2018-19 NFL (Week 15)

Games I watched (some of):
Chargers 29-28 Chiefs
Great game! Rivers threw a bad interception (he had his guy, just under threw the pass) on the opening drive, which the Chiefs quickly turned into a TD and it felt like this was gonna be vintage Chiefs. But the Chargers were able to sludge up that Chief attack (hmmm, has anyone done that this year?), keep the game kinda close and Rivers was able to move the ball on the mediocre Chiefs D (hmmm, maybe that defense's best game all year, no?). But when the Chiefs went up by two TD's early in the 4th, again it felt like they were gonna sneak away with the W. But Rivers was brilliant down the stretch and quickly got the Chargers a chance to win. And, yes, going for two at the end was the right play--even if it didn't work!--and the ballsy move paid off. Big big big W for the Chargers and tough L for the Chiefs (who didn't play badly), this might've swung the division and that is mind blowing considering how great the Chiefs have been all season long.

Packers 17-24 Bears
The Bears was better, not wildly better but enough better, and I sat there waiting for Rodgers to pull it out in the end...and...nah, that wasn't gonna happen. The Bears D is really really good, Trubisky is pretty good, the rushing attacks comes and goes, but in a parity season, the Bears have as good a shot as anyone at winning it all (yeah, "it all"!). The Packers are officially done for the season, they got a little bit of a bump after dumping Coach McCarthy but that last L to the Cards finished them off, I guess they shut down Rodgers, start evaluating player by player, I'd be surprised if they even came close to winning another game this year.

Raiders 16-30 Bengals
The Bengals are not good but they're playing hard right now and that'll keep them in games (keep an eye on them to cover spreads in the next coupla weeks). The Raiders are not good but...uh....they still have pretty cool uniforms.

Pats 10-17 Steelers
Surprised at how mediocre the Pats have been this year and this game was the highlight: the O line was not good, Edelman and Gordon dropped passes, Brady had the most inexplicable interception I've ever seen from him, and the defense did not rise to the occasion. That said, they still had their shot down the stretch (the last two drives, actually) to get it done, so it's not like the Steelers dominated anything. The Steelers have moments where that offense rises up and makes plays but not with any reliability and the D is shaky at best. The Steelers are still in the playoff race but that is kinda surprising, they'll need to beat suddenly feisty division foes to reach the post-season (and I'm not sure they get it done). The Pats have been down all year but they're still gonna be a tough out in the playoffs.

Eagles 30-23 Rams
Fun game! The Eagles had everything go their way, the Rams had everything fall apart for them. The Eagles had to go with Foles instead of Wentz and it was a nice shot in the arm for the Eagles--though they've been playing a little better lately. The popular theory on the Rams is that they frontloaded all their big signings and have no depth and now injuries are starting to cut into their efficiency--and I agree. They dominated for the first ten weeks or so but they've been very beatable lately, the vanilla offense is suddenly not at all impressive, the gambling on special teams isn't working, the defense is thin beyond the pass rush. The Rams are still good and have the ability to win games going forward but they look like they're slumping at the wrong time.


Other results (surprising):
Browns 17-16 Broncos
The Broncos had a nice stretch there where they looked like a legit playoff team but they still suck on the road and their lack of quality has brought them back to earth. The flipside is the Browns: they've got some talent but they're still young and they were sandbagged by a brutally awful coach for the first half of the year. Moving on from that dead weight has brought this team to life and they're playing much better down the stretch. Can the Browns actually make the playoffs? Nah, not seeing it, but the fact that they're hung around as long as they did is pretty miraculous (finally a good time to be a Browns fan again!). Not sure what the Broncos do for the rest of the season, not sure what's wrong with this team, they've had pleasant surprises on both sides of the ball but I reckon they'll make changes this off-season.

Saints 12-9 Panthers
The Saints have taken their foot off the gas in recent weeks and they're clearly not as good on the road, but I kinda thought the opportunity to dust off a division foe would bring out the best in them. Instead it seems like it was Cam Newton's questionable shoulder that sealed the victory for them. The Panthers are officially done, mailing it in from here (doubt they'll be covering any more spreads). The Saints are dominant at home, arguably the best team in the league and likely to finish 1st in the NFC....but...they're very beatable on the road and match up poorly against some folks they'll likely run into in the playoffs (I think the Seahawks and Bears could be troublesome for them, for example). I like the Saints, but I'm no more bullish on their chances than any number of other teams.


Other results (not so surprising):
Texans 29-22 Jets
The Texans have a good D and a good QB (I'm a big Watson fan) and a 9-game winning streak under their belt...so why are they so mediocre? I'm inclined to think they're pretty good and can be dangerous in the post-season but they are no dominant in any way and that's a little odd. I think they're gonna make the playoffs and be a tough out and this is a wide open year, so anything can happen (but is anyone betting on the Texans right now?). The Jets are spunky, they're just not any good, seems like they've got their QB but they'll need a new coach, so that'll keep the fans busy in the off-season.

Cards 14-40 Falcons
The Cards suck. The Falcons suck, too, but really they've just been exceptionally unlucky with injuries and when given the chance to run it up on a lame team at home, well, that's what happened. The Cards have their QB but not much else, they'll be busy in the off-season. The Falcons' injuries so warped their season that it's hard to tell what they need going forward, hard to see what the off-season looks like for them.

Lions 13-14 Bills
When two crappy teams get together, take the team that plays in Buffalo in December. Took them to the final play of the game to pull out the W, but the Bills got it. Yea! The Bills have a pretty good D (as always), a pretty good special teams (as always), a pretty good coach (I like McDermott), seem to have their QB (haven't had one of those in a while), just need to shore up that O-line (which, except for last year, has sucked for as long as anyone can remember) and bring in some skill players (they've had those over the years but never when they had a QB), they might be ready to take a run at the slipping-down Pats, right? The Lions have always sucked and frankly I think they've shown some spunk, if that defense becomes as good as it's supposed to be, they can be a real pain in the ass squad.

Cowboys 0-23 Colts
The Colts started slow but they're peaking at the right time, gonna be a tough out in the playoffs (they're not in yet but I like their chances) and are moving in the right direction for the first time in a few years. The Cowboys, too, have been playing better lately but they're still quite capable of laying an egg on the road and that's what happened here. The Cowboys are still in the driver's seat to take their division but they can have any more games like this.

Dolphins 17-41 Vikings
Dolphins suck on the road, this is not a shock. The Vikings ought to be better than they are and every once in while they actually are. The Dolphins are technically still in the playoff hunt but I'm not feeling their chances; the Vikings are, too, and I think they've got a good shot at being a real pain in the ass for someone.

Titans 17-0 Giants
The Giants are...man, they're the Giants...they're gonna replace Eli with Flacco, draft a QB in the 4th round and then declare that they're ready to take over the world. (Seriously, don't be at all surprised if they do all that) The Titans are weird, man, sometimes they look really good on both sides of the ball, other times they look like little kids fighting in the cafeteria. The Titans are still around, if the Colts and Texans mess around, the Titans could sneak in (but, unlike every other team I've mentioned so far, I don't like their chances to do anything in the playoffs).

Redskins 16-13 Jags
These teams both suck, looks like the Jags sucked a little more this week.

Bucs 12-20 Ravens
The Bucs are not good but they're playing loose right now (some bad teams mail it in, some teams play hard down the stretch and surprise people, Bucs could be one of those latter squads) but the Ravens at home are not going down to sub-standard teams like this. I gotta feeling the Ravens overtake the Steelers, we'll see.

Seahawks 23-26 (OT) Niners
Called it. The Seahawks have been playing well lately, seem to be getting their identity back on defense, Russell Wilson is moving the ball well, they've got their eyes on the playoffs, their momentum in positive....meanwhile, the Niners suck balls. But, it's a division game, anything can happen, man. You know the right thing for the Niners to do is roll over, take the L, get a better draft position and write this horrible nightmare season off. Yeah, but football players don't think like that, they see a chance to catch a division foe unfocused and they wanna piece of that. Good for the Niners, this W does absolutely nothing for them as an organization...except everyone feel much much better for one week. I still like the Seahawks to squeeze into the post-season (as the Eagles and Redskins melt out of their way).

2 weeks to go:
AFC
(in) Chiefs, Chargers, Texans, Pats; (one's in/one's out) Ravens/Steelers; (I think one's in/one's out) Colts, Titans; (out) Dolphins, Broncos, Browns, Bengals, Bills, Jags, Jets, Raiders

Looks to me like: Chargers/Texans bye; Chiefs @ Ravens; Colts @ Pats

NFC
(in) Saints, Rams, Bears; (probably in) Cowboys, Seahawks, Vikings; (probably out) Eagles, Redskins; (out) Packers, Panthers, Bucs, Giants, Lions, Falcons, Cards, Niners

Looks to me like: Saints/Rams bye; Seahawks @ Bears; Vikings @ Cowboys