2018-19 Cleveland Cavs

2017-18: 50-32 (4th in the East, lost in the Finals)
Draft picks: 8
Signed for next season ($137.9m): Lebron James, Kevin Love, George Hill, Tristan Thompson, JR Smith, Jordan Clarkson, Kyle Korver, Cedi Osman, Larry Nance, Ante Zizic

This summer's free agents: Rodney Hood, Jose Calderon, Jeff Green, Kendrick Perkins, Okaro White, John Holland, London Perrantes
I don't see why Hood, Green, Perkins and White would be back next year, but I can see them going for another year of Calderon. Holland and Perrantes are on 2-way contracts.

Obviously: the player option of Lebron James is the first order of business. If Lebron leaves, the whole world is turned upside own. First, I'd guess they'd fire Tyron Lue and begin the search for a new coach; then I reckon either Love, Hill, Thompson and/or Smith gets traded (I'd trade away all four if I could, pile up as many draft picks as possible); then that #8 pick becomes the "new savior" (without Lebron, I'd look to swap #8 for the Clippers #12 and #13); they re-sign Hood and roll into next year with a new coach, a new youth movement and a relatively new supporting cast (Nance, Osman, Korver, Hood and whoever they get in return for the more expensive players). Then they settle into a Charlotte Hornets-like mediocrity for a while with an eye on stockpiling draft picks. Wow, it's a whole different world, huh?

On the other hand, if Lebron does come back, it'd look pretty much like this year....which is why Lebron not coming back seems more likely, right? Personally, I think Lebron comes back and we go through all this again next summer (when he becomes steadily more likely to leave). Lebron could go to the Lakers but in the West he'd likely have to face the Warriors and the Rockets, which is not much fun. I thought the Spurs were a possibility, though the sudden news that Kawhi wants out would probably put the kibosh on that move (can they get Kawhi to Cleveland...? Uhhhh, no). I don't think the Sixers are interesting to Lebron and talk of the Celtics is worth noting, but I don't see it happening. So, outside of the Lakers, I don't see anywhere for Lebron to go. He's outgrown the league. And, though no one else may agree with me, Love and Thompson are good fits for Lebron and the Cavs.

So where do the Cavs go? Let's start with a pointless trade idea: Hawks get #8 pick, George Hill; Cavs get Kent Bazemore.
First off, you better believe the Hawks are gonna be the belle of the ball this summer: they've got room to take on bad contracts and no pressing need to be good at basketball. Bazemore is their one tradeable asset (I think they're married to Schroeder, for better or worse), perhaps they can do better than George Hill, but his contract is virtually identical to Bazemore's, he'll give them minutes on the floor without much danger of actually winning games and that #8 pick must be pretty tantalizing (if Michael Porter drops to 8 because of medical concerns, grab him and give him the year off; the Hawks are in Process mode, they don't need the #8 pick to actually play next year anyway). Can the Hawks do better than this? Maybe, but getting rid of Bazemore isn't a bad thing and they want draft picks first and foremost.

For the Cavs, if Lebron comes back then who cares about #8? And turning Hill into a contributor with the exact same price tag would be a great move. I think Hill gives the Cavs nothing but a reminder of his inability to make the game winning free throw in Game One. In short Hill's gotta go and, yeah, Bazemore isn't a perfect fit but he's got energy, he'll play minutes and he'll appreciate a shot at winning since he's basically never been on a good team. It's an expensive price to pay to bring in Bazemore but it's worth it to get rid of Hill. (Speaking of getting rid of goats (the bad kind), is there any way they can talk the Jazz into taking JR Smith for Alec Burks? (I don't see how, probably not possible anyway))

The Cavs are in a tough spot next year with or without Lebron. With Lebron, they'd be running back the same so-so team but they'd have Lebron; without, they'd be stuck with the same so-so team but they wouldn't have Lebron (yipes!). I think getting rid of Hill and Smith is absolutely necessary and giving up the #8 pick will be the price to pay to make one or both of those guys disappear (and likely getting back a player/contract even worse than Kent Bazemore).

Okay, okay, let's assume that none of that happens and Lebron comes back. What do the do with #8? Chances are there is nobody out there that Lebron particularly wants to play with, so I'd make the same suggestion to the Cavs that I made above to the Hawks: take Michael Porter, shut him down, forget that he's even there and run him out there in 2019-2020 (with or without Lebron). If they really want someone to play right now, I guess they'll be targeting Trae Young as their replacement for Kyrie/Isiah (I think that's a pipe dream but it is the upside, I suppose). I think Jaren Jackson is a guy they would actually play but I think he'll be gone. (Getting rid of this pick--even after it's been picked--is much more likely than the Cavs rolling into next season with a high profile rookie, since outside of Porter, Jackson and Young, none of the other top prospects even fit Cleveland anyway)

So realistically the Cavs are looking at PG Hill, SG Smith, SF Lebron, PF Love, C Thompson with Clarkson, Korver, Osman and Nance off the bench. Not a super exciting squad but I think they'd still get through the East. That team is solid if unspectacular, if they just maintain some consistency, Lebron can still carry them the way he always has. As bad as Clarkson looked at times in the playoffs (dude, there was a moment in Game Two where he just looked like a little kid that had no idea what he was doing out there that will stay with me for a while, ha!), but as a night in/night out regular season PG off the bench, he'll be fine taking up minutes. And I still think that as Lebron gets used to Nance he will genuinely like playing with him. Over the course of a full regular season, I think if the Cavs return this exact same squad, they'll be better than the were this past season. Good enough to get past the Celtics and Sixers? Yeah, sure, why not?

So far they still have Lebron, so now I will hit 'PUBLISH'.