2017-18 NFL (Wild Card Round)

Saturday
Titans @ Chiefs (-8.5)
(Hmmmm....worth noting Chiefs 30-6 Titans in the last game of the pre-season? Pre-season is generally meaningless but that last week kinda indicates what the teams were intending to be this season, right?)

The Chiefs began the season 5-0 including wins over Pats, Eagles, Rams, arguably the three best teams in the league. They looked monstrous, they were moving the ball in all directions, everyone was clicking, they suddenly looked dangerous, which the Chiefs have never looked before. They still have solid linebackers to crunch through a classic bend-don't-break defense. Felt like they were going to fly past everyone all year long. Then they had a tough loss to the Steelers, then a tough loss to the Raiders, both games they should've/could've won that got away from them. Rebounded with a W at the flailing Broncos. Felt like they were ready to clobber again but took an L at Dallas before going into a bye week. The Chiefs still looked better than everyone else at this point but had some wobble to them after a dominant start. Then came the low: 12-9 OT loss @ Giants, L to Buffalo, L to NYJ (capped off by a memorable tirade involving a frustrated defensive back and a referee's flag (dude, how was he not tossed for that?)). They looked bad all over the field, the magic that Smith had in the beginning of the year turned him to a pumpkin. the defense looked all out of shape, the frustration was palpable. But that Jets game shook 'em, I reckon. Since then they've finished with a 4-game winning streak over division and conference foes and scored plenty o' points while doing so. Not as flashy but every bit as effective as the early part of the season.

Break it down: Steelers D just flummoxes Reid (not a bad loss); Raiders and Jets, they actually played good but got overwhelmed by dumb mistakes and big plays (two dumb losses); Cowboys loss was a lackluster performance (one effort loss); but the Giants and Bills games are just terrible performances from top to bottom (two indefensible, inexplicable losses). I think the Chiefs are better for having gotten those games out of their system. I think they're ready to rock, I think everybody is shaky and still thinking the Chiefs are shaky when actually the Chiefs have pretty well worked out their offensive woes. The Chiefs scored at least 24 points in all but four games (all four of which they lost); they scored 30 points in two L's this year. This offense is sneaky good and that mid-season swoon may have taken the eyes off the team best positioned to come out of the AFC.

The Titans--hell I figured they drop out of the playoffs down the stretch, just didn't think they were good enough to hang. But here they are. Wins this year: Jags, Seahawks, Colts, Browns, Ravens, Bengals, Colts, Texans, Jags. (Meh) They were lucky to catch the Jags early when they weren't ready to kick ass and late when the Jags didn't need to win. Ravens and Seahawks were sloppy veteran teams that are watching the playoffs this year. And Colts, Bengals, Browns and Texans were among the worst in the league. Okay, I'll say it: this is a lucky 9 win team. The Losses: Raiders, Texans, Dolphins, Steelers, Cards, Niners, Rams. Okay, to their credit only one bad L (Dolphins). We all thought the Raiders would be good, so not a bad L in week one (before we knew they sucked). The Texans weren't good for much of the season but had a flash of greatness when Deshaun Watson appeared, credit the Titans to at least losing to a good QB. Steelers, Cards are solid veteran teams that know how thump punks like Tennessee, Niners had the Jimmy G phenomenon, and the Rams just punish bad defenses. So what can we say? They'll beat really bad teams but they won't beat a really good team. So are the Chiefs closer to the best they've looked this year (would easily stomp the Titans) or the worst they've looked this year (hey, Titans got a shot if the score is 9-6)? I'm guessing gooder than badder.

(-8.5) is kinda large for a playoff game but it looks to me like the Chiefs will score and the Titans won't. I expect something like Chiefs 30-6.


Falcons @ Rams (-6.5)
The Rams have sucked for quite some time but they were damn impressive this year. Three different stretches of their season: first 5 weeks (blew out the Colts, won two shootouts on the road; lost tough sludge fests to Redskins and the dreaded Seahawks); next 9 weeks (7-2, impressive thumpings of Jax, Giants, Cards twice, Texans, Saints, and a much needed beatdown of the dreaded Seahawks; also in the stretch they got shut down by the Vikings tough D and saw up close the last of the red hot Eagles offense, losses to among the best squads in the league); last two weeks they mailed it in, still got a W at Tennessee. These guys are good on both sides of the ball, deep, hungry, well-coached, and play an offense that is smart and aggressive. I like the way they run up the points on people, normally kind of a dick move but when teams have sucked for a long time, laying beatdowns on rivals is a wonderful thing, a clear sign of  new beginning. Young teams need luck and avoiding Rodgers throughout the season and Wentz through the playoffs puts us on a path for the Rams to get their rematch with the Vikings, right?

Falcons flummoxed me all year long. Their offense was so fucking good last year, for them to drop to a barely-playoff team just because they lost their OC is absurd to me. But here we are, the defending champs are rolling into the NFC limping and backward. No reason for it, that offense is well-equipped to rock anyone's world, I just saw it last year! But I can't get excited about their chances outdoor, on grass against a young hungry Rams team.

(-6.5) seems about right. I like the Rams to control the game early and thoroughly but for the Falcons to score late to keep it feeling close. Rams 27-20. I'll take the Rams.


Sunday
Bills @ Jags (-8.5)
The Jags started the season with 3 good W's (Texans, Ravens, Steelers) and 3 tough L's (Titans, Jets, Rams).  Then a 7-1 stretch: W's over Colts, Bengals, Chargers, Browns, Colts, Seahawks, Texans with a tough loss @Cards thrown in there. Then they got posterized by Jimmy G and mailed it in against the Titans. I dunno, man, not sure I'm too blown away by anything in there. Why are we so full of the Jags? That D is solid but are they really any good? Kudos for maximizing their opportunities but I don't really see a standout moment in there. They played a tomato can schedule.

The Bills started 5-2 (good win @Falcons, bad loss Bengals); then had a 3 game losing streak (a shit spiral on both sides of the ball, even leading to a QB controversy); then finished 4-2 (throw in on Tyrod, got the family feeling back, got swept by the Pats but got it done in the other games). This is a typical Bills team, good D, good special teams, bad OL, skimpy on skill positions, no offensive identity, slightly luckier than previous vintages but still very much a classic Bills squad. Gotta love the coaching staff's ability to recover from three straight bad losses and getting typically swept by the Pats.

I dunno, I guess the Jags are better but not vastly so and they're actually similar teams. I don't think either team scores a lot and if Shady McCoy doesn't play (didn't I hear broken ankle? Do we think he's gonna play?), the Bills might not score at all. I'll take the Jags to win, but I don't think they run up any points, I expect the Bills to hang around and at least kinda maybe be dangerous-ish. I'll say Jags 16-10.


Panthers @ Saints (-6.5)
All season long the Saints left me skeptical: when they crank up the offense, they can still hang with anyone in the league but they have a tendency to wait til the last minute to get their game on and that kinda scares me. Looking back over their schedule they had a strong Atlanta Braves-ish kinda year: handled the teams that aren't that good (Dolphins, Lions, Bears, non-Rodgers Packers, Bucs, Bills, Redskins, Jets, a sweep over the Panthers) but struggled against teams that are good (Vikings, Pats, Rams). They've already beat the Panthers twice this year, tough to win thrice.

The Panthers are the weirdest team of the year: W's against the Pats, Vikings, Packers (w/Rodgers). Then didn't even show up against the Saints (twice), Falcons or Bears (and barely squeaked by the Bills). If they show up I know they can beat the Saints--p\or anyone in the league--but I don't expect them to show up. (They are a great candidate to get hot and blast through January, but I wouldn't bet on it)

I'll take the Panthers to keep it close though I like the Saints to win. I'll say Saints 24-20.