2018-19 Super Bowl

NFC Conference Championship
Rams 26-23 (OT) Saints
Yes, this game will be remembered for the missed pass interference call near the Saints goal line around the 2 minute mark. But there were two other missed interference calls that people seem less pissed about: Saints on 3rd down early in the 4th quarter got jobbed on a missed call and the interception in OT was also interference (Brees got hit but the ball wasn't touched and no ref suggested that it was), which one was the worst? That said, the Saints also struggled to get FG's on their first two drives when they should've done better and with 5 minutes or so to go in the game they started inside their 50-yard line and went backwards instead of finishing off the game. So its not like the Saints offense machine was in perfect working order on this day. And I would submit that the Rams didn't have their best day either, so for the Saints to let this one get away from them is truly their own fault (though the refs will be the ones remembered). The Saints will still be good next year but considering their playoff performances of the last two years (and the fact that the Falcons and Panthers should be due for bounce-back seasons next year), its hard to imagine they come out of the NFC any time soon.


AFC Conference Championship
Pats 37-31 (OT) Chiefs
Weird game. The Chiefs did nothing--absolutely nothing!--in the 1st half and still should've won the game. Pats played a flawless opening half (minus an improbable Brady interception in the end zone, but even that was still a brilliant time-killing drive), and still had to scramble to stay in the game late. And even with the Chiefs' offensive dominance in the 2nd half, I still thought they left points on the table: dude, run Kelce one way, Hill the other, throw wherever the safety doesn't go--they could've done that all day. Passing to the RB's out of the backfield was another option they didn't figure out til too late. The Pats played well, not a surprise, but Brady threw two interceptions (a third was negated on an amazingly bone-headed defensive penalty) and the Pats D was seriously back-pedaling all through the 2nd half. But they won the toss in OT, never let Mahomes touch the ball and that was all it took. The Chiefs let this one get away from them, but they'll be back next year.


Super Bowl
Pats (-2.5) @ Rams (o/u 56.5)
This is as hard to figure as any game I've seen in a while. It feels like both teams have improbably overachieved to get to this point. The Pats are here every year, sure, but that doesn't mean the trophy automatically belongs to them; the Rams are here because they have solid talent all over the field but not much depth or ability to mix/match game plans. If the Rams play their best game, I think they'll win; but if they don't, I don't see how they recover and they could get ground up quickly. This game will be all about the lines: if the Pats O-line dominates, then the Pats will control the ball and run the clock; if the Rams O-line dominates, they'll pile on points and control the momentum. I feel like the Pats play better fast but here they'll need to play slow; the Rams play better when the offense is wide open but Belichik won't let them have everything.

The Pats are most susceptible to a strong pass rush and I'm betting the Rams D-line has success in slowing down the run and getting to Brady. As long as the Rams don't turn the ball over, I think they'll score consistently and keep the Pats off the ball. One quick prediction: the Pats are notorious for starting slow in Super Bowls but I bet they take the opening kick and start with a TD drive. But the Rams probably need to get punched in the face to get going, so even though I like the Pats to start fast, I think that ultimately works in the Rams' favor. I don't think the Rams will make the mistakes that the Falcons and Seahawks made, I think the Rams will be able to gain the lead and hold it.

I've been pretty awful picking games this post-season but I gotta take someone to win, so I'll take the Rams 30-24 (Rams and the under).