2017-18 NCAA Football (Week 13)

(1) Alabama 14-26 (6) Auburn
Impressive win for Auburn. Coming out of the 2nd half, Alabama went right down and scored to regain the lead and it felt like the Tide was gonna roll. But Auburn answered and when Alabama muffed a FG, Auburn rode the momentum smothering Bama down the stretch. Alabama's QB didn't look comfortable in the pocket, he runs well but I thought he was too eager to run instead of pushing the ball downfield and what was up with two straight bad snaps in crunch time? Okay, this sets up Alabama as a potential to sneak into the playoff even without making it to the SEC final. I like Auburn's chances to thump Georgia once more and head on into the playoff.

(3) Clemson 34-10 (24) South Carolina
Clemson have lucked their way back to the top of the rankings, right as they head into the ACC final against Miami. I've thought Clemson was a top-4 team all year long but after that puzzling loss to Syracuse, I thought they might not get back into it. But here they are, sailing in possibly as #1 overall. As for South Carolina...uh....stay gold, pony boy.

(8) Notre Dame 20-38 (21) Stanford
This was one last chance for Notre Dame to sneak their way into the playoff--long shot but not impossible--but getting drilled by Stanford was not a good way to finish off the season. Narrow loss to Georgia, looked good against their weaker competition, but getting tagged by Miami and Stanford drops them pretty deep into the second tier. Stanford did not really register with me all year long (frankly the PAC was a big ol' pile of nothing special, I thought), but picking up a top ten W heading into their rematch with Southern Cal is nice. I see no scenario where Stanford gets into the playoff but if they can drop a bomb on USC, they'll definitely snag a top quality bowl.

(13) Washington State 14-41 (17) Washington
Man, Cougars did not show up for this one. Needed to take this one to get into the Pac-12 final and they were never in this game. It seems like the entire PAC was pretty good but not all that this season and the difference between these two teams was razor thin. That said, Huskies clearly wanted this one more.


Top 25
Handled their business
(3) Clemson, (4) Oklahoma, (5) Wisconsin, (6) Auburn, (7) Georgia, (9) Ohio State, (10) Penn State, (12) TCU, (15) Central Florida (dubbed by some the game of the year), (16) Michigan State, (17) Washington, (18) LSU, (19) Oklahoma State, (20) Memphis, (21) Stanford, (22) Northwestern, (25) Virginia Tech


Not so good
(1) Alabama. Still got a shot at the playoff--maybe better than if they'd won!
(2) Miami. They get up for the big games but are curiously sloppy in the low key contests. That would seem to bode well for their ACC final against Clemson, except that I think Clemson is way better.
(8) Notre Dame. Yeah, they had a shot at something special but a no-show this week finished them off.
(13) Washington State. Needed this one, did not get it.
(14) Mississippi State. Lost to their in-state rival, came close to having a really good year.
(23) Boise State. In and out of the top 25 all year long.
(24) South Carolina. Yeah, no reason they should've been ranked this high at this point.


Next week's games
(14) Stanford @ (11) Southern Cal
Down the stretch I think Stanford is playing better and are well-positioned to avenge their loss to USC earlier this year. Southern Cal came into the year with (absurdly) high expectations, honestly their best W all year was thumping Stanford early on. All the PAC teams look pretty much the same to me so I'll stick with Stanford (+3) to win.

(10) TCU @ (2) Oklahoma
I'm not convinced that Oklahoma is vastly better than their Big 12 competition but they have endured more than everyone else and their QB is balling out right now. TCU has an explosive offense but it disappears from time to time. If Oklahoma turns the ball over, TCU could get some momentum going and pile up some points, but I still like Oklahoma (-7) to get the W.

(5) Georgia @ (4) Auburn
To my eye Georgia is overrated every year. Much like St. John's in NCAA basketball, Georgia is a school that all the scribes have heard of and that alone manages to sneak them into the pre-season prognostications. But this year I was impressed with Georgia's ability to roll with what they encountered until they played Auburn (and also before it became apparent that the SEC East was as bad as I think I've ever seen it). Auburn, on the other hand, dropped a game to Clemson (one of the best teams in the country) and had an odd fail at LSU, but have otherwise easily bested everyone they've played including #1 Alabama. I think Auburn is the better team overall and they're playing better right now. I'll go with Auburn (-2.5) to control this game throughout.

(7) Miami @ (1) Clemson
Miami has annoyed me all year long: I thought nothing of their long winning streak of barely squeaking past so-so opponents, figuring that Virginia Tech and Notre Dame would trip them up; not only did that not happen, Miami dropped bombs on the only two good teams they played this year. But they finally got burned by not-even-any-good Pittsburgh ahead of the ACC final. Clemson is good. So will Miami show up and dropkick Clemson? I'm not seeing it. I think Clemson has been properly chastened by their head-scratching loss to Syracuse and will resume their quest to repeat as champions. I like Clemson (-10) to win easily (though I'm a little queasy about a double digit spread in a championship game).

(8) Ohio State @ (3) Wisconsin
Ohio State is a weird one: some weeks they look like classic Buckeyes, but just as often they look like they're just hanging on. This makes them the most unpredictable team: they might be great or they might be terrible and there's no real reason for either! Wisconsin, on the other hand, is clockwork week after week: run up the middle then stuff the opponent with their standup D-line (the old school Nebraska playbook). My gut is Ohio State's best is better than Wisconsin's best but that Wisconsin's average is decidedly better than Ohio State's average. So is this a big game or an average game? I think I'll take average. I think Wisconsin (+5.5) plays their game, grinds down the Buckeyes and exploits whatever mistakes they can cause.


So how's playoff looking? I'll go with Clemson, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Auburn.