2017-18 NCAA Football Bowls (Week 3)

12/30
Louisville (-7) - (23) Mississippi State (o/u 63)
My interactions with these two squads this year mostly revolved around the similar thumpings they laid on Kentucky this year. Louisville kinda hung with Clemson...through the 1st quarter...pretty much get smoked from then on; while Mississippi State gave Alabama a scare before a last minute game winning TD from the Tide. Neither had particularly good years, I think the conventional wisdom is that Louisville was a slight disappointment, Mississippi State was a slight upside surprise, that probably makes them about even. I can see Louisville winning but I think this'll be a close game whoever wins. I'll take Mississippi State and the under.

Iowa State (+4) - (20) Memphis (o/u 67)
I thought this was kinda of a disappointing matchup in the sense that these teams could upset other better teams, pairing them up seems like just one so-so game when you could've had two good ones. Oh well. Iowa State had some shockingly good W's (@Oklahoma, TCU, gave Oklahoma State a good run) and a coupla lame losses (Iowa, Texas, both at home), you gotta figure on a good day they could beat Memphis; meanwhile Memphis beat everyone they played that wasn't Central Florida (Memphis Kryptonite apparently) and ran up points without effort on all of them: only failed to score 30 once this year, only failed to score 40 thrice, these guys can play some offense. Do the sludgy Cyclone slow down the Tiger attack? I say no. I'll take Memphis and the over. 

(11) Washington (+2.5) - (9) Penn State (o/u 54.5)
Penn State comfortably pummeled most of their schedule early on (Pitt, Indiana, Northwestern, Michigan) though they did get a strange test from Iowa. Then they had the Buckeyes beat, blinked and took an L there and another at Michigan State, another game they probably should've won. After that they pummeled some more lesser opponents (Rutgers, Nebraska, Maryland) but were never in the playoff conversation any more. Washington straight thumped most everyone they played (though no one terrible distinguished), only faltered when the score was kept low (L's to Arizona State, Stanford, close W to Utah). If Penn State doesn't letdown after a disappointing regular season where they had the playoff in their grasp and let it slip, then I think they're a better team than Washington, but if they falter Washington can hang with them. I'll take Penn State and the under.

(10) Miami (+6) - (6) Wisconsin (44.5)
I was skeptical of Miami all year, though I gotta give props to W's over Virginia Tech and Notre Dame, both of whom I thought would handle the Hurricanes. I was skeptical of Wisconsin too, who managed to get to the Big 10 Championship without a single top flight W, but I thought they outplayed Ohio State (though they didn't outscore them). I suspect Wisconsin is legit and could run right over Miami, but the Hurricanes tend to do their best work against good teams and though  Clemson made them look pretty silly I think Clemson's really good whereas Wiscosin is just the kinda good that Miami shows up for. I'll take Miami and the over.


1/1
Michigan (+7.5) - South Carolina (o/u 42.5)
I thought both teams were strangely disappointing but not terrible teams. I dunno: I can see either team winning big or close. In that case, I'll go dog. I'll take Michigan to cover and the over.

(12) Central Florida (+10) - (7) Auburn (o/u 67.5)
I'm betting Auburn is hungover, getting so close and getting smoked by UGA in the rematch must be killing them. Central Florida handled everyone they played, most without much effort. Are they good enough to go toe-to-toe with one of the better SEC squads? One that isn't into the game, yes! I'll take Central Florida to keep it close, to move the ball better than Auburn is expecting. I think that number is high, don't think either team will score enough to get to that, though I can see both teams have moments of success. I'll take Central Florida to keep it close and the under.

(14) Notre Dame (+3) - (17) LSU (o/u 51.5)
Both teams had disappointing losses: Notre Dame to Miami (a good Hurricane drubbing would've made for a fine Fighting Irish season) and a thrashing to Stanford (ugh! Big game and they were never in it); while LSU lost to Mississippi State (straight thumping to a routine conference for) and a howler to Troy (one of the surprising upsets of the year). I imagine both of these squads to be rather disappointed, whoever comes in wanting it  more has a good chance. I'll take Notre Dame (better coach) and the under.

(3) Georgia (-2) - (2) Oklahoma (o/u 60)
This is a good matchup, I have no idea which is the better team--and that's what you want in a semi-final contest. Georgia has the superior running game, Oklahoma the classic passing offense. Both teams have solid defenses and special teams, so it comes down to who can impose their will more effectively on the opposing defense. Hard call: OU can throw the ball at will, UGA can run it down anyone's throat. Wouldn't be surprised to see both teams have success in the 1st half, close game at halftime making for a blistering 2nd half. I'll go with Oklahoma and the under because...I dunno, I gotta pick one of 'em. 

(4) Alabama (-3) - (1) Clemson (o/u 47)
The power of Alabama is that they made the final four without a significant W all year long. They only played one really good team (Auburn) and they lost. They didn't make the SEC championship, their W's over Florida State and Fresno State aren't terribly impressive and they didn't exactly dominate their mediocre conference foes Texas A&M, LSU and Mississippi State. Could be they were just waiting around all year for this game but failure to get past Auburn and play in the SEC championship is a serious indictment against this particular Crimson Tide squad. (Just for the record, I would've taken Ohio State because beating Wisconsin and winning their conference is better than anything Alabama has done this year) Clemson, on the other hand, I thought was the best team all year long--their loss at Syracuse was the most shocking upset of the entire season. I think Clemson is deep and talented at every position and even though they lost last year's badass QB, I think this year's badass QB is going to handle Alabama just fine. They beat Auburn, Louisville, Wake Forest, NC State, Virginia Tech and kicked the crap outta Miami to put a final touch on the regular season. Clemson has better W's, better talent, loads of experience, I think they're the better team and making them an underdog is kinda daffy. I'll take Clemson and the over.