Thursday, February 22, 2018

2017-18 NBA Bric-a-Brac (All-Star Week)

No moves to report this week as everyone has been taking the week off (though I half expected to see that Fergie's ear for music was out for the rest of the year). Though it is a bit beyond halfway through the season, now seems like a good time to look over my pre-season predictions.

MVP
I went with Lebron (Cavs), not a bad pick, he's certainly in the running. But clearly for now James Harden (Rockets) is the MVP. His efficiency is still incredible and now with Chris Paul, he finally has a foil with whom to breeze through the regular season. I expect Lebron and Harden to be the top two vote-getters although I suppose one could argue Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks) may well have another gear to get to and if you're looking for a crazy longshot I guess Anthony Davis (Pelicans) and Blake Griffin (Pistons) have potential for miracle-working. Otherwise, I can't really point to anyone on those Warriors or Celtics squads, DeRozan (Raptors) and Jimmy Butler (Wolves) are having great years but not MVP-type years, the Wizards seem to be better without John Wall, and no one else in the west really stands out.

Rookie of the Year
I'll still go with Ben Simmons (Sixers) though Donovan Mitchell (Jazz) has certainly been impressive lately; Simmons is still leading all rookies in pretty much everything (except PPG in which he's 2nd to Mitchell). After those two I'd rank them Lauri Markkanen (Bulls) (way better than I thought he'd be), Jaysun Tatum (Celtics) (I'd say Markannen is more important to his team but Tatum is already a reliable contributor on a really good team), Kyle Kuzma (Lakers) (kid can shoot), Dennis Smith (Mavs) (perhaps I'm overrating him a little because the Mavs are so...nothing right now, but the kid's a badass), Bogdan Bogdanovic (Kings) (I watch a lot more of the Kings than I should and I think this kid's really fucking good, perhaps I'm overrating him but I suspect no one else is watching him), Lonzo Ball (Lakers) (he started out overrated, then went through an underrated period, out for while and feels like people are finally properly rating him; so will he close the season over- or underrated?). After that I've really liked DeAaron Fox (Kings), OG Anunoby (Raptors), Bam Adebayo (Heat), John Collins (Hawks), Frank Ntilikina (Knicks), Dillon Brooks (Grizzlies), Josh Jackson (Suns), Josh Hart (Lakers), Daniel Theis (Celtics). (Pleased to report that in my preview I never once mentioned Markelle Fultz (Sixers)).

Defensive Player of the Year
Kevin Durant (Warriors) and Anthony Davis (Pelicans) are honestly the only two I could come up with. (I dunno, does it seem like no one's playing defense this year?) Kawhi (Spurs) hasn't played, Gobert (Jazz) was out for a long stretch, Deandre Jordan (Clippers) has been more noted for trade talk than blocked shots and the Celtics play a solid team defense but there are no particular standours. Demarcus Cousins (Pelicans) was having a great year at both ends but he's out now.

6th Man
I never would've thought it...but gotta go with Lou Williams (Clippers). He's having another great season off the bench. There's a lot of season left though, still time for Eric Gordon (Rockets), Julius Randle (Lakers), Jordan Clarkson (Cavs), Rodney Hood (Cavs) to shine out. And keep an eye on my man Bogdan Bogdanovic (Kings).

Coach of the Year
I cannot go with Mike D'Antoni (Rockets) or Dwayne Casey (Raptors), I'm just not convinced that they're good coaches. Nor can I go with Ty Lue (Cavs) or Steve Kerr (Warriors). It's typical to go with the top of the table coaches but I'm not buying it. My pre-season picks were Steve Clifford (Hornets) because I thought there was a slight chance that the Hornets could be vastly improved (uh....nope) and Mike Malone (Nuggets) because I thought he held the key to maximizing the team. Well, Clifford is clearly out but I'm sticking with Malone. And in the East I'll go with Nate MacMillan (Pacers), a surprise pick for sure, but the Pacers are way better than I would've thought possible and you gotta credit the coach with getting the most out of a weird collection of players trying to replace a legend. That said, Brad Stevens (Celtics) will have to lot of say in whether the Celtics can hold off the Cavs and/or catch the Raptors. And with the crazy tightness in the West, I wouldn't be surprised to see Gregg Popovich (Spurs) get some votes this year (or none at all).

Executive of the Year
I assumed either the Thunder and the Celtics had this in the bag based on their bang-up off-seasons. But gotta give the Cavs credit for pulling off some nifty moves at the trade deadline. Meanwhile, the Thunder have shown sparks but still haven't quite found their groove yet. The Celtics are still in the running (mainly because I still like them to finish ahead of the Cavs) but they've been struggling lately leaving room for the new look Cavs to bust out in the East. I also still like the Kings moves this year: redeeming the overpriced asset that was George Hill was a move well done and cuttung bait on Papagiannis looks like a waste but one could argue it was a mature and gutsy move.

East
I had Celtics, Raptors, Cavs, Wizards as the top 4; feels like the Raptors will hold on to the top spot but I like the Celtics to hold off the Cavs. Next I had Heat, Bucks, Hornets, Pistons; the Pacers have overachieved and the Sixers are ahead of schedule it seems to me, but the Bucks are where they ought to be and the Heat are only slightly off the pace. As for the Pistons, I dunno, I never know what to do with them, maybe they're good or maybe not, I dunno. And, well, I went out on a limb that the Hornets would be a surprise this year....no, they kinda suck just like they were supposed to. And the Knicks, Bulls, Nets, Magic and Hawks are all on track.

West
I had the Warriors, Thunder, Rockets and Spurs as the top 4; and so far I'm not too far off. The Rockets are better than I thought they'd be (though I'm still dubious of them as a playoff team), and the Warriors are still awesome (but haven't yet showed much killer instinct). But #3 through #10 right now are seperated by only 4.5 games so anything's possible going forward--yes, even the Spurs falling completely out of the post-season! I didn't believe in the Pelicans and though they've got a playoff spot at the moment, I still don't believe in them. I initially predicted Nuggets, Clippers, Wolves, Jazz but I can't see the Clippers being there at the end (Lou Williams for MVP if they do). The Wolves are looking at home games in the post-season, I'm still in on the Thunder, I think the Jazz have room to get better (after getting in a good groove lately). So that last playoff spot is down to the Blazers, Pelicans and Clippers and out of those three, I gotta go Blazers.


New post-season prediction
Raptors over Sixers (the youngsters will give the Raptors just enough of a test)
Celtics over Heat (Heat are wacky but the Celtics will get it done)
Cavs over Wizards (you know Lebron always sweeps the 1st round, right?)
Bucks over Pacers (fun series, I like the Bucks' athleticism to pull it out)
Rockets over Blazers (Rockets have too much offense)
Warriors over Jazz (Jazz will give the Warriors a good test)
Thunder over Nuggets (Thunder in 5)
Wolves over Spurs (Unless Kawhi comes back with a chip on his shoulder, I don't like the Spurs)

Raptors over Bucks (fun series!)
Cavs over Celtics (I like the Celtics, but they're not ready to beat Lebron)
Rockets over Wolves (Wolves aren't ready, Rockets will run them out)
Warriors over Thunder (best series of the post-season)

Cavs over Raptors (yeah...are you ready for another Raptor sweep?)
Warriors over Rockets (I don't believe in the Rockets as a playoff team, Warriors will be ready)

Warriors over Cavs in 6 (Warriors will be ready to show off that they're still the best)

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