2018 World Cup (Quarterfinal predictions)

Uruguay - France -- France overpowered Argentina to get here while Uruguay calmly wore down Portugal. Both had amazing goals in their previous game, love to see a few more of those! France coasted through group play but really pulled it together against Argentina: they got a star-making performance out of Mbappe and some promising connection between Pogba and Griezmann, the way they're turning defense to offense is impressive. If they can get Giroud in on the action, too, then I think they'll be too much for Uruguay. As for Uruguay, the buzz now is that Cavani will be unavailable for Uruguay and that is a killer. Cavani and Suarez play like farm cats: you never know where they are and they're always looking for trouble. Without Cavani, Uruguay will lose a great deal of the big play chances, which will put serious pressure on their defense. Suarez is still dangerous but without Cavani, he's been cut in half. I gotta go with France.

Brazil - Belgium -- When Belgium went down 2-0 to Japan with 30 minutes to go, I still thought they'd win. My rationale was this: during the 1st half I was convinced that Belgium would get a goal and that they'd get a penalty. So though the world seemed to be crashing around them, it still felt like they were gonna score goals. I did not see that final goal coming (ouch! What a heart breaker for Japan) but nor was I shocked by it. Kudos to Japan for pressing forward to get the W in regulation, but against a full-on attack like Belgium, you're leaving yourself open for trouble. Belgium has serious offense, man, serious offense. In soccer you typically start with the defense, you have to keep the other team from scoring; Belgium is one of those rare teams that plans on outscoring opponents, they're not winning with defense, which is their Achilles' heel, they're trying to avoid playing defense. As for Brazil, I thought Mexico came out with the right game plan: attack Brazil, get them back pedaling, score a goal and then bunker. That goal never materialized and Brazil was able to gain strength from the Mexican attack. Brazil was kinda lackluster in the group stage but Mexico may have galvanized them. Brazil is one of those teams that gets W's without playing their best, which makes it hard to tell how good they actually are. Obviously they've got plenty of talent (dude, their 4th string could compete just fine in this tournament) but they crumble at times, too. Belgium will either bring out the best in Brazil or the worst. (Gut feeling: winner of this game takes the Cup)  If this goes to PK's, I think that favors Belgium; I think Brazil needs to score early. I'll take Brazil because Belgium does have a clear weakness: their wing defense will give Brazil chances. Unless Belgium dominates possession--dominates--then Brazil will get chances to score. And I assume they will. I'll take Brazil...but I also wouldn't be surprised if Belgium wins 3-0.

England - Sweden -- These two teams are here because they simply outlasted their previous opponents. England felt like they had the game against Colombia wrapped up when they gave Colombia an extra 30 minutes and a penalty kick lifeline thanks to a late goal (props to the English on the shootout, the one goal they missed was a legit save on a good shot, so none of those Englishmen whiffed on their chances). Sweden were able to wrap up Switzerland in regulation but the teams were virtually identical: same attack, same defense, same kinds of chances, same kind of goalkeeping, just a lucky goal keeping them from a penalty shootout. I still kinda thought Switzerland was slightly better but they're not in the quarterfinals, so I guess not. England is an interesting crew: some young, some old, but virtually all seem new to this int'l thing because England has been faulty for quite a stretch. And though they're certainly not a dominant side, they feel like a pretty good one, good mix of offense and defense, confidence without arrogance. They're ready to win and they have the skills. Sweden, too, has been out of the int'l game for a while but I don't feel their strengths, they're not gonna make dumb mistakes but I don't see them attacking England with much success. I gotta go with England to move on.

Croatia - Russia -- In the group stage, I thought Croatia was the best team: so strong on midfield possession, plenty of danger up front, very rigid in the back, the right mix of vets and youth, the right attitude and strategy. But they looked so sluggish against Denmark (not one of the more impressive squads of this tourney), even giving Denmark the opportunity to steal the game! So will Croatia stay that sluggish or was that the wake up call they needed? The answer to that question matters because Russia is the classic example of a lesser team that plays will reckless abandon and is capable of stealing a prize from a sleepy opponent. Russia ripped through a soft group and then (thankfully!) put Spain out of their misery. They are not as good as Croatia--indeed, I would comfortably put Russia 8th out of these final 8 teams. But they've got momentum, they've got a huuuuuuuge home field advantage and they're just happy to be here. If Croatia doesn't get their shit together they can lose to Russia, but if they do pull it together, they've got a path to winning the Cup. This is a wild card game, but I've got to go with Croatia because they're the better team.

After watching the tournament thus far I can't help wondering: why isn't Germany here? What the hell happened to those guys? You look at the remaining teams and size up their various strengths and weaknesses and it still feels like Germany has way more of the strengths and none of the weaknesses. They're not too old, they're not struggling with identity or turnover, they aren't over confident, they're not a sloppy team, they don't have internal problems (that I've heard of anyway), they've got top quality talent at every positions and plenty of depth. If they were still here, I'd probably take them as the fave. So why aren't they here?