April and was unable to update the blog. Each semi series has already played two games, I'll try to be as objective as I can)

Celtics 112-90 Bucks
Celtics 102-123 Bucks
The Celtics stung the Bucks in Game One, wresting control of the series right away after quickly dispatching the Pacers in a manner I didn't think them capable of. But I'm not sure there was anything from Game One that they'll be able to replicate from here on out, so I think there is a slim chance that the Celtics have peaked and might be done. I think the main takeaway from the first game was that Giannis was not getting calls he expected, which changed his attacking style, which warped the way his supporting cast goes about their jobs, which culminated in a full-on thumping. Okay, there's the model: frustrate Giannis and the rest of the team falls apart. Except that it wasn't the Celtics that accomplished this, it was the refs. And I think that was just a fluke. So while the Celtics picked a great time to go on a 5-game winning streak and look much better, much more fluid than at any time during the regular season, I still think the Bucks will move on. I'll stick with Bucks in 7.


Sixers 95-108 Raptors
Sixers 94-89 Raptors
This is an interesting match: the Raptors have been good for a while now but they've made major changes this year and have never really had much success in the post-season; while the Sixers have sucked forever, finally put together their core, remolded the supporting cast around them and are ready to move forward...except that they're still weirdly put together and don't have a clear path to success. If this was pure talent, I'd go Sixers. But when you factor in the intangibles, the Raptors are a deeper, richer squad and should have plenty enough to get past the Sixers. That said, the Raptors do go cold from time to time while the Sixers get hot from time to time, if those periods overlap, the Sixers could do some damage. But I think the Raptors are stable enough to avoid long stretches of zilch, whereas I still think the Sixers are a year away. I'll stick with Raptors in 6.


Rockets 100-104 Warriors
Rockets 109-115 Warriors
Isn't it interesting that the Rockets are the only team to fail to steal a W on the road in the first two games? Much is being made about the officiating but that's all a red herring, these are arguably the two best teams in the league and its going to take a supreme effort (and some luck) to escape this series. This the Harden v Durant show...I'll take Durant. I think he's more reliable, more fun, inspires more from his teammates and has more variety to his ability to score. Don't get me wrong: this series isn't over, the Rockets are gonna be tough to beat at home. But the Warriors have been here before, the Rockets are still new to this. I'll take Warriors in 7.


Blazers 113-121 Nuggets
Blazers 97-90 Nuggets
Quite simply: I think the Blazers are ready to take a step up and I don't think the Nuggets are. I think Lillard can control a game and make the most of his teammates better than Jokic can (for now). The Nuggets are too reliant on Jamal Murray: when he scores they win, when he doesn't they lose. I just don't see him rising up 4 times out of 7 against this Blazer team. The Blazers on the other hand just need to play their game, be consistent and they should win. I'll take Blazers in 6.