AFC East
Pats (11) (over/12-4)
Dolphins (6.5) (over/7-9)
Bills (6) (push/6-10)
Jets (6) (under/2-14)
(12-4) I always kinda assume each year that this is the year it all falls apart for the Pats. Brady and Belichik allow the team to get by on a whole lotta duct tape and the moment something bad happens, that whole team can be pretty bad pretty fast. Is this the year? I don't see why it would be. They're still better than the rest of that division.
(7-9) As for the rest of that division, looks the same as ever to me. Dolphins have nothing at all and win 6-8 games every year. Seven W's seems crazy, but I don't see why not.
(6-10) Buffalo has had O-line problems since the Doug Flutie days (ahh, man, I'd love to have Doug Flutie right now), but usually has a good D, a decent running game and somehow manages to score more than you think possible. This year I don't think they reach their typical 8-8, but not too far off.
(2-14) I'm not buying the Jets, man. They've got their savior, they've finally got a coach that knows what he's doing and the fans are all excited...yeah, do you realize how often that happens? Every year. Every year they're like this. NYC is allergic to winning, the Yanks are still generally good but the rest of the teams have never been good and I don't see that changing any time soon (NYG and the Devils aren't NYC, which is why they are allowed success from time to time, Nets used to have that but they gave it up, *smh*). I bet NYJ isn't any better than Miami or Buffalo. It's cool, they'll be excited about a top five pick, it'll give them something new to complain about (just like every year).
AFC North
Steelers (10.5) (under/10-6)
Ravens (8) (over/10-6)
Bengals (6.5) (over/7-9)
Browns (5.5) (under/3-13)
(10-6) Ben took a step back last year, not hard to see him take another step back this year. That said, that offense could still be really good. And the defense, too. I don't see them going deep in the playoffs but I think they'll make it.
(10-6) Count me firmly in the crowd that loathes Joe Flacco, that guy had one good playoff run and made a whole career around it (impressive in its way). But I can see him being kinda good this year, if he can be good enough to set up the running game, that D is still good enough to keep them in pretty much every game. (I think this team covers a lot of underdog money) But I still got them behind the Steelers.
(7-9) I gotta feeling the Bengals are the team most like last year. They're the kind of organization that runs like clockwork...dull, uninspiring clockwork.
(3-13) The talent is moving in the right direction, I can see them having a good D line and running game (a la last year's Bears). They'll be in more games and should be more fun to watch, but I don't see them winning games until Coach Hue is gone (got a feeling that in the spring of 2019, this may be the coaching gig that everyone wants).
AFC South
Jags (9) (over/11-5)
Texans (8.5) (over/11-5)
Titans (8) (under/7-9)
Colts (6.5) (under/6-10)
(11-5) The Jags finally had some success after years of being terrible, do they keep it going or revert back to crappy form when they remember that their QB sucks? Ehh, I like that D to keep carrying them and that running game to keep bringing in some W's.
(11-5) If the Texans avoid the crushing injuries they had last year, they could be really really good. I think they stay healthy enough to scare some folks.
(7-9) The Titans are a team I could be totally wrong about. They've got decent talent all over the field, I like Mariotta at QB and you gotta think Mike Vrabel is gonna be a better coach than what they've had over the years. That said, I have to see it first, they look like a 7-9 squad to me.
(6-10) The Colts, too, I may be underrating, but Andrew Luck has been out so long, it's hard to imagine he just rides in and kicks ass. Especially since I thought that roster was bad when Luck was there and didn't improve when he left.
AFC West
Chiefs (8.5) (over/11-5)
Broncos (7) (over/8-8)
Chargers (9.5) (under/7-9)
Raiders (8) (under 4-12)
(11-5) I think the Chiefs are the most sturdy, reliable team in that division (and I kinda think the rest of the division is soft anyway). If Mahomes is half as good as the hype-sters believe, I think the Chiefs could handily crush that division.
(8-8) They look like a mess but that D-line is still really really good. If they can run the ball, they'll still be in most games.
(7-9) Yes, I know the Chargers are one those teams that everyone has their eye on. But I'm not seeing it. What's gonna happen this year that didn't happen last year? How have they improved? They have a knack for winning games they should lose and losing games they should win, which in this case leads me to think 7 W's at the most.
(4-12) I wasn't a big fan of the Raiders' chances this year anyway but giving away Kahlil Mack (not good enough deal to let go of one of the best players in the league) just finishes them off, no? Not only are they a mediocre roster, figuring out a new coach, now they just gave away their best player right before the season starts...must be crushing that locker room. I have no reason to think Gruden will be any good at all and it seems like he's trying to remold the whole roster on the fly...not good. They might be really really awful (like, really really awful).
NFC East
Eagles (10) (under/9-7)
Redskins (7) (over/9-7)
Cowboys (8.5) (under/7-9)
Giants (7) (under/6-10)(9-7) The Eagles are strangely not favored to win a lot of games this year but they do have a tough schedule. I think they're up and down all year but I still like them to win the division.
(9-7) I like the Redskins and I think Alex Smith is kinda perfect for them. I think they're up and down all year and just miss the playoffs.
(7-9) I had the Cowboys playing terrible early on, rallying late but coming up short. Right when you think the Cowboys are brutally bad, they'll go on a late run to sorta seem relevant.
(6-10) I think the Giants have their moments but finish in the bottom of the division (which is probably the worst fate possible for NYG fans).
NFC Central
Vikings (10) (over/13-3)
Packers (10) (over/12-4)
Bears (6.5) (under/6-10)
Lions (7.5) (under/5-11)
(13-3) This is a classic Vikings squad: killer D-line, killer O-line, pretty good skill players. Randy Moss ain't walking through that door but I like Kirk Cousins to step in and manage that offense just fine. The team runs itself, it's up to Cousins to make it work for him. I like them to kinda dominate the regular season.
(12-4) Rodgers makes all teams good. If he plays 16 games, they'll win at least 10. I like them to win 12 and roll into the playoffs (just like I thought last year).
(6-10) I was kinda impressed with the Bears last year, good RB and good D line, that's a good way for a bad team to get good. I like them to be better this year, especially with Kahlil Mack. But even thought I like Trubisky to take a (mild) step forward, they're in a tough division (2019-2020 could be their time).
(5-11) The Lions, man. They're good for five W's, not an un-fun team to watch, but not a team that's gonna win games.
NFC South
Saints (9.5) (over/11-5)
Panthers (9) (over/10-6)
Falcons (9) (over/10-6)
Bucs (6.5) (under/3-13)
(11-5) It feels crazy to pick the Saints to win 11 games but I dunno, why not? I think they kick ass at home, do well enough on the road and take the division.
(10-6) I thought I liked the Falcons better than the Panthers, but I ended up with Panthers 2nd and not making the playoffs. Ouch!
(10-6) I like to Falcons to have a good bounce back year and not make the playoffs either. Ouch!
(3-13) The day will come when the Bucs are good again, when that D is actually as good at it seems like it oughta be, when the QB troubles finally disappear, when the organization gets back to those days when it they were in the conference finals every year. But I don't think that day comes this year. I just don't see how they keep up in that division.
NFC West
Rams (10) (over/11-5)
Niners (8.5) (over/11-5)
Cards (5.5) (under/5-11)
Seahawks (8) (under/4-12)
(11-5) It took me several weeks last season to warm up to the Rams. I did though and I think they're gonna be good again.
(11-5) I'm in on Jimmy G. The way he rolled into that lineup last year and won games--when the team wasn't even trying!--I was impressed right away. That dude's good. (I bet Belichick's been hitting the Pepto hard since that trade) Throw in that the Cards and Seahawks are going in the wrong direction and I like the Niners to kick some ass.
(5-11) Last year they steadily descended into a tired bunch with nothing left to play for. The team deteriorated badly and, though I've always kinda liked Sam Bradford, I don't see how they get better. They got just enough talent to win five-ish games.
(4-12) Last year that offense was Russell Wilson making magic happen--if they'd made the playoffs he'd have been MVP--with no help at the skill positions and a terrible O-line. My guess is another year of that does not get any better and the vaunted D is pretty ordinary now. I can see them being pretty bad.
Playoff Predictions
AFC
Texans over Steelers, Chiefs over Ravens
Pats over Texans, Chiefs over Jags
Chiefs over Pats
NFC
Packers over Eagles, Saints over Niners
Vikings over Saints, Packers over Rams
Packers over Vikings
Super Bowl
Packers over Chiefs (a replay of SB I)
Something about these various numbers don't look right to me and looking back at the end of the season will undoubtedly look bizarre. But, here we are.
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