2018-19 NFL (Conference Championships)

Last week

Colts 13-30 Chiefs
I was surprised how ineffective the Colts offense was--or perhaps I was surprised how good the Chiefs D-line was. The game was dangerously close to over near halftime when the Colts finally got on the board with a blocked punt returned for a TD (nice recovery!), felt like maybe we'd get a game. But this just seemed to anger the Chiefs, who charged right down the field and went up 24-7.The Colts finally got some offense, went down the field, Luck looked good in the 2-minute offense...then Vinatieri missed a 23 yard FG (for the first time in his career) and, yeah, that was it. This felt like a statement game for Andy Reid: he's been a coach's coach for decades but now he's finally got the badass QB to make the dream a reality. The Colts are well set up for next year, they overachieved this season, tough finish but a good ride.

Cowboys 22-30 Rams
This was either going to be a Rams blowout or a Cowboys defensive exhibition. Kinda started off like the latter: first two Rams drives yielded FGs, the first Cowboy drive yielded a whipsmart Dak-to-Amari TD, road dog up 7-6 early, felt like something interesting was afoot. Nah, it turned back to the Rams blowout version by halftime. The Rams' running game was on point--a new look or just got lucky with a backup plan? Up to the Saints to find out now. The Cowboys had a good season, much better than I thought they'd be, looking good for next year...right? (Eagles on the way up, Giants can't be as bad next year, and this year's success may have doomed the Cowboys to give big raises to dudes that just got lucky this year...so...yeah, we'll see)

Chargers 28-41 Patriots
I bought into the Charger offense, thought they'd find success in Foxboro but, no, it was the Pats offense that came out smoking: 4 TD's on their first four drives and this was over by halftime. Even though the Pats didn't do much in the 2nd half, the Chargers had little chance of pulling this out. The score makes it feel like the Chargers had a shot but they didn't. Feels like the Chargers are on the way up (but they share that division with the Chiefs, so wild card next year?).

Eagles 14-20 Saints
The Eagles came out quick, up 14-0 quick...and then...nothing. The Saints started slow but once they got going, their offense was good enough and the D was solid up the middle. Eagles didn't exactly kill it this year but they re-rode the Foles wave into the playoffs and generally look pretty good all around (outside of the QB controversy that will dog them in the off-season) and I expect them to be back in the post-season next year.


Next week

Patriots @ Chiefs (-3) (o/u 58)
When the Chiefs get rolling they're as good an offense as I've seen in a while, but even though Mahomes grew up in the industry, this is his 1st conference final and as admired as Andy Reid is, his success rate in these games is not great. On the other side is Brady and Belichick, in their 8th straight final four (that's getting into John Woodden territory). If the Chiefs play their best they'll win; but if they falter the Pats will be there to pounce. Now generally when the Pats falter it is against a superior pass rush (those Broncos and NYG teams that got to Brady, for example), which is not something the Chiefs possess. That said, last year the Eagles were able to run up the score and win in the Super Bowl, so it can be done. But the Eagles had Foles magic, while the Chiefs have a Rookie (-ish) QB and a notorious choker at Coach. This is a tough one but I kinda felt like the thumping the Chiefs laid on the Colts was a sign of things to come, Mahomes-Reid are set to become the new Belichick-Brady. (Also Chiefs over Pats was my pre-season pick, might as well stick with it) I'll say Chiefs 41-35 (Chiefs and the over)

Rams @ Saints (-3.5) (o/u 57)
The Saints (like the Chiefs on the other side) are the best team when they play their best game, especially at home. They've been playing well but they have tentative moments and the D is solid but maybe not strong enough to hold up against a high powered offense (like, say, the other 3 offenses left in this playoff). The Rams lit it up early in the season then ran out of gas. They have a lack of depth but they've got good talent on both offense and defense, good special teams and a badass coaching staff. So can the Rams go into New Orleans and get it done? Yes, they can. But though the Saints are tentative at times, they also have a tendency to steal W's late, they come back because the 2-minute offense removes all time to think. I think the Saints will struggle early (don't be surprised if the Rams are up at halftime) but pull it out in the 4th quarter. I'll go Saints 35-28 (Saints and the over)